{"id":2703976,"date":"2026-11-12T00:41:59","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T05:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/as-geopolitical-realities-shift-trumps-power-to-shape-events-recedes\/"},"modified":"2026-11-12T00:53:47","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T05:53:47","slug":"as-geopolitical-realities-shift-trumps-power-to-shape-events-recedes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/as-geopolitical-realities-shift-trumps-power-to-shape-events-recedes\/","title":{"rendered":"As Geopolitical Realities Shift, Trump\u2019s Power to Shape Events Recedes"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fas-geopolitical-realities-shift-trumps-power-to-shape-events-recedes%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2703976&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Geopolitics are at a turning point. President Trump hopes for diplomatic wins with Russia or Iran but is unlikely to reach lasting deals; Netanyahu may pressure him into further conflict, and congressional hawks complicate matters.The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/focusing-on-russia-instead-of-china-would-be-the-united-statess-biggest-foreign-policy-mistake-ever\/\" title=\"Focusing On Russia Instead Of China Would Be The United States\u2019s Biggest Foreign Policy Mistake Ever\">national security bureaucracy<\/a> and regional commanders can escalate operations without presidential approval. Scandals and tech-export disputes strengthen hawks\u2019 hand. Russia and Iran insist any ceasefire must reshape regional security architecture and won\u2019t accept a return to the old order. that complex diplomatic reality clashes with Trump\u2019s dealmaking style, leaving him ill-equipped for the task.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"c-blog-post__content s-wysiwyg s-wysiwyg--blog\">\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:30px;\" id=\"elevenlabs-audionative-widget\" data-height=\"90\" data-width=\"100%\" data-frameborder=\"no\" data-scrolling=\"no\" data-publicuserid=\"cb0d9922301244fcc1aeafd0610a8e90a36a320754121ee126557a7416405662\" data-playerurl=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/player\/index.html\" >Loading the <a href=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/text-to-speech\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elevenlabs Text to Speech<\/a> AudioNative Player&#8230;<\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/player\/audioNativeHelper.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>                            <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">Geopolitics are at a turning point. President Donald Trump desperately wants a negotiating win\u2014either with Russia, by brokering a ceasefire in Ukraine, or with Iran, by getting Tehran to open Hormuz and seriously discuss nuclear matters.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He will not get either. Neither Russia nor Iran believe seriously in the prospect of a deal; both countries will probably tell Trump he has no choice but to accede to their respective demands. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not only is Trump unlikely to get a diplomatic breakthrough, but he may actually find himself back at war. Netanyahu, wily fox that he is, may well pull the president into a further round of fighting in Iran. And despite their recent triumph in the midterms, Democrats are unlikely to stop this (especially given some senior Dem lawmakers\u2019 seeming sympathy for Israeli aims).<\/p>\n<p>                         <!-- \/22404337467,3946880\/theamericanconservative-Leaderboard-Top -->                         <\/p>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1742316429780-0' style='min-width: 300px; min-height: 50px; max-width: 100%; '>                         <\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If this happens, it will show Trump\u2019s essential vulnerability to shifting geopolitical vectors he is powerless to stop.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider first that, in the aftermath of Israel\u2019s October elections, the American president may actually be turning <a href=\"https:\/\/conflictsforum.substack.com\/p\/trump-turns-on-netanyahu\">against Israel\u2019s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu<\/a>. Some figures in Trump\u2019s inner circle, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BenCaspit\/status\/2119809841099071965\">according<\/a> to Israeli commentator Ben Caspit, have urged the Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form a government \u201curgently,\u201d <em><\/em>telling Eisenkot, <em>\u201c<\/em>You don&#8217;t have time; you&#8217;re in trouble. You have to replace Netanyahu as soon as possible.\u201d <em><\/em>Caspit attributes this to both the advisors\u2019 \u201cpersonal dislike\u201d of Netanyahu and the growing toxicity of his brand among the American electorate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bibi, for his part, clearly feels cornered. The leading Israeli daily <em>Ma\u2019ariv<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maariv.co.il\/news\/politics\/article-1386843\">quotes<\/a> a former senior Netayanhu adviser, Nir Hafetz, saying that Netanyahu is in a state of panic: \u201cDo you realize how much his life will change [should he lose power]?