{"id":2646945,"date":"2026-08-19T12:28:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T16:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sabatos-crystal-ball-shifts-florida-senate-race-to-safe-republican\/"},"modified":"2026-08-19T12:31:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T16:31:53","slug":"sabatos-crystal-ball-shifts-florida-senate-race-to-safe-republican","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sabatos-crystal-ball-shifts-florida-senate-race-to-safe-republican\/","title":{"rendered":"Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball shifts Florida Senate race to \u2018safe Republican\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fsabatos-crystal-ball-shifts-florida-senate-race-to-safe-republican%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2646945&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball now considers the Florida Senate race as \u201csafe Republican\u201d following the Democratic primary victory of the socialist candidate, Angie Nixon, over well-funded opponent Alex Vindman. Nixon will face incumbent Senator Ashley Moody, backed by Trump, in the general election.Despite Nixon\u2019s grassroots support, her <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >campaign faces uphill battle due<\/a> to Moody\u2019s significant financial advantage, with approximately $8.4 million cash on hand compared to Nixon\u2019s less than $300,000. Political analysts, including Kyle Kondik, suggest that running a accomplished statewide campaign without significant funding is challenging for Nixon.Florida remains a stronghold for Republicans, with Trump winning the state by a 13-point margin in 2024 and Democrats historically struggling to win Senate races there since 2012. Nixon has gained attention for her activism, such as staging a sit-in over redistricting, but the race is widely expected to favor Moody.The race is also rated as \u201csafely Republican\u201d by the Cook Political Report,which expects Moody to win reelection comfortably.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball shifted the Florida <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/senate\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"8765\">Senate<\/a> race to \u201csafe <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republican\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"926\">Republican<\/a>\u201d after a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/socialists\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"3282\">socialist<\/a> candidate secured the Democratic nomination in Tuesday\u2019s primary, setting up the general election race between a left-wing state lawmaker and incumbent Sen. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ashley-moody\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"11699\">Ashley Moody<\/a> (R-FL).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">State Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democratic-socialists-of-america\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"5861\">Democratic Socialists of America<\/a>, won the Democratic nomination, defeating well-funded\u00a0retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, and will take on President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"4\">Donald Trump<\/a>-backed Moody in the general election.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4692707\/sabato-crystal-ball-florida-senate-moody-nixon\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball shifts Florida Senate race to \u2018safe Republican\u2019 after socialist win<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4690923\/trump-urged-cory-mills-drop-reelection-florida-gop-primary\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Trump says he told Cory Mills to drop reelection bid amid ethics scandal<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4692211\/fake-polls-median-strategies-midterm-elections\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>How fake polling could upend the midterm elections<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The University of Virginia Center for Politics\u2019 <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/2026-senate\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/2026-senate\/\">Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a> shifted the race further in the GOP\u2019s favor after Nixon\u2019s win, with the newsletter\u2019s managing editor, Kyle Kondik, noting Moody\u2019s significant cash advantage in the race. While Nixon, with under $300,000 in cash on hand, overcame a primary competitor with $16 million in funding, running a statewide general election without significant funding will be an uphill climb. Moody has about $8.4 million in cash for the race.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI don\u2019t see how she runs a viable statewide campaign \u2014 money isn\u2019t everything but it is important,\u201d Kondik <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/kkondik\/status\/2089866588002349285?s=20\">said<\/a> Tuesday on X.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump steadily won <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/florida\/\">Florida<\/a> in 2024 by a 13-point margin over former Vice President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"748\">Kamala Harris<\/a>. A Democrat has not won a Senate race there since 2012, when former Sen. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/bill-nelson\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"1945\">Bill Nelson<\/a> was elected to serve a third term. He was ousted by Sen. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/rick-scott\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"1989\">Rick Scott<\/a> (R-FL) in 2018.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While Nixon garnered enough grassroots support to secure the nomination, other socialist candidates in the Sunshine State did not share in her success. Establishment-backed incumbents such as Reps. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/debbie-wasserman-schultz\/\">Debbie Wasserman Schultz<\/a> (D-FL) and Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) fended off progressive challengers to defend their spots in the House.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4692436\/five-takeaway-florida-alaska-wyoming-primary\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4692436\/five-takeaway-florida-alaska-wyoming-primary\/\">FIVE TAKEAWAYS FROM FLORIDA, ALASKA, AND WYOMING PRIMARY ELECTIONS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cook Political Report also rates the Senate race as \u201csafely Republican\u201d and expects Moody to cruise to reelection. Moody was tapped by Republican Gov. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/ron-desantis\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"575\">Ron DeSantis<\/a> to fill the seat left vacant by Secretary of State <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/marco-rubio\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"51\">Marco Rubio<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nixon could still put on quite a show on the campaign trail, even if she is projected to fall to Moody. While serving in the state Senate, Nixon drew statewide attention this year for staging a sit-in over redistricting in DeSantis\u2019s office, which ended with her arrest. The socialist candidate has framed her campaign on fighting for the working class, abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and taxing the rich.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball: Florida Senate now safe Republican after socialist wins primary<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4130,"featured_media":2646946,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Ashley-Moody-Jan-2025.webp?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[62989,33017,84381],"class_list":["post-2646945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-florida-senate","tag-political-analysis","tag-sabatos-crystal-ball"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Ashley-Moody-Jan-2025.webp?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2646945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4130"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2646945"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2646945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2646949,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2646945\/revisions\/2646949"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2646946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2646945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2646945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2646945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}