{"id":2698927,"date":"2026-11-05T09:33:59","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T14:33:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/yet-more-reporting-shows-the-ukraine-war-was-avoidable\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T09:34:47","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T14:34:47","slug":"yet-more-reporting-shows-the-ukraine-war-was-avoidable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/yet-more-reporting-shows-the-ukraine-war-was-avoidable\/","title":{"rendered":"Yet More Reporting Shows the Ukraine War Was Avoidable"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fyet-more-reporting-shows-the-ukraine-war-was-avoidable%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2698927&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>After the 2014 Maidan and Donbas referenda, the Minsk accords offered autonomy and a path to avoid full-scale war.Poroshenko later admitted Minsk bought Ukraine time; Merkel and Hollande agreed. After Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion, early talks in Belarus and Istanbul could have produced a deal. Former MP Vadym Novinsky and other reporting claim Kyiv agreed to neutrality and special statuses for Crimea and Donbas but then withdrew.A later back channel suggested Putin was open to negotiations-Russia would pull back, except de facto Crimea control, fund reconstruction and discuss security guarantees-offers Kyiv and reportedly the U.S. declined.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"c-blog-post__content s-wysiwyg s-wysiwyg--blog\">\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:30px;\" id=\"elevenlabs-audionative-widget\" data-height=\"90\" data-width=\"100%\" data-frameborder=\"no\" data-scrolling=\"no\" data-publicuserid=\"cb0d9922301244fcc1aeafd0610a8e90a36a320754121ee126557a7416405662\" data-playerurl=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/player\/index.html\" >Loading the <a href=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/text-to-speech\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elevenlabs Text to Speech<\/a> AudioNative Player&#8230;<\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/player\/audioNativeHelper.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>                            <\/p>\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">Following the Maidan coup of 2014, the two regions of Donbas held referenda on some form of autonomy and a civil war ensued. The best available chance for peace was offered by the Minsk agreements, brokered by France and Germany, agreed to by Ukraine and Russia, and accepted by the U.S. and UN in 2014 and 2015.\u00a0This gave Ukraine the opportunity to keep its territory and Donbas the means to protect its ethnic Russian culture by peacefully remaining part of Ukraine with a new level of autonomy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the opportunity was missed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Putin biographer Philip Short, Ukraine\u2019s then-President Pyotr Poroshenko would later confess that the arrangement envisaged by Minsk was never meant to be implemented. Poroshenko\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.topcor.ru\/26301-my-dobilis-togo-chego-hoteli-poroshenko-nazval-cel-podpisanija-minskih-soglashenij-v-2015-godu.html\">told<\/a> the Ukrainian media and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.indianpunchline.com\/what-to-expect-in-russias-winter-offensive-in-ukraine\/\">other news outlets<\/a> that\u00a0Kiev\u2019s goal for Minsk was \u201cto delay the war\u2014to secure eight years to restore economic growth and create powerful armed forces.\u201d He says that it worked: \u201cWe had achieved everything we wanted.\u201d The \u201cgreat diplomatic achievement,\u201d Poroshenko <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/39356ee4-a505-4391-a7a9-998252cb67ee\">told<\/a> the <em>Financial Times<\/em>, was that, though Ukraine \u201cdidn\u2019t have an armed forces at all\u2026 we kept Russia\u2026 away from a full-sized war.<\/p>\n<p>                         <!-- \/22404337467,3946880\/theamericanconservative-Leaderboard-Top -->                         <\/p>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1742316429780-0' style='min-width: 300px; min-height: 50px; max-width: 100%; '>                         <\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Poroshenko\u2019s account has been corroborated by his Minsk partners. Germany\u2019s then-Chancellor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/international\/germany\/a-year-with-ex-chancellor-merkel-you-re-done-with-power-politics-a-f46149cb-6deb-45a8-887c-8aa37cc9b3c3\">Angela Merkel<\/a> and France\u2019s then-President <a href=\"https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/hollande-there-will-only-be-a-way-out-of-the-conflict-when-russia-fails-on-the-ground\/\">Fran\u00e7ois Hollande<\/a> have both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zeit.de\/2022\/51\/angela-merkel-russland-fluechtlingskrise-bundeskanzler\/komplettansicht\">said<\/a> they saw Minsk as giving Ukraine the time and space to strengthen its military before another conflict with Russia.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even after the 2022 invasion, there was still a chance for peace. Within days, before most of the death and destruction had occurred, contact was made and talks were held between the two sides, first in Belarus and then, most promisingly, in Istanbul.