{"id":2647216,"date":"2026-08-20T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/misleading-polls-fuel-socialist-hopes-that-arent-met-on-election-day\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T06:34:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T10:34:11","slug":"misleading-polls-fuel-socialist-hopes-that-arent-met-on-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/misleading-polls-fuel-socialist-hopes-that-arent-met-on-election-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Misleading polls fuel socialist hopes that aren&#8217;t met on Election Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fmisleading-polls-fuel-socialist-hopes-that-arent-met-on-election-day%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2647216&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Recent primary elections reveal a disconnect between polling predictions and actual voter outcomes concerning socialist candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Even though polls frequently enough showed these candidates either tied or leading their more centrist opponents, Election Day results frequently favored their more moderate rivals, challenging expectations and giving ammunition to centrist Democrats.Such as, DSA-backed Oliver Larkin lost his Florida primary by a large margin despite recent polling suggesting a close race. Similarly, other left-wing candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin underperformed relative to polls.<\/p>\n<p>Experts point out that primary polling is inherently uncertain due to factors like higher undecided voter counts, late movement, and challenges in identifying likely voters. Poll misses have intensified debates within the Democratic Party, wiht centrist groups like Third Way emphasizing that most prosperous campaigns tend to flip red or purple seats blue, not necessarily the far-left ones. Third Way plans to spend millions countering the DSA&#8217;s influence, which they associate with ideas opposed by mainstream Democrats, such as abolishing the senate or the Department of Defense.<\/p>\n<p>While some left-wing Democrats, like Florida\u2019s Angie Nixon, have secured her primary, overall results have highlighted the challenges faced by socialist candidates. Democratic strategists advise centrist efforts to build coalitions and focus on shared priorities, emphasizing the importance of messaging and collaboration across party factions. Experts warn that primary polls are often unreliable,and election outcomes suggest a need for more nuanced understanding of voter behavior as the party navigates internal ideological divisions.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A string of primary elections is exposing a growing gap between the expectations set by polling for <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democratic-socialists-of-america\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"5861\">socialist candidates<\/a> and what voters are actually delivering at the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-election\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"11675\">ballot box<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates entered several recent primaries with polls showing them tied with, narrowly trailing, or even leading their more centrist opponents. Election Day has often told a different story.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4693884\/misleading-polls-socialist-hopes-crashing-down-election-day\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Misleading polls fuel socialist hopes that come crashing down on Election Day<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4693700\/house-democratic-campaign-adds-five-new-candidates-to-red-to-blue-program\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>House Democratic campaign arm adds five new candidates to its \u2018Red to Blue\u2019 program<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4693663\/kevin-mccarthy-gop-prospects-midterm-elections\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Kevin McCarthy worries over GOP prospects in midterm elections<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week, DSA union organizer Oliver Larkin lost his primary against Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) in Florida\u2019s 25th Congressional District by almost 30 percentage points after earlier this month promoting a poll that had him neck and neck with the centrist third-term incumbent.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe are in a statistical tie with Rep. Jared Moskowitz \u2014 with just 11 days until the election!\u201d Larkin posted on X.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEW POLL: We are in a statistical tie with Rep. Jared Moskowitz \u2014 with just 11 days until the election!<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udfe6 Oliver Larkin: 38%<br \/>\ud83d\udfe5 Jared Moskowitz: 40%<br \/>\u2b1b Undecided: 22%<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re leading among likely voters that haven\u2019t cast their ballots. 28% of voters are still undecided. And two\u2026 <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5qlvCahmMh\">pic.twitter.com\/5qlvCahmMh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Oliver Larkin (@OliverALarkin) <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/OliverALarkin\/status\/2085800200338338035?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 7, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moskowitz, who has been criticized by the far Left over his support for Israel, won on Tuesday 63.5% to Larkin\u2019s 36.5% and will now defend his seat in a race the Cook Political Report considers to be a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/ratings\/house-race-ratings\">toss-up<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFlorida is known for hurricanes and so the DSA is a disaster area in Florida \u2014 and there\u2019s no federal reimbursement coming to help these people,\u201d Moskowitz told <em>Politico<\/em>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/debbie-wasserman-schultz\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"1713\">Debbie Wasserman Schultz<\/a> (D-FL) similarly fended off a socialist challenger in Florida\u2019s newly redrawn 20th Congressional District, with activist Elijah Manley coming in third with 14% to Wasserman Schultz\u2019s 46%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Florida results followed two other races in which pre-primary polling painted a rosier picture for left-wing candidates than Election Day ultimately produced. Michigan Democratic Senate nominee <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/abdul-el-sayed\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"23138\">Abdul el Sayed<\/a> won his primary against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), but by a narrower margin than polling had suggested. A week later, DSA-backed <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/francesca-hong\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"23344\">Francesca Hong<\/a> lost Wisconsin\u2019s Democratic gubernatorial nomination to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley despite pre-primary polls showing her ahead.