\u201d Hafetz warned the Netanyahu triumvirate\u2014comprising Netanyahu, his wife Sara, and his son Yair\u2014will \u201csimply explode.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Netanyahu\u2019s gambit is to call people around Trump every day. Writes Caspit: <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He is exerting heavy pressure to resume the attacks on Iran\u2026 using whatever leverage he has in the US: Republican supporters, Congressional Democrats and public opinion-makers who remain loyal to him.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Interestingly, many of Netanyahu\u2019s own security officials appear considerably less keen on new strikes. \u201cEven if Trump decides to launch a new wave of attacks on Iran together with us, it doesn&#8217;t mean much,\u201d one Israeli insider said, because \u201cthe Americans have completely different goals from ours. They are not trying to topple the regime.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, Israel\u2019s national security establishment sees Trump as happy to walk away with a \u201cwin\u201d short of the regime change Netanyahu has identified as his ultimate aim.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And while the midterm results suggest the war hurts Trump\u2019s political standing, for Bibi its renewal would be politically beneficial, since it would bolster the case for a unity government that would keep him in power. He wants to sabotage a putative opposition coalition, and if Eisenkot fails to put together a government, Netanyahu may yet succeed. Nothing is certain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The aforementioned midterms may have made Trump keener on a deal that he can tout on Truth Social as a success. Yet structural forces keep him hemmed in. The former U.S. counterterrorism chief Joe Kent has <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarioNawfal\/status\/2119639861573362008\">warned<\/a> of \u201cpolicy by CONOPS,\u201d a reference to how the Pentagon can structure its day-to-day activities (elucidated by its \u201cconcept of operations,\u201d or CONOPS) in such a way as to accomplish policy goals at odds with what higher civilian leadership may actually intend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under existing authorities, for example, CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper could conduct increasingly assertive air missions that expose U.S. assets to hostile fire, as we see happening <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/middle-east\/u-s-iran-exchange-strikes-on-islands-as-they-fight-for-control-of-strait-895801e5\">often<\/a> in the Strait of Hormuz. If Iranian forces fire back, the U.S. military could retaliate in turn, escalating the situation even without a decision from Washington.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a similar vein, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/national-security\/2026\/10\/ukraine-russia-trump-john-ratcliffe\/689090\/\">the <em>Atlantic<\/em><\/a>  recently revealed the stark disconnect between Trump\u2019s clear attempts at <em>rapprochement<\/em> with Moscow, on the one hand, and efforts by the U.S. intelligence community\u2014particularly the CIA, under the leadership of John Ratcliffe\u2014to simultaneously scale up its operations against Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The national security bureaucracy, in other words, may be contravening the will of the president through what is known in military parlance as \u201cdumb insolence.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why doesn\u2019t Trump act to shut down these operations?\u00a0 The hostility toward Russia, the desire to see Iran defeated, and China weakened, has not diminished amongst the uniparty war hawks. Already, in wake of the midterms, as Trump talks of a \u2018Big Deal\u2019 coming soon with Russia, Senate Democrats are pushing back hard. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To go up against these \u2018deep forces\u2019 is far from easy, even for a president. Vance may be supportive of Trump on Iran, but Rubio is out there publicly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-11-09\/trump-says-strikes-unlikely-even-as-rubio-slams-iran-s-demands\">saying<\/a> that negotiations with Iran are \u201cmaking little progress\u201d and characterizing Iran\u2019s demands to date as \u201cunacceptable and in some cases, outrageous.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hawks, who are present in both mainstream American parties, have the tools by which to face down any president whom they regard as getting out of line.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider the implications of the very public outing of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang\u2019s affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Huang, who has zealously pushed for lax export controls on the U.S.