{"id":2646797,"date":"2026-08-19T07:22:01","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T11:22:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-fake-polling-could-upend-the-midterm-elections\/"},"modified":"2026-08-19T07:23:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T11:23:10","slug":"how-fake-polling-could-upend-the-midterm-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-fake-polling-could-upend-the-midterm-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"How fake polling could upend the midterm elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fhow-fake-polling-could-upend-the-midterm-elections%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2646797&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses concerns about the integrity of polling data, highlighting recent instances where fake polls were intentionally released as part of a social experiment too see how misinformation spreads within political campaigns. Median strategies, the firm responsible, admitted to creating these false polls, which aimed to assess the impact of misinformation on voter perceptions. Such deceptive practices raise doubts about the reliability of polls, especially as voters and candidates begin to distrust them ahead of the midterm elections. Historical examples, such as misjudgments in Michigan, Wisconsin, and the 2016 presidential race, demonstrate how inaccurate polling can influence political outcomes and perceptions. Experts emphasize that while legitimate pollsters strive for accuracy due to professional reputation and campaign relyance, some may engage in misinformation for strategic advantages. This surroundings of unreliable polling could heighten uncertainty and impact campaign strategies and voter trust heading into the upcoming elections.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding to the polling industry\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/restoring-america\/faith-freedom-self-reliance\/4686251\/polls-wrong-midterm-elections-norc\/\">growing list of problems<\/a> is a company that has <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/4690901\/fake-polling-firm-misinformation-francesca-hong-lead-wisconsin-gubernatorial-race\/\">admitted<\/a> to releasing fake polls as a \u201csocial experiment\u201d to see what kind of impact the misinformation could have.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is this is exactly what many skeptics think normal pollsters are up to <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/in_focus\/4687990\/why-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong\/\">when the polls miss<\/a> in key races, as they <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4676215\/what-went-wrong-polls-michigan-senate-race\/\">have done recently<\/a> in Michigan and Wisconsin: releasing bogus data to shape political narratives to the benefit of their preferred candidates.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4692211\/fake-polls-median-strategies-midterm-elections\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>How fake polling could upend the midterm elections<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/house\/4691879\/meet-the-10-members-with-ongoing-ethics-investigations\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Meet the 10 members with ongoing ethics investigations<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4691366\/mike-rogers-jewish-democrats-support-against-abdul-el-sayed-michigan-senate\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Mike Rogers gains support from Jewish Democrats in battle with Israel critic Abdul el Sayed<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This could add to the uncertainty around the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/vhttps:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-election\/\">midterm elections<\/a> as voters and even candidates begin to distrust the polls.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a>, who outperformed his poll numbers to varying degrees in three straight general elections, often <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.the-independent.com\/news\/world\/americas\/us-politics\/trump-truth-social-polling-fake-news-b3026543.html\">derides<\/a> polls showing him doing poorly as \u201cfake.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCampaigns try to get polls that are favorable to them and put them out \u2026 get polls of questionable accuracy, but if they look good for you, get them to have media folks pick them up and report them in order to try to create like a bandwagon effect, which is a technique as old as politics itself,\u201d retiring Sen. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/gary-peters\/\">Gary Peters<\/a> (D-MI) <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/igorbobic\/status\/2085028294966075493\">told<\/a> reporters after <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4645582\/gary-peters-endorses-haley-stevens-michigan-senate-race\/\">his preferred candidate<\/a> outperformed her poll numbers in the Michigan <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/senate\/\">Senate<\/a> primary. \u201cWe saw polls that were questionable right from the start for me.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In that race, progressive <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/abdul-el-sayed\/\">Abdul el Sayed <\/a>jumped out to a big lead in the weeks ahead of the Democratic primary to replace Peters. After Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) appeared to be gaining momentum with endorsements from party leaders such as Gov. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/gretchen-whitmer\/\">Gretchen Whitmer <\/a>(D-MI), a series of polls showing el Sayed ahead by a wide margin \u2014 some of them conducted for supporters of his campaign \u2014 were released.