{"id":597477,"date":"2021-07-19T21:35:19","date_gmt":"2021-07-20T01:35:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=597477"},"modified":"2021-07-19T21:35:26","modified_gmt":"2021-07-20T01:35:26","slug":"impossible-to-pinpoint-why-2020-polls-were-the-least-accurate-in-decades-report-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/impossible-to-pinpoint-why-2020-polls-were-the-least-accurate-in-decades-report-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Impossible\u2019 To Pinpoint Why 2020 Polls Were The Least Accurate In Decades, Report Finds"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fimpossible-to-pinpoint-why-2020-polls-were-the-least-accurate-in-decades-report-finds%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=597477&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Presidential polls surveying November\u2019s election were the least accurate in 40 years and state polls were the worst in the past 20, a report released Monday shows.<\/p>\n<p>While the <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/AAPOR_Main\/media\/MainSiteFiles\/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL_embargo.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">report<\/a> from the American Association for Public Opinion Research outlines how far off the polls were, it was unable to directly attribute what led to the inaccuracy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe could rule some things out, but it\u2019s hard to prove beyond a certainty what happened,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2021\/07\/18\/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said<\/a> Josh Clinton, a Vanderbilt University professor and chair of the 19-member election task force, Politico reported. \u201cBased on what we know about polling, what we know about politics, we have some good prime suspects as to what may be going on.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>One of the main \u201cprime suspects,\u201d the report notes, is a lack of response to polls in the first place, echoing other pollsters who have tried to diagnose why they were so off. Other <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/04\/13\/donald-trump-polls-elections-2020\/\">reports<\/a> have attributed polls\u2019 growing inaccuracy to Republicans\u2019 unwillingness to participate in them, exacerbated by former President Donald Trump repeatedly labeling any surveys he did not like as \u201cfake.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Presidential polls in the final two weeks before the election were off by about 4.5 points, the report said, while state polls were off by just over five. While President Joe Biden\u2019s support was only overestimated by about a point, Trump\u2019s was underestimated by over three.<\/p>\n<p>The task force behind the report observed 2,858 polls, of which 529 were of the national presidential race and 1,572 were of the race at state levels.&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/04\/13\/donald-trump-polls-elections-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: Top Pollsters Detail What They Think Led Them To Blow The 2020 Election<\/a>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_7019467\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" readability=\"33\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7019467\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-7019467\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1277457784-scaled-1.jpg\" alt srcset=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1277457784-scaled-1.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/cdn01.dailycaller.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/GettyImages-1277457784-185x120.jpg 185w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1277457784-620x402-1.jpg 620w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1277457784-768x498-1.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1277457784-1536x996-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1277457784-2048x1328-1.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-7019467\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Then-President Donald Trump and now-President Joe Biden debate in Cleveland. Polls showed Biden\u2019s lead widen following it. (Win McNamee\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Voters\u2019 growing unwillingness to participate makes polls\u2019 inaccuracy far harder to diagnose than in 2016, when the AAPOR\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/maintenance.kellenams.com\/\">report<\/a> found that many polls \u2014 and especially those in critical swing states \u2014 failed to weigh results by education, and therefore vastly underestimated Trump\u2019s popularity among voters without a college degree.<\/p>\n<p>Voters in 2016 also showed dissatisfaction with both Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and over 6% of the electorate cast their ballot for a third-party candidate. In 2020, however, over 98% of voters chose either Trump or Biden.<\/p>\n<p>The possible lack of participation among Trump\u2019s supporters also led to overestimating Democratic support nationwide.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere was a systematic error that was found in terms of the overstatement for Democratic support across the board,\u201d Josh Clinton said. \u201cIt didn\u2019t matter what type of poll you were doing, whether you\u2019re interviewing by phone or Internet or whatever. And it didn\u2019t matter what type of race, whether President Trump was on the ballot or was not on the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Overestimation of Democrats was especially apparent in down-ballot races. Democrats were widely expected to gain seats in the House and potentially flip several state legislatures ahead of the decennial redistricting, but Republicans ultimately gained 12 in the House and <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2020\/11\/12\/republicans-won-trump-failed-outperform\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">held every state legislature<\/a>.&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2020\/11\/12\/republicans-won-trump-failed-outperform\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: Republicans Won Critical Elections Where Trump Failed)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Experts\u2019 failure to reach a conclusion as to why the polls were so far off also raised concerns over polling\u2019s accuracy in 2022 and 2024.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHow certain are we that we can fix this in the future? Well, it\u2019s unclear,\u201d Josh Clinton said. \u201cWe\u2019ll have to wait and see what happens \u2014 which isn\u2019t a particularly reassuring position. But I think that\u2019s the honest answer.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact <a href=\"mailto:licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org\">licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Presidential polls surveying November\u2019s election were the least accurate in 40 years and state polls were the worst in the past 20, a report released Monday shows.While the report from &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"close","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-597477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=597477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=597477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=597477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=597477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}