{"id":2703850,"date":"2026-11-11T00:20:01","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T05:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/precedents-for-the-vice-president-humphrey-or-reagan\/"},"modified":"2026-11-11T00:27:55","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T05:27:55","slug":"precedents-for-the-vice-president-humphrey-or-reagan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/precedents-for-the-vice-president-humphrey-or-reagan\/","title":{"rendered":"Precedents for the Vice President: Humphrey or Reagan?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fprecedents-for-the-vice-president-humphrey-or-reagan%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2703850&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The vice president is vulnerable because his president started an unpopular foreign war. History shows such wars cost parties at the midterms and sometimes the White House-Truman (Korea), Johnson\/humphrey (Vietnam), Bush (Iraq). Reagan avoided disaster by withdrawing from Lebanon and won reelection.The 2026 Iran conflict damaged Republicans; J.D. Vance has distanced himself while Trump\u2019s position wavers. If Republicans de-escalate or exit the war, they could avoid worse losses in 2028; if not, past punishments may repeat.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"c-blog-post__content s-wysiwyg s-wysiwyg--blog\">\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:30px;\" id=\"elevenlabs-audionative-widget\" data-height=\"90\" data-width=\"100%\" data-frameborder=\"no\" data-scrolling=\"no\" data-publicuserid=\"cb0d9922301244fcc1aeafd0610a8e90a36a320754121ee126557a7416405662\" data-playerurl=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/player\/index.html\" >Loading the <a href=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/text-to-speech\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elevenlabs Text to Speech<\/a> AudioNative Player&#8230;<\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/player\/audioNativeHelper.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>                            <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">The vice president is in a difficult spot. His boss, the president, has led the country into an unpopular foreign war. And while nobody thinks the VP ever really supported the decision, as the number two in the White House, he has taken hits. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, since the incumbent party has been dominant for so long, popular grievances on a variety of issues have accumulated\u2014and voters have lashed out. No wonder the presidential party suffered a drubbing in the midterms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since the president himself won\u2019t be running again, the veep is seen as the frontrunner for his party\u2019s nomination in two years. Yet the fear (and for others, the hope) is that POTUS and his unpopular war have poisoned the chalice for any would-be successor.<\/p>\n<p>                         <!-- \/22404337467,3946880\/theamericanconservative-Leaderboard-Top -->                         <\/p>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1742316429780-0' style='min-width: 300px; min-height: 50px; max-width: 100%; '>                         <\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This could be a sketch of Vice President J.D. Vance\u2019s situation\u2014many would say, his <em>predicament<\/em>. Yet actually, this outlines Vice President Hubert Humphrey\u2019s situation in the 1960s. And we can learn from what happened to him then.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like Vance, Humphrey was a senator from the Midwest, focused on domestic issues. After <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1964_Democratic_Party_vice_presidential_candidate_selection\">auditioning other hopefuls<\/a>, President Lyndon B. Johnson tapped Humphrey as his running mate in the 1964 presidential election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In that election, Johnson campaigned as the peace candidate. In his notoriously effective <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=riDypP1KfOU\">\u201cDaisy\u201d ad<\/a>, he hinted that his Republican opponent, Barry Goldwater, was a nuclear warmonger. And as for the question of war in Southeast Asia\u2014the country of South Vietnam then being under siege from communist forces\u2014LBJ <a href=\"https:\/\/www.digitalhistory.uh.edu\/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=2&#038;psid=3461\">suggested<\/a> he would show restraint. \u201cWe are not about to send American boys 9 or 10,000 miles away from home,\u201d he pledged during the campaign, \u201cto do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On that platform, the Johnson-Humphrey ticket won a landslide victory. Yet just a few months later, the second-term president started escalating.