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Sayed\u2019s lead in the <em>RealClearPolitics<\/em> <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/senate\/democratic-primary\/2026\/michigan\">average of polls<\/a> quickly widened from 1.6 points earlier in July to 10.2 points right before the Aug. 4 primary. El Sayed wound up winning by just 1 point. A third candidate who had withdrawn earlier in the campaign, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, received 4% of the vote.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Wisconsin a week later, socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong held a large lead in the polls for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Since July, every poll included in the <em>RealClearPolitics<\/em> average had her up by at least 11 points. But Hong, who endured a disastrous news cycle concerning her woke social media posts in the week before Election Day, ended up losing to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hong drew 39.3% of the vote, close to her share in most recent polls. Crowley widely outperformed his poll numbers by winning 39.8%. He was 24% in one of the last polls conducted in the race, by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, and just 7% in a July Marquette poll.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Median Strategies, the company behind the fake polls, was among those <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/4690901\/fake-polling-firm-misinformation-francesca-hong-lead-wisconsin-gubernatorial-race\/\">showing Hong with a substantial lead<\/a>. The company was exposed when the <em>Los Angeles Times<\/em> looked into its numbers purporting to show Mayor Karen Bass with an 11-point lead in her reelection campaign. Bass <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/4690625\/karen-bass-fake-poll-la-mayor-race\/\">touted the fake poll<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAll previously published polling releases have been withdrawn and should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data,\u201d Median Strategies said in its press release.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMedian Strategies was created as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/karen-bass-touted-fake-poll-that-showed-big-lead-in-la-mayoral-race-firm-says\/\" title=\"Karen Bass touted fake poll that showed big lead in LA mayoral ..., firm says\">short-term social experiment examining<\/a> how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification,\u201d the statement said.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bad state-level polling in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania contributed to why Trump\u2019s 2016 upset of Hillary Clinton was such a shock. He didn\u2019t seem to be particularly close to penetrating the blue wall until election night.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Republican pollsters were panned for keeping the polling averages closer than the final result in a few competitive Senate races in 2022, when the anticipated red wave failed to materialize.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cUnskewing the polls\u201d became all the rage in 2012, when some GOP data mavens thought then-President Barack Obama was unlikely to replicate his high levels of turnout and support among younger and minority voters compared to four years earlier. They believed Mitt Romney was likely doing better than most public pollsters were finding.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the Median Strategies mess is on another level. Pollsters have been struggling to get people to respond, while <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/older-liberals-are-destroying-polling\/\">some demographics bias the polls<\/a> with excessively <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/natpop.substack.com\/p\/the-midwest-polling-disaster\">high response rates<\/a>. Assumptions about the electorate that might prove unfounded in 2012 or 2022 might be truer in 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/magazine-features\/4685808\/does-anyone-want-to-win-midterm-elections\/\"><strong>DOES ANYONE WANT TO WIN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Deliberate misinformation in polling is a different matter. Private pollsters have strong incentives to be accurate, since campaigns pay good money for their data in order to make important strategic decisions. Being wrong is bad for your professional reputation. And candidates like el Sayed pay a price in the expectations game when they do worse than the polls predict.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Naysayers have long maintained some pollsters are playing a different game. In this particular case, they were right. Some will have trouble believing the polls until the one that matters most on Nov. 3. If that includes the candidates and campaigns trailing in the polls right now, it could prove significant.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fake polls as social experiments fuel distrust in elections<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2646798,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Hong-and-el-Sayed-midterm-polling-graphic.png?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[6571,84365,5894],"class_list":["post-2646797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-elections","tag-fake-polling","tag-politics"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Hong-and-el-Sayed-midterm-polling-graphic.png?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2646797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2646797"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2646797\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2646801,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2646797\/revisions\/2646801"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2646798"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2646797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2646797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2646797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}