-designed chips his company wishes to sell to the Chinese market, is widely despised among China hawks. Up to this point, he has been fairly successful in winning President Trump over to his line of thinking; his downfall, therefore, presents a major opportunity for those who would like to take a harder line on tech exports to Beijing. (It should be noted, too, that there is an irony here, as the Chinese government itself is <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@arnaudbertrand\/note\/c-384333539\">actively blocking<\/a> Nvidia chips from entering the country, seeking instead to promote indigenous chipmakers.)  <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if the scandal deals lasting damage to Nvidia\u2014the second largest company in the world by market capitalization\u2014that could be bad news for the U.S. economy, and, consequently, for President Trump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, there is China\u2019s reading of this episode to consider. Are the hawks now ascendant in Washington, the CCP will wonder, and are we heading back to the trade war?<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A final strategic shift to consider derives from the obvious, but often overlooked fact, that Moscow and Iran will also have a say in the manner in which both wars end. Both states want to be able to shape the overall security architecture of their respective regions; both reject what they view as their consistent exclusion under the <em>status quo antebellum<\/em>. <\/p>\n<section class=\"c-subscribe-email\" >\n<div class=\"l-container\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__wrap\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__head\">\n<h4 class=\"c-subscribe-email__heading\">Subscribe Today<\/h4>\n<h5 class=\"c-subscribe-email__subheading\">Get daily emails in your inbox<\/h5>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__form-wrap\">      <!-- Begin Mailchimp Signup Form -->      <\/p>\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup\">\n<form id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" action=\"https:\/\/theamericanconservative.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=442e644c01f8e54e26e4ff3f8&#038;id=f7b67cac40\" method=\"post\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" novalidate target=\"_blank\">\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__fields\">              <label for=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"u-screenreader-text\">Email Address:<\/label>              <input id=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"c-subscribe-email__field\" name=\"EMAIL\" type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"Your Email\" \/>              <input id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"c-subscribe-email__submit o-button o-button--red-500 o-button--solid\" name=\"subscribe\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" \/>            <\/div>\n<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear\">\n<div id=\"mce-error-response\" class=\"response\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"mce-success-response\" class=\"response\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>              <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->            <\/p>\n<div class=\"u-screenreader-text\" aria-hidden=\"true\">              <input tabindex=\"-1\" name=\"b_442e644c01f8e54e26e4ff3f8_f7b67cac40\" type=\"text\" value=\"\" \/>            <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>      <!--End mc_embed_signup-->          <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia and Iran have drawn bright redlines. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently made clear that no truce would be acceptable unless it addressed the broader security architecture in Europe, <a href=\"https:\/\/english.nv.ua\/nation\/lavrov-rejects-immediate-ceasefire-before-talks-on-security-guarantees-50657984.html\">saying<\/a> that Russia \u201cwill not agree to a new truce or a ceasefire\u2014whatever you choose to call it\u2014without a clear understanding of what comes next.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And the Iranian government has been equally insistent on incorporation into a new Mideast security architecture, hosting representatives from the members of recently formed Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey) and <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ir_rezaee\/status\/2119913048982835424?a=8aoYFqWnRjyMMoNPtuw&#038;s=20\">demanding<\/a> that Washington \u201cstop denying the West Asian NEW ORDER.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is unlikely that Trump can acquiesce to these new realities, or accept that his own \u201cart of the deal\u201d no longer suffices.\u00a0 Now it is real diplomacy or none at all\u2014and Trump is temperamentally unfitted to this new era.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Geopolitics are at a turning point. President Trump is desperate for a diplomatic win-either by pressuring Russia into a Ukraine ceasefire or by compelling Iran to open Hormuz and engage seriously on its nuclear program. He\u2019s unlikely to succeed on either front. Russia and Iran doubt the seriousness of any deal and will probably demand concessions Trump will have to grant. Not only is a breakthrough unlikely, but there\u2019s a real risk he could be drawn into renewed fighting. Netanyahu, crafty as ever, may push Trump toward another Iran confrontation, and despite the midterm gains, Democrats are unlikely to block such moves, especially if some senior lawmakers show sympathy for Israeli goals.