\u00a0 The Johnson administration surged U.S. troops into Vietnam, ultimately sending more than half a million GIs\u2014tens of thousands of whom would die in what was plainly a no-win war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So at their next opportunity, voters rendered their judgment on this toxic combination of broken promises and terrible outcomes. Johnson\u2019s Democratic Party was clobbered in the 1966 midterms, losing 47 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After that, the 1968 presidential election loomed. Insurgent \u201cpeacenik\u201d Democrats were furious at Johnson (and the hapless Humphrey), while stalwart Dems were merely fearful. Humphrey was nominated in August 1968, and then was defeated by Republican Richard Nixon in November.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So we can pause here for the moral of the story: <em>Fight an unpopular war and you will get punished at the ballot box, big time. <\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"o-visual-break\">  \t<svg width=\"56\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 56 15\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">  \t\t<path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.60845 0L9.40456 5.52786H15.2169L10.5146 8.94427L12.3107 14.4721L7.60845 11.0557L2.90617 14.4721L4.70228 8.94427L0 5.52786H5.81234L7.60845 0ZM27.6085 0L29.4046 5.52786H35.2169L30.5146 8.94427L32.3107 14.4721L27.6085 11.0557L22.9062 14.4721L24.7023 8.94427L20 5.52786H25.8123L27.6085 0ZM49.4046 5.52786L47.6085 0L45.8123 5.52786H40L44.7023 8.94427L42.9062 14.4721L47.6085 11.0557L52.3107 14.4721L50.5146 8.94427L55.2169 5.52786H49.4046Z\" fill=\"#8F1B11\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/>  \t<\/svg>  <\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet of course, history being the eclectic stew that it is, there are tangy morsels and what-ifs to consider. More on them in a moment. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the real world, Humphrey lost. So is the fate of that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dick-cheney-redefined-the-vice-presidency\/\" title=\"Dick Cheney redefined the vice presidency\">earlier vice president<\/a> a doom-y augury for the <em>current<\/em> vice president? <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, we can add the ominous omens of <em>other<\/em> presidents and vice presidents who found themselves overseeing unpopular foreign wars: In 1950, Democrats had to face the voters in the midterms while their leader, President Harry Truman, was embroiled in the Korean War; the party lost 33 seats in Congress. Come 1952, Truman\u2019s vice president, Alben Barkley, sought the presidential nomination, but did not get it. Which was just as well, as Democrats were avalanched in the November election, losing not only the White House, but both chambers of Congress. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More recently, in 2006, Republicans had their own rendezvous with midterm misery. George W. Bush, who had first campaigned for the presidency on a promise of foreign-policy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.org\/article\/2003\/02\/18\/a-humbler-foreign-policy\/\">humility, not arrogance<\/a>, nonetheless embarked on a war of choice in Iraq. Unsurprisingly, when this went south his party was pummeled in the \u201906 midterms, losing both its House and Senate majorities. Two years later, the vice president, Dick Cheney, didn\u2019t even think of seeking the GOP nomination. That November, from presidential candidate John McCain on down, Republicans were routed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So that\u2019s three midterm elections\u20141950, 1966, 2006\u2014in which the war party was put to flight, followed by another defeat in the presidential election two years later. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And now we return to the present. 2026 was the first half of this pattern; will 2028 be the second? With antecedents in mind, the White House reporters Nancy Youssef and Jonathan Lemire wrote of Iran in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/national-security\/2026\/11\/trump-advisers-iran-war\/689247\/?gift=SCYx-5scVta3-cr_IlgTyVs4S9cGJUfnntjqp0Iqk94\">the <em>Atlantic<\/em><\/a>  just two days before the election: \u201cA devastating night for Republicans on Tuesday won\u2019t necessarily reduce the chances of a resumption of hostilities, despite the war\u2019s political toxicity.\u201d The authors recalled that a day after the 2006 midterm massacre, Bush fired his defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld (n.b. Pete Hegseth)\u2014but then doubled down on Iraq. The troop surge was a tactical success, and yet it was a strategic nothing; Republicans were rebuked in the 2008 elections, and the new president, Democrat Barack Obama, would go on to withdraw from Iraq. Bush\u2019s victories in Mesopotamia were thus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.poetryfoundation.org\/poems\/46565\/ozymandias\">Ozymandian<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what will Trump do now in Iran? On <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/09\/10\/trump-iran-war-regrets-fox-news-dallas\">many<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/middle-east\/iran-news\/article-911511\">occasions<\/a>, he has indicated second thoughts about the war, and yet he always also insists his actions were right and necessary (on November 4 