{"id":2684733,"date":"2026-10-15T12:47:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T16:47:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-expand-their-battleground-map-history-suggests-its-a-mirage\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T12:52:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T16:52:37","slug":"democrats-expand-their-battleground-map-history-suggests-its-a-mirage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-expand-their-battleground-map-history-suggests-its-a-mirage\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats expand their battleground map. History suggests it&#8217;s a mirage"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdemocrats-expand-their-battleground-map-history-suggests-its-a-mirage%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2684733&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article provides an in-depth analysis of the Democratic Party&#8217;s recent efforts in midterm campaigning, particularly through the &#8220;red to blue&#8221; program, which expanded to include six additional districts where Democrats historically have little chance of winning. Despite the Democratic Campaign Committee\u2019s optimism, historical trends from past elections suggest that late additions to their target list seldom result in victories, often onyl succeeding in open-leaning seats. The selected districts for 2024 are heavily targeted due to current unfavorable conditions for Republicans,such as unpopularity of the sitting president,high fuel prices,and ongoing conflicts. However, internal and external analyses point to the possibility that Democrats may be overstretching, especially with Republicans holding a cash advantage and polling possibly inflating support for Democrats. Experts warn that these late-stage efforts might be more aspirational than strategic, leaning on past patterns where most late-added candidates did not win. the article questions whether these last-minute expansions are a realistic path to victory or a strategic miscalculation.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-first wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Welcome to Thursday\u2019s <\/em>Washington Secrets<em>. We have another nerdy look into the final stages of midterm campaigning, and we ask whether Democrats have any chance in the districts they have just added to the list of targets.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-beehiiv-subscribe-form\"> \t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script async data-beehiiv-form=\"2fc49a60-029b-49ff-a134-0a84bf726b4d\" src=\"https:\/\/subscribe-forms.beehiiv.com\/v3\/loader.js\"><\/script> <\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democrats\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"249\">Democrats<\/a><\/strong>  announced last week that they were adding six more candidates to their <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4665412\/dccc-candidates-2026-red-to-blue-midterms\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4665412\/dccc-candidates-2026-red-to-blue-midterms\/\"><strong>\u201cred to blue\u201d program<\/strong><\/a>, expanding the midterm battleground to districts where <strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"4\">Donald Trump<\/a><\/strong>  won by an average of 16 points two years ago.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<style>.explore-more-section { background: var(--wex-bg); 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<\/script>     <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It means extra resources, with strategy guidance, fundraising, and training pouring in from the <strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/dccc\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/dccc\/\">Democratic Campaign Committee<\/a><\/strong>. But is it real?<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Democrats clearly on top in polling and forecasts for control of the <strong>Senate<\/strong>, do they really believe they can win, for example, New York\u2019s 21st district, where their dairy farmer candidate is running to win the seat <strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/3909036\/elise-stefanik-life-beyond-house-unafraid-fighting\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/3909036\/elise-stefanik-life-beyond-house-unafraid-fighting\">vacated by<\/a><\/strong>  Rep. <strong>Elise Stefanik<\/strong> (R-NY) and which went to Trump by 21 points in 2024?<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is it a colossal head fake to divert <strong>Republican <\/strong>resources to deep red districts and away from the real battlegrounds? Or does the DCCC really think it is on the brink of a colossal blue wave that could see them win the 46 seats of its \u201cred to blue\u201d program and deliver a majority of 85?<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Secrets<\/em> has the answer: History suggests the late additions to the target list are aspirational rather than real.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysis of past cycles, shared with <em>Secrets<\/em>, suggests Democrats rarely pick up any of the districts when they expand the map at the end of the race.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2024, only one of three late adds, for <strong>April McClain Delaney<\/strong> in Maryland\u2019s 6th District, won. And that was an open seat that had previously been held by a Democrat and only included in the \u201cred to blue\u201d program because it was a competitive race.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2022, five of the six candidates added late in the cycle lost. Again the only winner was in an open, Democratic-held seat.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2020, both late additions lost. And of 33 candidates promoted by the \u201cred to blue\u201d program in total, only one was successful: <strong>Carolyn Bordeaux<\/strong> in Georgia\u2019s 7th District.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps the most useful comparison is in 2018, when there was no presidential election, and Democrats flipped 41 seats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again, the DCCC\u2019s late additions to their map were largely unsuccessful. Of the nine candidates added in the final six weeks of campaigning, only Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/chris-pappas\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/chris-pappas\/\"><strong>Chris Pappas<\/strong><\/a>  (D-NH) won in New Hampshire\u2019s 1st District. And again, that was an open seat which had previously been held by a Democrat.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This time around, Democrats think an unpopular president, high fuel prices, and an unwanted war mean previously unreachable districts are within their grasp.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Announcing the six additions last week, DCCC Chair Rep. <strong>Suzan DelBene<\/strong> said: \u201cThe candidates added to our Red to Blue program today are winning over voters with their message of lowering costs \u2014 from gas and groceries to health care and housing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet there are whispers within Democratic ranks that they may be overstretching themselves, particularly when Republicans have a cash advantage in the closing stages.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere\u2019s no point in wading into races at this stage if the best possible outcome is cutting the margin of Republican victory,\u201d said a Democratic strategist. \u201cWe are better off focusing on places where we know we can win.