{"id":2643500,"date":"2026-08-12T08:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T12:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/aipacs-4-4-million-gamble-on-a-california-special-election\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T08:08:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T12:08:00","slug":"aipacs-4-4-million-gamble-on-a-california-special-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/aipacs-4-4-million-gamble-on-a-california-special-election\/","title":{"rendered":"AIPAC\u2019s $4.4 million gamble on a California special election"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Faipacs-4-4-million-gamble-on-a-california-special-election%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2643500&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>AIPAC has allocated an extraordinary $4.4 million to influence a short-term California special election, aiming to oppose Democratic State Senator Aisha Wahab, despite her winning her primary decisively by 26 points. The race, set for August 18, is primarily about establishing a political deterrent for Democrats who oppose pro-Israel policies, rather than about the seat itself, which will only be occupied temporarily. much of the spending has focused on issues like public safety and social concerns rather than explicitly campaigning on Israel or Gaza, possibly to sway voters without directly mentioning those topics. Experts interpret this large expenditure as a strategic effort to send a warning to Democrats contemplating criticism of Israel or Gaza, rather than a straightforward race for the congressional seat. The outcome could influence national political behavior, highlighting how outside spending is used to shape political costs and discourage certain stances. Although Wahab\u2019s primary victory suggests a robust base, analysts caution that overwhelming outside intervention can backfire if the target candidate ultimately wins, potentially undermining the intended deterrence. this high-stakes political spending exemplifies how outside groups like AIPAC have increased their influence, frequently enough aiming to shape broader ideological debates and party dynamics beyond individual races.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/aipac\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"2620\">AIPAC<\/a> is pouring an eye-popping $4.4 million into an obscure <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/california\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"60\">California special election<\/a>, spending heavily to defeat a Democratic state senator who won the primary by 26 points for a congressional seat that will be occupied for only a few months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The extraordinary spending against state <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/sd10.senate.ca.gov\/\">Sen. Aisha Wahab<\/a> has transformed the Aug. 18 contest to replace disgraced former Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/eric-swalwell\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"2345\">Eric Swalwell<\/a> into one of the largest political investments by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and its affiliated groups anywhere in the country.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4683633\/trump-winning-issue-republicans-midterm-boost\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Trump\u2019s winning issue that could give Republicans a midterm boost<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4683834\/democrats-establishment-socialists-haley-stevens\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>The Democratic establishment\u2019s uneasy embrace of its new socialist overlords<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4683012\/aipac-gamble-california-special-election\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>AIPAC\u2019s $4.4 million gamble on a California special election<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The size of the investment, particularly in a race where Israel has barely figured into the campaign, suggests AIPAC may be fighting for something bigger than the seat itself: demonstrating the political cost for Democrats who cross the powerful pro-Israel group.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wahab and Melissa Hernandez are both Democrats. Under California\u2019s top-two primary system, the two advanced from a crowded field to the Aug. 18 special general election to fill the remainder of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/eric-swalwell\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"2345\">Swalwell\u2019s<\/a> term. Wahab won about 42.8% of the vote in the June special primary, compared with 16.8% for Hernandez. AIPAC had previously endorsed Swalwell\u2019s 2022 reelection run for Congress and donated over $61,000 to his campaign.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The winner will serve only until January, but the real prize is the incumbency advantage for the November general election when both Wahab and Hernandez are vying for election to a full two-year term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The organization\u2019s spending in California has drawn particular attention because of Wahab\u2019s outspoken views on Israel and Gaza. At an April candidate forum, Wahab said she considers the destruction in Gaza to constitute genocide. Hernandez declined to answer the question with a yes or no, saying instead that Israel had a right to defend itself while arguing that \u201cthe destruction in Gaza has gone too far and the people are paying the cost.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIPAC and AIPAC-aligned groups have put millions into the California race against Wahab, according to spending reports, making the contest an unusually expensive political fight for such a short-term prize.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Thom Hartmann, a political analyst and <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >nationally syndicated progressive radio host<\/a>, the seat itself is beside the point.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhy spend millions against a candidate who won by 26 points?\u201d Hartmann told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cBecause the seat was never the point.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hartmann argued that super PACs, including two tied to AIPAC, are spending millions to establish a political consequence for anti-Israel Democrats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNobody spends that kind of money so they can vote for four months,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re buying a demonstration, and the goal is to terrify every Democrat in the country who\u2019s thinking about saying something critical about Gaza.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">California political expert Matt Klink similarly described the spending as an exercise in deterrence.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA low-turnout August special election is exactly the kind of race big money can still flip, and four and a half months of incumbency sets Hernandez up for the real fight in November,\u201d Klink told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cSunk costs don\u2019t scare a super PAC. Precedent does.