{"id":2642287,"date":"2026-08-09T06:49:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T10:49:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/will-newsom-and-vance-last-as-2028-front-runners-experts-weigh-in\/"},"modified":"2026-08-09T06:52:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T10:52:37","slug":"will-newsom-and-vance-last-as-2028-front-runners-experts-weigh-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/will-newsom-and-vance-last-as-2028-front-runners-experts-weigh-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Newsom and Vance last as 2028 front-runners? Experts weigh in"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwill-newsom-and-vance-last-as-2028-front-runners-experts-weigh-in%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2642287&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel suggests that early leads in presidential campaigns can be misleading, emphasizing the importance for potential candidates like himself to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/maine-school-board-bars-anti-crt-parent-from-attending-daughters-graduation\/\" title=\"Maine School Board Bars Anti-CRT Parent From Attending Daughter\u2019s Graduation\">stay open-minded<\/a> about their prospects for 2028. Although Emanuel has not officially announced his run, he is considering a Democratic candidacy, competing against other high-polling figures such as Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Kamala harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Pete Buttigieg, all of whom currently poll higher than him. Emanuel downplays the meaning of early frontrunners, comparing such leads to a &#8220;kiss of death,&#8221; and believes momentum can shift drastically over the coming years.<\/p>\n<p>Political experts agree that being a front-runner early on presents risks, as it may attract attack from rivals, though some early leaders have later secured the nomination or victory, as seen with Hillary clinton in 2016. The outcome also depends heavily on the results of the midterm elections, which could influence the Democratic primary landscape by highlighting either progressive or establishment candidates. Key early contests like Super Tuesday and the first primaries are crucial in establishing who emerges as the front-runner, but real momentum tends to be decided through voters&#8217; behavior in the primaries and caucuses.<\/p>\n<p>History shows that early success can either be sustained or fade, with notable examples including Bill Clinton\u2019s underdog rise in 1992 and kamala harris\u2019s early momentum in 2020 that dwindled.The upcoming midterms and primary performance will substantially shape the possible candidates&#8217; standing, with the political landscape still very fluid and subject to change over the next two years.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Former Chicago Mayor <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/rahm-emanuel\/\">Rahm Emanuel<\/a>\u2018s assertion that early leads in the presidential cycle could quickly dissipate may be true, but he and other likely<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2028-elections\/\"> 2028 <\/a>contenders would do well to keep their minds open.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While he has yet to announce a decision, Emanuel has suggested he will run as a Democrat in 2028. The race for the Democratic nomination is fast becoming crowded with a pack of possible rivals for the former Chicago mayor that are polling <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028\">far higher<\/a> than him, including Govs. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/gavin-newsom\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"1426\">Gavin Newsom<\/a> (D-CA) and <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/josh-shapiro\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"5122\">Josh Shapiro<\/a> (D-PA), former Vice President<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"748\"> Kamala Harris<\/a>, Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/alexandria-ocasio-cortez\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"282\">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez<\/a> (D-NY), and former Transportation Secretary <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/pete-buttigieg\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"410\">Pete Buttigieg<\/a>. Emanuel contended last week that early leads hold little weight, telling <em>Politico<\/em> that being the presumed front-runner two years out from the election is \u201cthe kiss of death.\u201d\u00a0The Democratic nominee will likely face Vice President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/jd-vance\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"7658\">JD Vance <\/a>and Secretary of State <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/marco-rubio\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"51\">Marco Rubio<\/a> on the Republican side.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/4678932\/will-newsom-vance-last-2028-front-runner\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Will Newsom and Vance last as presumed 2028 front-runners? Experts weigh in<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/4680320\/kamala-harris-democrats-ruthlessness-2028-talk-continues\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Kamala Harris says Democrats \u2018must have a certain kind of ruthlessness\u2019 as 2028 talk continues<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/4678584\/tucker-carlson-2028-allies-see-constituency\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Could Tucker Carlson run in 2028? Allies see \u2018clearly a constituency\u2019<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political experts told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that Emanuel\u2019s argument holds some merit.