{"id":2669346,"date":"2026-09-24T17:31:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T21:31:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2026-recession-chances-plummet-90-from-july-high-as-good-economic-news-continues-despite-energy-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T17:37:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T21:37:26","slug":"2026-recession-chances-plummet-90-from-july-high-as-good-economic-news-continues-despite-energy-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2026-recession-chances-plummet-90-from-july-high-as-good-economic-news-continues-despite-energy-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Recession Chances Plummet 90% from July High as Good Economic News Continues, Despite Energy Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">32<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2F2026-recession-chances-plummet-90-from-july-high-as-good-economic-news-continues-despite-energy-prices%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2669346&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses the changing perceptions of a potential recession in the United States, highlighted by a popular prediction market that previously estimated a 42% chance of recession in July 2025, which has now dropped to around 4.6%. Current economic indicators, including strong GDP growth in the third quarter (projected at 5.1%), low poverty rates, and record household incomes, suggest the economy is performing better than some prediction markets indicate.Despite <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/david-harsanyi-the-putins-price-hike-canard\/\" title=\"David Harsanyi: The \u201cPutin\u2019s Price Hike\u201d Canard\">positive economic news<\/a>, inflation remains high, largely driven by energy costs such as gasoline and diesel prices, which have increased considerably from the previous year. Politicians are emphasizing these mixed signals-record income and employment versus rising living costs-and debating how best to present these developments to the public. while recession fears are fading, high inflation and elevated consumer costs continue to influence the political and economic landscape ahead of midterm elections.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><br \/>\n<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\"><br \/>\n<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><html><body><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>A popular betting market that tracks a 2026 recession just delivered the kind of number White House aides would love to put on a poster. However, it is not the number voters feel at the gas pump.<\/p>\n<p>On <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxrecssnber\/recession\/kxrecssnber-26\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kalshi\u2019s<\/a> recession contract, traders priced a downturn around 42 percent in July 2025. This weekend, the same contract traded near 4.6 percent. That is a drop of about 90 percent from that 2025 high, and about 37 percentage points.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">BREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet to 5% \u2014 an all-time low https:\/\/t.co\/D0zT1wNbdQ<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Kalshi (@Kalshi) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Kalshi\/status\/2101715645914046843?\">September 20, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>  The contract pays if the United States logs two straight quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, as tracked by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2026\/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Traders with money on the line have been dumping the \u201cyes\u201d side for weeks. The live price has been hovering in the mid-single digits. However, the contract will likely not pay out, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data. This is because the U.S. has not recorded two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in 2025 or 2026.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. is currently in the third quarter, which will end on Sept. 30. The official advance estimate for this quarter\u2019s GDP is scheduled to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in late October of this year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta\u2019s GDPNow <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/research-and-data\/data\/gdpnow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">model<\/a> projects the third quarter to be placed at a robust growth of 5.1 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Some believe they have solved the mystery because <a href=\"https:\/\/moneywise.com\/news\/top-stories\/kalshi-trump-jr-equity-stake-margin-trading-cftc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donald Trump Jr. sits on Kalshi\u2019s board<\/a>. That is not how a prediction market works. The price is the last trade, not a family meeting. If Junior could rig the books down from 42 percent to 5 percent, the same people would still be explaining why the \u201cyes\u201d side had any buyers left.<\/p>\n<p>The collapse in perceived recession odds lines up with economic news Byron York laid out in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/daily-memo\/4731439\/trump-good-economic-news-midterm-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Washington Examiner<\/a>. Newly released Census figures show the 2025 poverty rate fell to a record low. Real median household income hit $87,460, up $2,250 from the year before and the highest reading since the series began in 1967.<\/p>\n<p>York noted that the White House has not treated the poverty and income numbers like a champagne moment. Commentator Mickey Kaus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.semissourian.com\/opinion\/york-trump-good-economic-news-and-the-midterm-elections-5ac8d2f7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said<\/a> that if he were president and poverty hit a modern low, he would make a much bigger deal of it.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation is still running hot, and energy is the reason. AAA\u2019s recent <a href=\"https:\/\/gasprices.aaa.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">averages<\/a> put diesel around $6.51 per gallon, up from $3.71 a year earlier. Regular gasoline is about $4.48, up from $3.20. Those are midterm-killing prices.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">President Trump pushing back against criticism over rising gas prices and the cost of living, arguing Americans paid more at the pump and on everyday goods under former President Biden.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGas prices were much higher under Biden than under \u2018TRUMP.\u2019 So were almost all other prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The response comes as the national average for regular gas approaches $4.50 a gallon, while diesel has climbed above $6.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 FOX Business (@FoxBusiness) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FoxBusiness\/status\/2101990912037372013?\">September 21, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/articles\/fox-brit-hume-says-high-234441084.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brit Hume<\/a> put the split in one sentence: the economy is growing, jobs are plentiful, poverty hit a modern low, and prices are still \u201ckilling this administration and the president\u2019s party.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Record household income is good. It is also easier to print a record paycheck when the same dollars buy less diesel, less food, and less of everything that moves by truck.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation can lift nominal and even some \u201creal\u201d measures while voters still feel poorer at checkout. Pretending otherwise is how parties lose winnable arguments.<\/p>\n<p>Vice President J.D. Vance has been circling a message: cite the border, cite growth, ask for time on prices, and warn that handing Congress back to the people who built the last inflation spike is not a plan.<\/p>\n<p>York is right that \u201cgive us another chance\u201d is a weak closing line, but \u201chere is what improved, here is what is still broken, here is who made the energy mess worse\u201d is stronger.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction markets can say a recession is no longer the base case. Census can say poverty and income look historically strong. Neither number fills a gas tank.<\/p>\n<p>Costs have to be the primary midterm fight. The recession scare fading is good news, but with gas and groceries still elevated, the economy will play a key factor in deciding the outcome of upcoming elections.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f7f7f7; color: #171717; display: flex;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 600;line-height: 1.5;margin: 24px 0;padding: 18px 20px 18px 30px;text-align: left;\">\n<div style=\"align-self: stretch;border-left: 3px solid #171717;flex-shrink: 0;padding-left: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<p><a style=\"text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/\">Choose The Western Journal as your preferred source on Google and never miss reporting that defends truth, protects freedom, and advances Western civilization<\/a><\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey == typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts = { \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs = [ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i = 0; i < inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! 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