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/articles\/trump-defends-iran-strikes-midterm-192300974.html?guccounter=1&#038;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&#038;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABWFuYlBIF4T-W8cLiVyQFd4CUZLDd5e32C2HpmkiyRF5LCuZCQyf_rLuKKFuiV5i5Wu3Lif80tINaX1kAIK9tFoftgx-V6QYhYd33qQr57Nb4kvPBvJBh_E-fTUdI3wBV_4_QBnwKU2bT1CWsRg8grepXuKiu05ZNIRA41VPUW-\">he said<\/a>, \u201cI\u2019d do it again\u201d). And he continues to <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rapidresponse47\/status\/2118768176154726547?s=43\">play the Israel card<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, in the wake of the midterm debacle, he has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/immigration\/2026\/11\/06\/vance-immigration-hawks-applaud-stephen-millers-promotion-to-white-house-house-chief-of-staff\/\">made some changes<\/a>. And while the president has said he will keep Hegseth at the Pentagon, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/lrozen\/status\/2118787860711038978?s=43\">catty observers<\/a> note the infirmity of his statements\u2014and so <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/11\/06\/hegseth-trump-future-fight-01154619\">Hegseth is scrambling his PR jets<\/a>, even as <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RepThomasMassie\/status\/2120181881006096488\">Congress ponders his impeachment<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another architect of the war, Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who doubles as White House national security adviser), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/11\/05\/us\/politics\/marco-rubio-2028.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share\">avers<\/a> that he\u2019s still fully supportive of the war, even as, of course, he is happier talking about Latin America. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, Vance is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/11\/06\/vance-leads-push-new-iran-deal\">struggling to broker some sort of deal to edge out of the conflict<\/a>. Trump seems supportive of these efforts, and yet by now we have learned that the Trump \u201cweave\u201d means he contains multitudes, depending on the circumstances, audience, and mood.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/11\/03\/world\/middleeast\/iran-chemical-weapons-israel-trump.html\">Israeli government<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/marcthiessen\/status\/2118735277820670097\">American<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/marklevinshow\/status\/2118462580406534232\">neocons<\/a> are <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/arifleischer\/status\/2118099169566986625?s=43\">keeping up<\/a> the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/kimstrassel\/status\/2118075813916733671?s=43\">pro-war pressure<\/a>. Given Trump\u2019s stubbornness about not ever admitting a mistake, it\u2019s quite possible that the commander-in-chief will yield to the continued entreaties of the hawks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eyeing all this, Democrats, soon to control Congress, must decide what to do. Almost all of them campaigned on an anti-war platform, and some will seek to block the war, impeach Hegseth, etc. Yet slyer Dems will be happy if Trump quagmires himself deeper, so they can again win big in 2028, just as the opposition did in \u201952, \u201968, and \u201908. <\/p>\n<div class=\"o-visual-break\">  \t<svg width=\"56\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 56 15\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">  \t\t<path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M7.60845 0L9.40456 5.52786H15.2169L10.5146 8.94427L12.3107 14.4721L7.60845 11.0557L2.90617 14.4721L4.70228 8.94427L0 5.52786H5.81234L7.60845 0ZM27.6085 0L29.4046 5.52786H35.2169L30.5146 8.94427L32.3107 14.4721L27.6085 11.0557L22.9062 14.4721L24.7023 8.94427L20 5.52786H25.8123L27.6085 0ZM49.4046 5.52786L47.6085 0L45.8123 5.52786H40L44.7023 8.94427L42.9062 14.4721L47.6085 11.0557L52.3107 14.4721L50.5146 8.94427L55.2169 5.52786H49.4046Z\" fill=\"#8F1B11\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/>  \t<\/svg>  <\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet we don\u2019t have to be doomed to repeat the past. As Ebenezer Scrooge says in the redemptive ending of Dickens\u2019 <em>A Christmas Carol<\/em>, \u201cMen\u2019s courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead. But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So if Republicans wish to depart from frightful courses\u2014perhaps joined by normie Democrats, fearful of Hasan Piker\u2013ization if the masses are further radicalized by endless wars\u2014we might ponder another, more hopeful, precedent. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In August 1982, President Ronald Reagan committed U.S. troops to a UN\u2013sponsored peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. We acted with good globalist intentions; our Marines joined soldiers from Britain, France, and Italy. To be sure, there was little evidence that these \u201cpeacekeepers\u201d were actually keeping the peace, but <em>haute<\/em> diplomacy is all about fig-leafy fakery. