{"id":2690769,"date":"2026-10-24T09:39:01","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T13:39:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollster-frank-luntz-skeptical-of-midterm-polling-showing-blue-wave\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T09:39:01","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T13:39:01","slug":"pollster-frank-luntz-skeptical-of-midterm-polling-showing-blue-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollster-frank-luntz-skeptical-of-midterm-polling-showing-blue-wave\/","title":{"rendered":"Pollster Frank Luntz \u2018Skeptical\u2019 of Midterm Polling Showing Blue Wave"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpollster-frank-luntz-skeptical-of-midterm-polling-showing-blue-wave%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2690769&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><br \/>\n<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\"><br \/>\n<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><html><body><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_1)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Seasoned pollster and commentator Frank Luntz warned CNN last week that flawed polling practices may be giving Democrats a false sense of security about the upcoming midterms and could crush their hopes of a blue wave.<\/p>\n<p>Luntz appeared on \u201cCNN News Central\u201d and discussed President Donald Trump\u2019s recent negative poll numbers before pivoting to potential polling flaws.<\/p>\n<p>He was asked what the \u201cpolls may be missing\u201d and if polling firms are \u201cunder-sampling the kind of voter that Trump usually brings out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Luntz noted that Trump voters tend to ignore phone calls because they feel the system is rigged against them.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls,\u201d he said, referring to when Hillary Clinton was projected to defeat Trump in a landslide.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrump voters walked away, refused to participate because they thought it was against them,\u201d Luntz continued, referring to the polling.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey thought that the polls were all biased. And that\u2019s what Republicans are being told right now. Don\u2019t believe the polls. They\u2019re not accurate. Well, they may be. We\u2019re about to find out. But I\u2019m still skeptical.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He outlined why voter turnout is the most important statistic in an election, then described how the polling industry has failed to ask the right questions to determine those numbers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m most interested in turnout, in the end,\u201d Luntz declared. \u201cAnd there are ways to measure it and I\u2019m not convinced that they\u2019re doing it. That they\u2019re polling how the electorate overall feels, and not polling the people who are actually going to participate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He also said a simple focus group can reveal which voters are engaged and which voters are more likely to sit on the sidelines.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s why you have to do focus groups,\u201d Luntz explained. \u201cThat\u2019s why you have to do one-to-one interviews. I can tell, by looking at you, if you\u2019re going to participate or not. And these are people who are counted in the polls, but know they\u2019re not going to vote\u2026 And turnout determines everything.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI ask the viewers, pay attention to how they\u2019ve asked the questions about turnout,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not whether you say you\u2019re going to vote or not, because people lie. How interested are you in the election, number one. Number two is, how often do you collect election news, political news? And number three, how often do you talk politics to your friends and neighbors? Those are three essential questions in determining turnout. And I hate to say this, but a lot of polls don\u2019t ask it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9PVRcKx9WqQ?si=XlVuVIFID1HD-s5I\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Luntz was asked how he could admit Trump supporters feel frustrated and betrayed, yet still have doubts about the midterm results.<\/p>\n<p>He replied, \u201cI have to be skeptical because I got it wrong once before. And I was so convinced that I was right.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/cnn-data-guru-hidden-gop-vote-easily-keep-senate-republican-hands\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">expressed<\/a> similar sentiments earlier this month, when he said the Republican Party has a substantial chance of maintaining its Senate majority if polling numbers are off by only a few points.<\/p>\n<p>He said the polling industry has consistently favored Democrats in past elections, adding that it wouldn\u2019t take much for Republicans to flip vital toss-up seats into their column.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLet\u2019s just say we have the 2026 Senate polls, but if the polls are underestimating the Republicans by 3.5 points, which you know is really possible, because we\u2019ve seen it through the history, right? You go back to 2020, that\u2019s basically what happened,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven in 2024, in a number of the key states we saw it happen, including places like Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">CNN: If early October polls keep the pattern of underestimating Republicans, they will keep the senate<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd34 Republicans: 52<br \/> \ud83d\udd35 Democrats: 48<\/p>\n<p>States:<br \/> Michigan: \ud83d\udd34 Flip<br \/> Maine: \ud83d\udd34 Hold<br \/> Texas: \ud83d\udd34 Hold<br \/> Ohio: \ud83d\udd34 Hold https:\/\/t.co\/dVUU90nSHj<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/OpenSourceZone\/status\/2109653209329353213?\">October 12, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Enten then rattled off several high-profile contests, some in ruby-red states, and said voters could easily defy pollsters, thereby flipping the script entirely.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, he cited the early October generic congressional ballot, noting that it has underestimated Republicans in 14 of 16 elections since 1994 by an average of four points.<\/p>\n<p>Polling for Senate contests in reliably Republican states like Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, and Iowa has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/talarico-buoyed-strong-gen-z-support-leads-paxton-outside-margin-error-new-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">consistently<\/a> put the Democrat ahead or within the margin of error.<\/p>\n<p>Even in states that Trump won in 2024, such as Georgia and North Carolina, the Senate contests have already been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/2026-senate-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deemed<\/a> \u201clean Democrat\u201d or \u201clikely Democrat.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As for the House of Representatives, despite the Republicans\u2019 successful mid-decade redistricting efforts and the Supreme Court eliminating race-based congressional districts by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolicy.com\/2026\/03\/09\/liberals_fretting_about_scotus_win_for_republicans_1169296.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">striking down<\/a> part of the Voting Rights Act, various <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/fox-news-power-rankings-house-falls-senate-stays-play\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polls<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2026-elections\/midterms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> outlets have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/reel\/935132956052506\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declared<\/a> that Democrats will easily retake the lower chamber.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f7f7f7; 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Luntz appeared on \u201cCNN News Central\u201d and discussed President Donald Trump\u2019s recent negative poll numbers before pivoting to potential<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2690770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Ben-Working-Feature-Image-2026-10-19T172844.343.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2690769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Ben-Working-Feature-Image-2026-10-19T172844.343.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2690769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2690769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2690769\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2690770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2690769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2690769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2690769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}