<\/p>\n<p>If this scenario unfolds, it would expose Trump\u2019s vulnerability to shifting global pressures beyond his control. After Israel\u2019s October election, Trump might even turn against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Some of Trump\u2019s advisers reportedly urged the Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form a government quickly, arguing Netanyahu\u2019s time is running out and that Americans dislike him more. Netanyahu himself feels boxed in and is said to be pressuring Trump\u2019s circle daily to resume attacks on Iran, using his network of supporters, Democratic and Republican allies, and public opinion to keep the pressure up.<\/p>\n<p>Yet many of Israel\u2019s security chiefs are wary of renewed strikes. Some insiders say even if Trump agrees to another round of Iranian attacks, the Americans have different aims than Israel-they are not trying to topple the regime. In short, Israel\u2019s security establishment believes Trump would settle for a \u201cwin\u201d short of regime change, which benefits Netanyahu by reinforcing a unity government that could keep him in power. Whether Eisenkot can form such a government remains uncertain, and Netanyahu\u2019s fate is still dependent on that outcome.<\/p>\n<p>The midterms may have made Trump more eager to showcase a deal he can trumpet, but deeper forces constrain him. Former counterterrorism official Joe Kent warned of \u201cpolicy by CONOPS,\u201d meaning the Pentagon could shape daily operations to achieve goals the civilian leadership does not intend. For example, CENTCOM could conduct more aggressive air missions that provoke Iranian retaliation, risking escalation without a White House decision. The Atlantic highlighted a rift between Trump\u2019s outreach to Moscow and the CIA\u2019s efforts to broaden operations against Russia, signaling that the national security bureaucracy may thwart the president through what some call \u201cdumb insolence.\u201d Why doesn\u2019t Trump curb these operations? A continuing hawkish stance toward Russia, Iran, and China remains strong in both major parties, making it hard for any president to go against it. Senators and party leaders push back on a so\u2011called \u201cBig Deal\u201d with Russia and other hard-line positions.<\/p>\n<p>The Nvidia affair-Jensen Huang\u2019s alleged romance with a Chinese spy and his push for looser export controls on chips-exposes the tensions. Huang\u2019s influence has nudged Trump toward a softer line on tech exports, but hawks despise him, and his downfall could empower those who want tougher controls on Beijing. Ironically, China is already blocking Nvidia chips at home to cultivate its own chip industry, which colors the wider strategic picture.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s reading of these events matters as well. If hawks gain the upper hand in Washington, a renewed trade confrontation could follow. Moscow and Tehran will also influence how wars end: both want a say in shaping the regional security order and reject the status quo. Lavrov has stated that any truce must be tied to a broader European security framework, and Iran is pushing to integrate members of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement into a new Middle East order, demanding Washington recognize this \u201cnew order.\u201d Trump is unlikely to accept these shifts, and his \u201cart of the deal\u201d approach seems ill\u2011fitted to this new diplomatic era. Real diplomacy, or nothing, is the emerging reality, and Trump appears temperamentally unsuited for it<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4463,"featured_media":2703977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/tac.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2294774644.jpg?auto=compress&#038;crop=faces%2Centropy&#038;fit=crop&#038;fm=jpg&#038;h=630&#038;ixlib=php-3.3.1&#038;q=80&#038;w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[32404,87754,69279,87753,3634],"class_list":["post-2703976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-geopolitics","tag-geostrategy","tag-international-relations-2","tag-power-dynamics-2","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/tac.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2294774644.jpg?auto=compress&#038;crop=faces%2Centropy&#038;fit=crop&#038;fm=jpg&#038;h=630&#038;ixlib=php-3.3.1&#038;q=80&#038;w=1200","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2703976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4463"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2703976"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2703976\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2703981,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2703976\/revisions\/2703981"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2703977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2703976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2703976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2703976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}