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the American people went to the polls in the November 1982 midterms, only a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1982\/09\/26\/world\/2-americans-killed-in-lebanon.html\">few Marines had been killed in the mission<\/a>. The big losses\u2014the truck bombing and other attacks that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.history.navy.mil\/browse-by-topic\/wars-conflicts-and-operations\/middle-east\/lebanon.html\">killed hundreds<\/a> \u2014came the following year, 1983.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So there are sharp distinctions to be made between Reagan and the aforementioned midterm warrior presidents: Reagan intended peace all along. And critically, when the mission turned into a war, Reagan did <em>not<\/em> double down. He did not \u201csurge.\u201d Instead, he wisely chose to cut his losses. The last Marines evacuated from Lebanon on February 8, 1984. The alleged <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2004\/06\/recovered-memories-denis-boyles\/\">\u201ccrazy cowboy\u201d<\/a> proved himself to be a cool realist. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Free and clear from a land war in Asia, Reagan campaigned on peace and prosperity\u2014and won a smashing re-election victory in 1984.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will Trump learn from Reagan? The 47th president has always been a fan of the 40th; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/RonaldReagan\/posts\/we-cant-think-of-a-better-birthday-present-ronald-reagans-portrait-now-hangs-in-\/1044850651017241\/\">the Gipper\u2019s portrait is prominent in the Oval Office<\/a>. We\u2019ll have to see if Trump follows the course of the Gipper\u2014or of W and the others.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the meantime, looking ahead to 2028, Vance\u2019s path, like Humphrey\u2019s before him, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/11\/06\/opinion\/jd-vance-midterms.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share\">is daunting<\/a>. Yet here we can introduce variables reminding us that history may often rhyme, but it seldom repeats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most obviously, despite it all, Humphrey nearly won in 1968. Indeed, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/archive\/lifestyle\/1987\/09\/16\/humphrey-could-have-won\/e787318c-f463-4883-87d9-0713168c4306\/\">observers have argued<\/a> that if the \u201968 election had been held just a few days later, Humphrey would have won, such was the Minnesotan\u2019s home-stretch momentum. Three factors lifted that vice president.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>First<\/em>, Humphrey had a strong base. He was, in fact, a notable leader in civil rights and domestic social welfarism, back when \u201cwelfare\u201d was still as seen as Bismarckian stability, not dependent pathology. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can pause here to compare Humphrey to Vance: The author of <em>Hillbilly Elegy<\/em> offers his own hardscrabble vision of middle class wellbeing, closer to what Bismarck had in mind than the Great Society avant-garde of the 60s. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Second<\/em>, Humphrey was never a true hawk on Vietnam. Yet the question, in 1968, was whether or not Humphrey could bring himself to differ with Johnson on the war. That is, would a hypothetical President Humphrey stay in the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Waist_Deep_in_the_Big_Muddy\">big muddy<\/a>, or get us out? Voters cared about the answer, especially as Nixon was touting <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Peace_with_Honor\">\u201cpeace with honor.\u201d<\/a> Humphrey dawdled on this question, torn by loyalty to Johnson\u2014and also fear of his wrath. Yet Humphrey was on a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_1968_United_States_presidential_election\">downbound poll train<\/a> and knew it. So he told LBJ privately <a href=\"https:\/\/prde.upress.virginia.edu\/conversations\/4005498\">on September 30, 1968<\/a>, that he would support a \u201cpause\u201d in the bombing of North Vietnam; Humphrey was happy, two days later, when the news hit the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1968\/10\/01\/archives\/humphrey-vows-halt-in-bombing-if-hanoi-reacts-a-risk-for-peace.html\">front pages<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On this score, Vance is way ahead of Humphrey; he has already differed on this war. The day after the midterms, Vance issued a remarkable <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JDVance\/status\/2118004988433641835\">declaration of independence<\/a>. Interestingly, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/liveblog_entry\/trump-says-vance-post-blaming-midterm-loss-on-iran-war-floating-change-to-israel-ties-is-largely-true\/\">himself said<\/a> of Vance\u2019s statement, \u201cI think it was fine. I thought it was good.\u201d Admittedly, Trump thinks a lot of things, and yet amidst the infinite social media commentary, Donald Trump, Jr.