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The historical record suggests that, while Ukraine and Russia were considering an agreement, and were potentially close to an agreement, the U.S. and UK <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/its-time-to-apologize-to-ukrainians\/\">pushed Ukraine off the diplomatic path to peace<\/a>, and another possibility for peace was missed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent revelations have added evidence to the already overwhelming case.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first testimony comes from the Ukrainian former MP Vadym Novinsky. In an <a href=\"https:\/\/ctrana.one\/articles\/interview\/514091-vadimnovinskij-intervju-o-zelenskom-upts-i-perehovorakh-s-rossiej.html\">interview<\/a> with <em>Stana<\/em>, he provides previously unknown details of the earliest negotiations of the war. He says that on February 24, at the end of the first day of the Russian invasion, he advised David Arakhamia, the head of Zelensky\u2019s Servant of the People Party who led the Ukrainian negotiating team in Belarus and Istanbul, to immediately contact Moscow to begin negotiations. There hadn\u2019t been many deaths yet, \u201cand it was possible to try to turn the situation around.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Novinsky says that on February 25, he was contacted by the head of one of Ukraine\u2019s intelligence agencies, who requested that he begin to organize negotiations. The intelligence chief said that the request came from the president of Ukraine. Within minutes, Novinsky was talking to Zelensky. Novinsky says that he succeeded in organizing the first talks in Gomel, a city in Belarus near the Ukrainian border.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Novinsky says that the agenda included three main points. The most important was Russia\u2019s insistence that the clause on Ukraine\u2019s NATO aspirations be removed from its constitution and be replaced by one asserting \u201cnon-aligned status and neutrality.\u201d The second was that Ukraine would recognize Crimea\u2019s \u201cspecial status\u201d but not \u201cas part of the Russian Federation\u201d for 30 years. The third was that Ukraine would recognize \u201ca special status\u201d for Donbas. There could be negotiations about Donbas remaining in Ukraine. At this point, there was \u201cstill the option of keeping Donbas within Ukraine\u2026 within a framework of a confederal union.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Novinsky says that he \u201ccoordinated every point with President Zelenskyy. And he agreed to everything then.\u201d The process of developing the agreement lasted the month leading up to the Istanbul talks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The striking thing about Novinsky\u2019s testimony is that, if true, Russia was prepared in the first month of the war to trade a potentially intact Ukraine for a promise not to join NATO. But perhaps most astonishing it the revelation that it was not Russia that backed away from diplomacy\u2014it was Ukraine. When asked by the interviewer why the Istanbul process failed, Novinsky responded, \u201cI am absolutely certain that it was the fault of our leaders.\u201d He says Boris Johnson, UK prime minister at the time, may have been involved, or it could have been \u201cZelensky himself\u201d; but, in any case, it was the Kiev leadership that walked away from the diplomatic path to peace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A similar story is told by a new report of a previously unknown back channel that was opened several months later. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/dcb57f30-bbfe-418d-9e52-5df3074d1764?syn-25a6b1a6=1\">reporting<\/a> by the <em>Financial Times<\/em>, the American lawyer Richard Conn and the American investment banker Bob Foresman managed to open a diplomatic back channel by reaching Russian President Vladimir Putin through a former East German spy named Matthias Warnig and Zelensky through a Ukrainian film maker who had, reportedly, already helped set up the promising peace talks in Istanbul months before. According to Short\u2019s biography of Putin, Warnig arranged for Putin\u2019s wife\u2019s medical exam when she was badly injured in a car accident and was \u201cone of the very few foreigners admitted to Putin\u2019s inner orbit.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The team conveyed a message to Putin from the senior director for Russia on the U.S. National Security Council, Eric Green, to the effect that Washington was neither pursuing regime change nor trying to destroy Russia\u2014its aim was to broker a piece. The message, Green said, came from directly the White House.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In an interview with <em>The American Conservative<\/em>, Foresman said that Conn had communicated with Green extensively. There was a dangerously low level of communication between Washington and Moscow. Foresman says that Green made it clear to Conn that the White House \u201cacknowledged and encouraged\u201d the back channel and that they felt it was \u201cconstructive.\u201d The team felt there was no question that the U.S. government encouraged the back channel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin sent a message back, saying he had \u201cno choice but to conduct military operations\u201d but that he was \u201cvery open to negotiations.\u201d Foresman told TAC that Warnig had a uniquely close relationship to Putin, and that he assured them that Putin was serious about his willingness to negotiate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He wanted the talks to be elevated to the level of his own aide, Yuri Ushakov, and Biden\u2019s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> soon <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/senior-white-house-official-involved-in-undisclosed-talks-with-top-putin-aides-11667768988\">reported<\/a> that Sullivan did hold confidential conversations with Ushakov \u201cin an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and warn Moscow against using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.