{"id":2647453,"date":"2026-08-20T15:24:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T19:24:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/texas-and-iowa-senate-races-shift-toward-democrats-cook-political-report\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T15:25:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T19:25:33","slug":"texas-and-iowa-senate-races-shift-toward-democrats-cook-political-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/texas-and-iowa-senate-races-shift-toward-democrats-cook-political-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas and Iowa Senate races shift toward Democrats: Cook Political Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftexas-and-iowa-senate-races-shift-toward-democrats-cook-political-report%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2647453&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The Cook Political Report has shifted the ratings for the Texas and Iowa Senate races from \u201clean Republican\u201d to a \u201ctoss-up,\u201d indicating increasing challenges for republicans amid national issues like Iran conflicts and affordability concerns. Polls show close contests in states Trump previously carried comfortably, with candidates such as Democrat James Talarico and Republican ken paxton in Texas, and Democratic Rep. Ashley Hinson and her opponents in Iowa, competing tightly. Despite Paxton\u2019s scandal-related vulnerabilities, his campaign remains confident in Texas\u2019 Republican leanings. The report highlights that,although it&#8217;s historically arduous for Democrats to flip certain seats,current polling suggests these races are more competitive than previously thought.Democrats aim to flip four Republican-held Senate seats and defend key states to regain control of the Senate, with some races, including gubernatorial contests in Texas and Iowa, also experiencing shifts in expected outcomes.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the high-profile <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/texas\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"253\">Texas<\/a> and <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iowa\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"468\">Iowa<\/a> Senate races from \u201clean <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republican\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"926\">Republican<\/a>\u201d to \u201ctoss-up,\u201d reflecting the increasingly difficult terrain for Republicans in the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-election\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"11675\">midterm elections<\/a> as the war in Iran and affordability issues weigh down the party.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Polls have indicated tight races in states President Donald Trump won three times, prompting a shift in ratings from the elections handicapper. Democratic state Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/james-talarico\/\">James Talarico<\/a> will face scandal-ridden Attorney General <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ken-paxton\/\">Ken Paxton<\/a> in Texas. Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ashley-hinson\/\">Ashley Hinson<\/a> (R-IA) faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4694781\/texas-iowa-senate-races-shift-democrat-cook-political-report\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Texas and Iowa Senate races shift toward Democrats: Cook Political Report<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4694527\/darline-graham-nordone-quell-backlash-taiwan\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Darline Graham Nordone attempts to quell backlash over Taiwan question: \u2018I don\u2019t speak politician\u2019<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4694506\/ocasio-cortez-endorses-massachusetts-senate-incumbent-ed-markey-green-new-deal\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Ocasio-Cortez endorses Massachusetts Senate incumbent Ed Markey<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEven though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it\u2019s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects,\u201d the Cook Political Report <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/analysis\/senate\/senate-overview\/texas-and-iowa-senate-races-move-toss-races-governor-also-move\">wrote<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Paxton\u2019s litany of scandals could prove consequential in his matchup with Talarico. Paxton knocked longtime Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) out of the race this summer, despite Cornyn\u2019s support from Senate Republican leadership.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhile Talarico remains right-side up in his favorables \u2014 at least so far \u2014 the deeply flawed Paxton is underwater by as much as double digits in some surveys and is notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling,\u201d Cook wrote. \u201cIn addition to a bevy of public polls, private Republican polling has had the race tied for some time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the most recent Emerson College poll has Paxton leading by 1 point, three <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/texaspolitics.utexas.edu\/blog\/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker\">other polls<\/a> from July had Talarico leading between 2 and 4 points. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/2026-senate-polls\/iowa\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/2026-senate-polls\/iowa\">Polling in Iowa<\/a> also has shifted back and forth between Turek and Hinson in recent months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cook moved the Texas <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/senate\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"8765\">Senate<\/a> race to a \u201ctoss-up\u201d in 2018 when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) faced Beto O\u2019Rourke, but Cruz narrowly prevailed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Paxton campaign said it isn\u2019t buying the shift and that history will repeat itself.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEvery year, Democrats think they have a chance to turn Texas blue,\u201d Paxton adviser Nick Maddux told the <em>Washington Examiner.<\/em> \u201cAnd every year, the person they frame as their next great hope flails and loses. Talarico\u2019s campaign will end the same way. The only poll that matters is November 3, when we prove Texas is red and will remain that way.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> contacted Talarico\u2019s, Turek\u2019s, and Hinson\u2019s campaigns for comment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and defend critical states in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia to regain control of the Senate. Top pickup opportunities include Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, but their chances of defending Michigan might have taken a dent after progressive Abdul el Sayed won the primary over the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4693255\/maine-to-alaska-johnson-crisscrosses-country-august-recess-tossup-gop-contests\/\">FROM MAINE TO ALASKA, JOHNSON CRISSCROSSES COUNTRY DURING AUGUST RECESS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cook also moved the Texas gubernatorial race from \u201csolid Republican\u201d to \u201clikely Republican\u201d and the Iowa gubernatorial race from \u201ctoss-up\u201d to \u201clean Democrat.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Texas, Iowa Senate races now toss-up: Cook Report<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3691,"featured_media":2647454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-collage-2iu3gernf-1787244780847-e1787251922395.jpg?1787230485&amp;w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[81399,5626,33017,37728,3694],"class_list":["post-2647453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-democratic-shift","tag-iowa","tag-political-analysis","tag-senate-races","tag-texas"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-collage-2iu3gernf-1787244780847-e1787251922395.jpg?1787230485&amp;w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2647453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3691"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2647453"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2647453\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2647456,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2647453\/revisions\/2647456"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2647454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2647453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2647453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2647453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}