\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/donaldjtrumpjr\/status\/2118018423221608480?s=42\">strong support of Vance<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/DonaldJTrumpJr\/status\/2119848691100238105\">expressed repeatedly<\/a>, stands out. In fact, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/barakravid\/status\/2119881611923661091?s=43&#038;t=x0C-OBtoQnTAziZ8vUK4VQ\">Trump Sr. and Vance<\/a> seem now to be <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JDVance\/status\/2119965503552991378\">on the same page<\/a> in the search for a settlement, in contravention of Israel\u2019s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who, as reported by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/liveblog_entry\/netanyahu-said-calling-trump-every-day-to-push-him-to-resume-iran-war\/\">the <em>Times of Israel<\/em><\/a>, wants more war. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Third<\/em>, back in 1968, the electorate was heaving and fluxing, confounding anyone\u2019s certitudes. The voters disdained the self-damaged Democrats, and yet, with the Depression still within memory, they distrusted Republicans. In fact, there was a third choice on the ballot in all 50 states that year: George Wallace, the former governor of Alabama. Wallace had been a Democrat, albeit of the rebel-yelling kind; he developed a substantial following among anti-liberal \u201cbacklash\u201d voters. Had Wallace not been in the race, the bulk of backlashers would have voted for Nixon, and so Wallace\u2019s 13 percent came out of the elephant\u2019s hide. Wallace hated Humphrey, and yet his indy candidacy almost elected him. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In our volatile era, we can speculate on possible geysers and fissures. Whoever their nominee proves to be in \u201928, will Republicans split over Iran? Will the bruited <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2026\/07\/29\/nevertrumpers-are-banking-on-iran-war-to-drive-maga-into-extinction\/\">Never Trumper scheme<\/a> to blow up the GOP prove successful? And will Democrats split: moderates vs. socialists? <\/p>\n<section class=\"c-subscribe-email\" >\n<div class=\"l-container\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__wrap\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__head\">\n<h4 class=\"c-subscribe-email__heading\">Subscribe Today<\/h4>\n<h5 class=\"c-subscribe-email__subheading\">Get daily emails in your inbox<\/h5>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__form-wrap\">      <!-- Begin Mailchimp Signup Form -->      <\/p>\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup\">\n<form id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" action=\"https:\/\/theamericanconservative.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=442e644c01f8e54e26e4ff3f8&#038;id=f7b67cac40\" method=\"post\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" novalidate target=\"_blank\">\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__fields\">              <label for=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"u-screenreader-text\">Email Address:<\/label>              <input id=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"c-subscribe-email__field\" name=\"EMAIL\" type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"Your Email\" \/>              <input id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"c-subscribe-email__submit o-button o-button--red-500 o-button--solid\" name=\"subscribe\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" \/>            <\/div>\n<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear\">\n<div id=\"mce-error-response\" class=\"response\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"mce-success-response\" class=\"response\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>              <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->            <\/p>\n<div class=\"u-screenreader-text\" aria-hidden=\"true\">              <input tabindex=\"-1\" name=\"b_442e644c01f8e54e26e4ff3f8_f7b67cac40\" type=\"text\" value=\"\" \/>            <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>      <!--End mc_embed_signup-->          <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Returning from the hypothetical to the historical, we can recall that the final result in 1968 was close: Humphrey lost the popular vote by just seven-tenths of a point. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By these reckonings, Republicans have grounds for optimism in 2028\u2014<em>if.<\/em> If, that is, they can get the Iran War behind them. As this author has argued here at TAC, in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/the-iran-war-as-history-the-box-scores-of-foreign-wars\/\">July<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/these-conservatives-fought-an-ill-fated-war-but-recovered-and-won-the-next-election\/\">October<\/a>, from an American point of view, the war itself has been small. Yes, the political impact has been huge\u2014Republicans won their smallest share of the vote since the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AaronBlake\/status\/2120135931885760514\">Watergate midterm of 1974<\/a>. And yes, too, as <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SeanDavisNews\/status\/2118729835950612500\">Sean Davis argues<\/a>, there\u2019s the flaying sense of <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/realdonaldtrump\/status\/1183130243885875200?s=43\">Trump traducing his own words<\/a>. And yet the warfighting has, in fact, been mostly blockading. So it\u2019s quite a testament to the overall ignominy of this war that even though America has suffered about 1\/2800 the fatalities of the Vietnam War (21 KIA in Iran, 58,220 in Vietnam), the Iran War has <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/stephensemler\/status\/2119842823994577177\">less support<\/a> among the American people.