\u201d<\/p>\n<section class=\"c-subscribe-email\" >\n<div class=\"l-container\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__wrap\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__head\">\n<h4 class=\"c-subscribe-email__heading\">Subscribe Today<\/h4>\n<h5 class=\"c-subscribe-email__subheading\">Get daily emails in your inbox<\/h5>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__form-wrap\">      <!-- Begin Mailchimp Signup Form -->      <\/p>\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup\">\n<form id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" action=\"https:\/\/theamericanconservative.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=442e644c01f8e54e26e4ff3f8&#038;id=f7b67cac40\" method=\"post\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" novalidate target=\"_blank\">\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n<div class=\"c-subscribe-email__fields\">              <label for=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"u-screenreader-text\">Email Address:<\/label>              <input id=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"c-subscribe-email__field\" name=\"EMAIL\" type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"Your Email\" \/>              <input id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"c-subscribe-email__submit o-button o-button--red-500 o-button--solid\" name=\"subscribe\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" \/>            <\/div>\n<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear\">\n<div id=\"mce-error-response\" class=\"response\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"mce-success-response\" class=\"response\" style=\"display: none;\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>              <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->            <\/p>\n<div class=\"u-screenreader-text\" aria-hidden=\"true\">              <input tabindex=\"-1\" name=\"b_442e644c01f8e54e26e4ff3f8_f7b67cac40\" type=\"text\" value=\"\" \/>            <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>      <!--End mc_embed_signup-->          <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia\u2019s position had hardened by now, but was still far more favorable to Ukraine than any offer that remains on the table today. Russia would pull back to its prewar position. Ukraine would recognize <em>de facto<\/em> Russian control of Crimea, but, according to Ukrainian opposition MP Oleksiy Goncharenko, who has <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/GoncharenkoUa\/status\/2114253584506253383?s=20\">confirmed<\/a> the <em>Financial Times<\/em> story, would not have to <em>de jure<\/em> \u201crecognize it as Russian.\u201d Russia would return the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine and commit $300 billion in frozen assets to the rebuilding of Ukraine. The ceasefire would be ensured by protection from NATO states while Moscow began discussing a permanent security arrangement with Washington.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once again, Putin said that Ukraine could not be allowed to join NATO. He had softened his position, though, and would not stand in the way of Ukraine joining the European Union. He was willing to discuss the suggested frozen line as well as a security arrangement based on the one discussed at the Istanbul talks. \u201cIf we can agree on the border and on NATO, then we can discuss everything else,\u201d Putin reportedly told Warnig.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By this account, Zelensky and his people barely looked at the offer and refused to make any concessions on Ukraine\u2019s borders. The U.S. would also pass on the opportunity. According to Warnig, Sullivan had made it clear to Ushakov that the U.S. had not approved the back channel and that they saw no need for it. The rest is history.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Minsk offered peace; diplomacy failed; backchannels<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4480,"featured_media":2698928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/tac.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1245195516-scaled-e1669922894513.jpg?auto=compress&#038;crop=faces%2Centropy&#038;fit=crop&#038;fm=jpg&#038;h=630&#038;ixlib=php-3.3.1&#038;q=80&#038;w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[548],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2698927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conservative-news-daily"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/tac.imgix.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/GettyImages-1245195516-scaled-e1669922894513.jpg?auto=compress&#038;crop=faces%2Centropy&#038;fit=crop&#038;fm=jpg&#038;h=630&#038;ixlib=php-3.3.1&#038;q=80&#038;w=1200","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2698927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4480"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2698927"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2698927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2698930,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2698927\/revisions\/2698930"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2698928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2698927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2698927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2698927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}