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A string of recent polling analysis has suggested there may be reasons to think surveys are overestimating support for Democrats. On Wednesday, <em>Secrets <\/em>described how a common mode of finding respondents \u2014 sending text message links to online polls \u2014 may be drawing in a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4765289\/pollsters-results-exaggerate-democrats-support-ex-trumpers\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4765289\/pollsters-results-exaggerate-democrats-support-ex-trumpers\/\"><strong>disproportionate number of disgruntled ex-Trumpers<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For their part, Republican strategists know they are in for a rough ride but accuse Democrats of hubris.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThis is the same late-cycle gimmick House Democrats pull every two years,\u201d said a Republican strategist, who conducted the historical analysis. \u201cThey slap a \u201cRed to Blue\u201d label on a bunch of long-shot races, pretend they\u2019ve expanded the battlefield, and then quietly lose almost all of them on Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe history here is pretty brutal, and the difference this time is that Democrats are already stretched thin trying to protect their own incumbents. History always repeats itself,\u201d the strategist added.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-six-appeal\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Six appeal<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The six Democrats added to the \u201cred to blue\u201d slate in October were:<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Arkansas\u2019s 2nd District, Chris Jones<\/strong>: In one of the highest-profile additions, Jones is taking on House Financial Services Committee Chair Rep. <strong>French Hill<\/strong> (R-AR). Trump won the district by 16 points in 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Colorado\u2019s 3rd District, Dwayne Romero<\/strong>: Romero is an Army veteran taking on Rep. <strong>Jeff Hurd<\/strong> (D-CO). This seat voted for Trump by 10 points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Florida\u2019s 27th District, Eliott Rodriguez<\/strong>: Rodriguez is known to millions as a former local news anchor. He is up against Rep. <strong>Maria Elvira Salazar<\/strong> (R-FL), who has <strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4731446\/florida-republican-trump-immigration-policy-gone-too-far\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4731446\/florida-republican-trump-immigration-policy-gone-too-far\/\">distanced herself from Trump\u2019s deportation policies<\/a><\/strong>. The president won here by 15 points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Nevada\u2019s 2nd District, Teresa Benitez-Thompson<\/strong>: This district was won by Trump by 21 points but is open because of Rep. Mark Amodei\u2019s (R-NV) retirement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New York\u2019s 21st District, Blake Gendebien<\/strong>: A dairy farmer in upstate New York is running against Republican <strong>Anthony Constantino<\/strong> to win the seat held by Rep. <strong>Elise Stefanik<\/strong>, who is stepping down. Trump won it by 21 points two years ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tennessee\u2019s 9th District, Justin J. Pearson<\/strong>: A Memphis native who serves as a state representative is running in a redrawn district that Trump would have won by 21 points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>You are reading<\/em> Washington Secrets<em>, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/l\/email-protection#0576606677607176457264766d6c6b62716a6b607d64686c6b60772b666a68\"><span class=\"__cf_email__\" data-cfemail=\"1e6d7b7d6c7b6a6d5e697f6d767770796a71707b667f7377707b6c307d7173\">[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/a> with your comments, story tips, and suggestion<strong>s.<\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-the-first-rule-of-throwing-rocks-at-the-police\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The first rule of throwing rocks at the police<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thousands of students rioted in the Albanian capital of Tirana on Wednesday. Their actions capped a summer of anti-corruption protests that erupted in part because \u200bof the proposed <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/beltway-confidential\/4645417\/albania-protests-are-about-more-than-jared-kushner\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/beltway-confidential\/4645417\/albania-protests-are-about-more-than-jared-kushner\/\"><strong>development of a luxury coastal resort <\/strong><\/a>backed by Trump\u2019s son-in-law, <strong>Jared Kushner<\/strong>. The proposal has been caught up in legal disputes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One quote in a <em>Reuters<\/em> report caught <em>Secrets<\/em>\u2018 eye.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cThis is a revolution. We are tired \u200cof peaceful protests. We will not stop until Rama resigns,\u201d \u200csaid Lora, a student who declined to give her last name as she threw rocks at the police.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In <em>Secrets<\/em>\u2018 experience, it is always a sound move not to give one\u2019s name when engaging in violence. Particularly against the police.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-lunchtime-reading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lunchtime reading<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/10\/07\/magazine\/cormac-mccarthy-biography-myths.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IlE.lwCD.SktZTX_MFig8&#038;smid=url-share\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/10\/07\/magazine\/cormac-mccarthy-biography-myths.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IlE.lwCD.SktZTX_MFig8&#038;smid=url-share\"><strong>Dispelling the myth of Cormac McCarthy as cowboy-artist<\/strong><\/a>: We here at <em>Secrets<\/em> love an author biography, particularly when it involves someone as mythologized as Cormac McCarthy. Cowboy-artist indeed!<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/10\/15\/republicans-cling-to-last-midterm-hope-bad-polling-01118161\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/10\/15\/republicans-cling-to-last-midterm-hope-bad-polling-01118161\">The GOP\u2019s midterm lifeline: Maybe the polls are wrong<\/a><\/strong>: <em>Secrets <\/em>dove into this yesterday with warnings about one mode of sampling. But let\u2019s be clear: The polls are not THAT wrong.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Democrats add 6 new targets to their &#8220;red to blue&#8221; list<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4136,"featured_media":2684734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/8.png?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[9947,3685,6571,5894,4158],"class_list":["post-2684733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-battleground","tag-democrats","tag-elections","tag-politics","tag-strategy"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/8.png?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2684733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4136"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2684733"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2684733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2684737,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2684733\/revisions\/2684737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2684734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2684733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2684733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2684733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}