{"id":2701769,"date":"2026-11-07T20:53:02","date_gmt":"2026-11-08T01:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/betting-markets-midterm-predictions-were-dead-on-now-theyre-saying-desantiss-odds-of-becoming-potus-are-skyrocketing\/"},"modified":"2026-11-07T20:58:58","modified_gmt":"2026-11-08T01:58:58","slug":"betting-markets-midterm-predictions-were-dead-on-now-theyre-saying-desantiss-odds-of-becoming-potus-are-skyrocketing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/betting-markets-midterm-predictions-were-dead-on-now-theyre-saying-desantiss-odds-of-becoming-potus-are-skyrocketing\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting Markets&#8217; Midterm Predictions Were Dead On: Now They&#8217;re Saying DeSantis&#8217;s Odds of Becoming POTUS Are Skyrocketing"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">34<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fbetting-markets-midterm-predictions-were-dead-on-now-theyre-saying-desantiss-odds-of-becoming-potus-are-skyrocketing%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2701769&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>After Republicans\u2019 meaningful midterm losses,prediction markets show Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis\u2019s chances of securing the 2028 Republican nomination have surged. those same markets, which were accurate about the midterms, now suggest his odds of becoming president are climbing quickly. I don\u2019t have live market data,but I can explain what that kind of move usually means,why prediction markets might react that way after bad midterms for Republicans,and how to interpret the signal.<\/p>\n<p>Key points<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; What the markets are saying: Market prices are usually quoted as implied probabilities (a $0.30 price \u2248 30% chance). If markets that track the Republican nomination and the general election both move up for DeSantis, they\u2019re reflecting bettors\u2019 and traders\u2019 collective view that his relative chances have improved.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Why they move after midterms:<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; New details. midterm outcomes change narratives about which politicians and messages worked (or didn\u2019t) and can shift donors\u2019 and strategists\u2019 expectations.<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; Momentum and media attention. A post-midterm narrative can create momentum for a particular candidate, attracting money and bets that push prices up.<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; Reassessment of opponents. Poor performance by other Republicans (or weakening of Trump\u2019s standing, if that\u2019s happening) can increase a second-tier candidate\u2019s chances.<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; Liquidity and amplification. Many prediction markets have limited liquidity, so relatively small flows of capital can produce large price swings that may overstate true probability changes.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; How to interpret the signal<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; Markets aggregate diverse information quickly and often outperform single polls, but they aren\u2019t infallible. they incorporate bettors\u2019 incentives, which can introduce biases (news-driven momentum, strategic trades, limits on who can bet).<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; A rising nomination probability does not automatically equal a high probability of becoming president. Nomination odds feed into <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-four-democrats-at-risk-under-desantiss-new-congressional-maps\/\" title=\"The four Democrats at risk under ...&#039;s new congressional maps\">general-election odds<\/a>, but the latter also depend on who the Democratic nominee is, national conditions (economy, events), and swing-state dynamics.<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; Early markets are especially noisy. Long before the primaries, much is unknown (who runs, fundraiser strength, scandals, legal cases). Movements should be viewed as updated signals, not final forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; What to watch next<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; fundraising, major endorsements, polling in early primary states, and performance in debates\/early contests.<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; any changes to principal opponents (e.g., Trump\u2019s standing, entry\/exit of other major candidates).<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; Market liquidity and which platforms are moving &#8211; smaller platforms can swing more wildly.<\/p>\n<p>  &#8211; How markets for nomination vs. general election diverge &#8211; that shows whether traders think a candidate is merely likely to win the nomination or also electable nationwide.<\/p>\n<p>If you want, give me the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/michael-busler-an-easy-to-understand-explanation-for-high-inflation-and-how-to-fix-it\/\" title=\"Michael Busler: An Easy-to-understand Explanation for High Inflation and How to Fix It\">current market prices<\/a> (or links to the markets you\u2019re watching) and I\u2019ll convert them to implied probabilities and walk through what those numbers mean in practical terms. <br \/> <br \/>\n    Read more&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>In the wake of Republicans\u2019 suffering historic midterm losses, prediction markets indicate that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis\u2019s odds of becoming the 2028 Republican presidential nominee are soaring. Prediction markets correctly [\u2026] The post Betting Markets&#8217; Midterm Predictions Were Dead On: Now They&#8217;re Saying DeSantis&#8217;s Odds of Becoming POTUS Are Skyrocketing appeared first on The Western Journal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Paraphrase:<br \/>\nAfter the GOP\u2019s historic midterm losses, prediction markets indicate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is gaining momentum to win the 2028 Republican nomination, with his odds rising. Markets have correctly anticipated midterm results in the past, and they\u2019re now signaling that DeSantis\u2019s path to the presidency is widening, according to The Western Journal.<\/p>\n<p>55-character version:<br \/>\nDeSantis odds rise after GOP midterm losses<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[87619,4980,7408,10904,14618],"class_list":["post-2701769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-betting-markets-2","tag-desantis","tag-midterms","tag-odds","tag-potus"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2701769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2701769"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2701769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2701780,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2701769\/revisions\/2701780"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2701769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2701769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2701769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}