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIPAC\u2019s involvement, Klink said, sends a message to Democrats who are considering more aggressive criticism of Israel or the war in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEvery Democrat weighing a harsh word on Gaza will watch what happens to the politicians who say it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That strategy is notable because the advertising barrage has largely avoided making Israel or Gaza the explicit issue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, the attacks have focused on public safety and other issues more closely connected to voters\u2019 everyday concerns. One reported $555,000 expenditure targeted Wahab\u2019s public safety record, while a push poll asked voters about issues including sex trafficking and fentanyl.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAIPAC likely did research that highlighted that \u2018soft on sex trafficking\u2019 polls better than \u2018called Gaza a genocide,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cPublic-safety attacks let the knife swing without ever saying the word Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mike Fahey, a political expert, said the significance of the spending extends well beyond whether AIPAC can change the outcome of the California race.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe most interesting thing about the $4.4 million isn\u2019t whether AIPAC can change the outcome of this particular election,\u201d Fahey told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cIt\u2019s what the spending tells every other candidate watching.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political money, Fahey said, is not always about winning the race immediately in front of an organization, but instead, establishing a consequence for crossing it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf candidates around the country see that taking positions AIPAC strongly opposes can bring millions of dollars into even a relatively obscure special election, that has an impact well beyond this district,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is why, Fahey said, Wahab\u2019s 26-point primary victory does not necessarily make the spending irrational.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there is a risk for AIPAC, too: If Wahab wins despite the spending barrage, the result could undermine the very deterrent effect the money is intended to create.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMoney buys mailers and TV ads, not votes, once a primary base has already decided,\u201d Klink said. \u201cA Wahab win becomes progressives\u2019 example that AIPAC\u2019s \u2018cross us and we\u2019ll end your career\u2019 model is cracking.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Garry South, a veteran California political expert, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that overwhelming outside spending can sometimes become a liability for the candidate it is intended to help.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cGiven Netanyahu\u2019s and Israel\u2019s bad behavior currently \u2014 obliterating Gaza, luring Trump into a war with Iran \u2014 it\u2019s hard to figure how AIPAC\u2019s big-footed intrusion into a campaign is a positive,\u201d South said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">South added that if \u201can outside force becomes too dominant in a campaign,\u201d it can easily \u201cbecome a liability for the candidate they are attempting to elect.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fahey is more cautious about characterizing the spending as either strength or anxiety. It can be both, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe ability to put $4.4 million into a low-profile special election is an extraordinary demonstration of political strength,\u201d Fahey said. \u201cFeeling the need to spend that much money in a race where your preferred outcome is far from guaranteed can simultaneously suggest concern about whether that influence is translating into votes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIPAC has dramatically increased its political spending in recent years, putting tens of millions of dollars behind candidates it views as allies while targeting those it opposes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <em>New York Times <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/08\/04\/us\/politics\/aipac-israel-funds-spending.html\">reported that<\/a> since its first involvement in elections, AIPAC\u2019s political spending has doubled to $67.2 million, with much of the money flowing into Democratic primaries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That spending has produced mixed results. In Michigan, AIPAC-aligned groups spent millions backing Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) in the Democratic Senate primary, only to see progressive Abdul el Sayed win the nomination in what became a closely watched test of the party\u2019s direction. AIPAC-backed candidates fared better in Missouri, where Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO) defeated progressive former Rep. Cori Bush in the Democratic primary. Bush, who had previously faced significant outside spending against her, lost her congressional seat in 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That mixed record makes the Aug. 18 election potentially significant far beyond California.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf you spend $4.4 million in a relatively contained race and the candidate you\u2019re opposing still wins comfortably, other politicians are going to notice that too,\u201d Fahey said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hartmann sees the race as part of a broader debate over the influence of unlimited political spending, arguing that voters can be inundated with political messages while having little understanding of the interests behind them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/beltway-confidential\/4674410\/california-democrats-endorse-self-destructive-billionaire-tax\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4674410\">CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS ENDORSE A SELF-DESTRUCTIVE \u2018BILLIONAIRE TAX\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThis is the poisoned fruit of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/citizens-united\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"2596\">Citizens United<\/a>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Wahab victory would not mean AIPAC\u2019s political influence has disappeared, nor would it prove that outside money is irrelevant. But it could demonstrate that there are limits to what millions of dollars in negative advertising can accomplish against a candidate with a strong base and a substantial electoral advantage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AIPAC&#8217;s $4.4M push in California special election aims to challenge Wahab<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2646,"featured_media":2643501,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP26166754631865.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[33006,37666,37103],"class_list":["post-2643500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-aipac","tag-california-politics","tag-special-election"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AP26166754631865.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2643500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2646"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2643500"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2643500\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2643504,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2643500\/revisions\/2643504"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2643501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2643500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2643500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2643500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}