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The polling misses have given centrist Democrats ammunition in their escalating fight with the party\u2019s socialist wing, even as pollsters caution that primary elections are notoriously difficult to forecast.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt is clear that a number of the polls of some of these key races ended up being pretty far away from where the public and the voters actually were, and in most cases, it seems like the polls overstated the level of support for some of these more DSA-affiliated candidates,\u201d said Kate deGruyter, the senior communications director at the centrist Democratic group Third Way. \u201cClearly there\u2019s a campaign tactic that both sides do where there\u2019s an effort to really try and create a sense of momentum, and I think the onus is on both reporters and savvy political actors to really be discerning communicators.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Third Way announced this month it would spend $15 million to counter the DSA between now and the 2028 election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marist Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff said that \u201cprimary polling has uncertainty way beyond margin of error and greater than for general elections.\u201d <\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cUndecided voters tend to be higher, late movement is not unusual, likely voters are harder to identify making turnout iffy, and the candidates are more unique in their attraction,\u201d Miringoff told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cIn addition, some of the surprising outcomes have to do with overestimating younger voters in some primaries. So, the bottom line is that primary polls may falsely set expectations and certainly make for risky predictions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results have not all gone against the Democratic Party\u2019s left flank. Florida Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon prevailed over retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a witness in President Donald Trump\u2019s first impeachment trial, in their special Democratic Senate primary election, 56% to 44%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But Nixon\u2019s victory also underscored the electability argument centrist groups such as Third Way are making against the party\u2019s left wing. After her victory, Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia\u2019s Center for Politics shifted the race from likely Republican to safe Republican.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFor us, the critical project of the Democratic Party is not turning blue seats bluer \u2014 it is turning red and purple seats blue,\u201d Third Way\u2019s deGruyter said. \u201cIt\u2019s folks from the moderate wing who have flipped 50 seats from red to blue. We have yet to see the far-left flip even one seat from red to blue. So there\u2019s a lot to kind of discern about where the public is, but broadly, I think that is going to hold true.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DeGruyter reiterated that Third Way\u2019s anti-DSA work was \u201cmore taking on the organization itself,\u201d rather than individual candidates. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe kind of ideas that are a part of that DSA platform include things like abolishing the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/senate\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"8765\">U.S. Senate<\/a>, abolishing the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/department-of-defense\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"335\">Department of Defense<\/a>, closing <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/prisons\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"2920\">prisons<\/a>, defunding the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/police\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"211\">police departments<\/a>, ending <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/nato\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"603\">NATO<\/a>,\u201d she said. \u201cThere\u2019s a whole host of things that are deeply, deeply toxic, and frankly counter to what the conversation has been all about, which is how are we reducing costs? How are we helping real people? How are we making sure Democrats are focused on the things that are a priority to voters\u2019 everyday lives.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, Democratic strategist and pollster Stefan Hankin encouraged fellow centrists in his party to reach out to their far-left counterparts because they are coming across as \u201cold, dodgy,\u201d and not wanting to \u201cspend any effort selling [their] views or actually talking to voters about like why this approach is better.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s not about discrediting the other side,\u201d Hankin told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cIt\u2019s putting forward your view of why that should be the majority view of the party.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4691964\/will-trump-endorse-netanyahu\/\"><strong>CAN TRUMP\u2019S ENDORSEMENT SAVE THIS EMBATTLED POLITICIAN?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hankin advised Democrats to think about themselves as a coalition and find \u201cfour or five things we 100% absolutely agree on.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSomeone needs to be out there knowing that these two factions are not going to go away, so how do we live together?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Primaries reveal polling gaps for socialist candidates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2652,"featured_media":2647217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP25193638377394.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[3728,84419,15638,12428,84420],"class_list":["post-2647216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-election","tag-political-misleading","tag-polls","tag-socialism","tag-voter-expectations"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP25193638377394.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2647216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2652"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2647216"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2647216\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2647220,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2647216\/revisions\/2647220"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2647217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2647216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2647216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2647216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}