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/video\/2026\/11\/06\/ingraham_to_trump_its_just_time_to_cut_your_losses_in_iran.html\">Laura Ingraham<\/a>, a lonely prudentialist amidst the imprudent war gang at Fox News, believes Republicans still hav time to save themselves from another 2008. Indeed, Republicans can learn from Scrooge: <em>If the courses be departed from, the ends will change.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The vice president is in a tight spot because the president\u2019s unpopular foreign war has tainted the administration. Although few believe the VP truly backed the decision, he\u2019s taken heat as the second in command, and broad grievance about the ruling party helped produce the midterm drubbing. With the president not seeking another term, the veep is seen as the likely party nominee in two years, but the war may have poisoned the well for any successor.<\/p>\n<p>This could describe Vice President J.D. Vance\u2019s plight, but it echoes Hubert Humphrey\u2019s 1960s saga more closely. Humphrey, a Midwest senator focused on domestic issues, was chosen by Johnson in 1964. Johnson ran as the peace candidate and promised restraint in Vietnam, and the ticket won decisively. Yet Johnson soon escalated the war, sending hundreds of thousands of troops and suffering tens of thousands of American deaths. In 1966 Democrats were crushed at the polls, and Humphrey lost to Nixon in 1968. The moral is clear: pursuing an unpopular war invites brutal electoral punishment.<\/p>\n<p>But history is not one-note. Truman faced midterms in 1950 during Korea; his vice president, Alben Barkley, did not win the nomination in 1952, and Democrats were swept from power. In 2006 Republicans suffered after Bush\u2019s Iraq venture, and two years later the party was routed again. The pattern-midterm defeats followed by a presidential loss two years later-appears in multiple eras. Some observers worry a similar arc could unfold around Iran today, even if 2026 marks only the start.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has shown ambivalence about the war but often defends the action, and he remains tied to Israel as a political hinge. Since the midterms, there have been shifts: Hegseth at the Pentagon, Rubio still backing the fight, and Vance pushing for an exit, even as Trump\u2019s \u201cweave\u201d suggests he can shift with audience and mood. Democrats, soon to control Congress, must decide whether to block the war, pursue impeachment, or hope that Trump deepens the quagmire to help them in 2028. Reagan\u2019s Lebanon intervention is offered as a foil: he sought peace, didn\u2019t surge, withdrew, and rode to a landslide reelection in 1984. Will Trump imitate Reagan or follow a harder path?<\/p>\n<p>As for 2028, Vance\u2019s path-like Humphrey\u2019s before him-is daunting, but history sometimes rhymes more than it repeats. Humphrey did come close in 1968, aided by a base in civil rights and welfare, a willingness to pause on bombing, and a volatile electorate that year, which also included George Wallace on the ballot. The era\u2019s dynamics invite speculation about whether Republicans will split over Iran or whether Democrats will fracture between moderates and more radical wings. The lesson some draw is that, if the parties choose differently, the ends can change. And in the near term, the Iran issue remains a potent political fault line, with the war\u2019s costs measured more in public opinion than in battlefield casualties<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":135,"featured_media":2703851,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/tac.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-515574530.jpg?auto=compress&#038;crop=faces%2Centropy&#038;fit=crop&#038;fm=jpg&#038;h=630&#038;ixlib=php-3.3.1&#038;q=80&#038;w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[548],"tags":[87736,87735,39805,47868],"class_list":["post-2703850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conservative-news-daily","tag-hubert-h-humphrey","tag-presidential-precedents","tag-ronald-reagan","tag-vice-presidency"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/tac.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/GettyImages-515574530.jpg?auto=compress&#038;crop=faces%2Centropy&#038;fit=crop&#038;fm=jpg&#038;h=630&#038;ixlib=php-3.3.1&#038;q=80&#038;w=1200","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2703850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/135"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2703850"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2703850\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2703854,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2703850\/revisions\/2703854"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2703851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2703850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2703850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2703850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}