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere is some jeopardy to being an early front-runner because it puts a target on your back and other candidates who jump into the race at later stages immediately go on the attack to try to win support, in part by pulling it from front-runner candidates,\u201d Costas Panagopoulos, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/a-look-back-on-court-packing-attempts-in-us-history\/\" title=\"A Look Back On \u2018Court Packing\u2019 Attempts in US History\">political science professor<\/a> at Northeastern University, said during an interview. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there are caveats. In some cases, the most likely nominees early on fell spectacularly short of capturing the nomination, as happened to Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani in 2008, noted Panagopoulos. But in others, they have claimed victory, as Clinton did in 2016.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou could say the same thing happened in 2004 when the front-runners were Howard Dean and Gen. Wes Clark. They were the big front-runners, and then \u2026 John Kerry was sort of the establishment pick, and everybody kind of settled on him,\u201d Democratic strategist Adam Kinsey said. \u201cBut then you go back to \u201916, the front-runner was Hillary, and the front-runner is who was ultimately elected.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSo you can take examples of both sides \u2014 where the front-runner has done well, and then the front-runner has seemingly fallen off,\u201d he added. \u201cI understand what\u00a0Rahm Emanuel is saying, and he\u2019s not wrong. I mean, so much could happen in the next two years.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this cycle, what kind of candidate emerges as a front-runner in the midterm elections will determine who will clinch the nomination in 2028, Kinsey believes, as Democrats have been divided between socialists and establishment figures in the party.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If staunchly progressive candidates take home victories in battleground regions like Michigan, where Abdul el Sayed\u2019s rise has shaken the establishment, then Democrats could feel comfortable pushing forward a more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/stacey-abrams-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize\/\" title=\"Stacey Abrams Nominated For Nobel Peace Prize\">left-wing candidate<\/a>. Should the midterm elections reward Republicans or more establishment candidates, like Democrat Sherrod Brown\u2019s comeback campaign in Ohio, the party would likely advance a more centrist figure. <\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think it will be really interesting to see if Sherrod Brown wins and Abdul el Sayed wins,\u201d Kinsey mused. \u201cThey will probably be running very different types of campaigns to very similar electorates. And if they both win, for instance, it\u2019ll definitely show you there\u2019s more than one way to skin a cat.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019ll be interesting to see,\u201d he added. \u201cI can\u2019t remember a midterm having as much of an impact on a presidential race as this one.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When it comes to cementing front-runner status, the real test is performance in the first round of caucuses and primaries, experts said. The Super Tuesday primaries are a classic example, as they take place early on in the election cycle, typically at the beginning of March, and are traditionally the biggest day nationwide for primaries and caucuses before Election Day in November.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI really think the rubber meets the road when the ballots are actually cast,\u201d Kinsey said, pointing to Bill Clinton\u2019s 1992 campaign. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the time, Clinton trailed his top rival by<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/ALLPOLITICS\/1996\/candidates\/democrat\/clinton\/campaign.92.shtml\"> 20 points<\/a> in New Hampshire, the first primary election of the cycle. But the future president managed to eke out a second-place finish in the state, and subsequently swept a wave of Super Tuesday victories the following month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf you win one of the first primaries, or you finish like Bill Clinton did going way back to \u201992 \u2026 you can turn that into momentum,\u201d the strategist said. \u201cAnd when you really need to catch fire is when the vote is happening in all 50 states. So you can put together a modest campaign and then be really successful early on, and that\u2019s when you need that momentum.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While Clinton was able to secure an underdog victory, sometimes the opposite happens, with those coronated early on running out of steam once campaign season heats up. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kinsey pointed to Harris\u2019s 2020 presidential campaign, when she enjoyed a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2019\/12\/03\/politics\/kamala-harris-2020-campaign\">running start<\/a> early in 2019 and inaugural stardom in the first presidential debate, only to lose ground in the polls to then-candidate Joe Biden and drop out before voting even began.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cShe was kind of the front-runner, and then Biden ended up taking the thing, sort of unexpectedly,\u201d he said. \u201cYou don\u2019t want to peak too early, and I think peaking too early is what most folks would say happened with Harris\u2019s first campaign because she had a great campaign team.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/in_focus\/4520802\/rahm-emanuel-case-against-democratic-party\/\"><strong>RAHM EMANUEL\u2019S CASE AGAINST HIS OWN PARTY<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vance, Newsom, Sen. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/jon-ossoff\/\" data-type=\"post_tag\" data-id=\"3194\">Jon Ossoff <\/a>(D-GA), Ocasio-Cortez, and Harris are viewed as some of the top likely presidential contenders as of early August. Whether they can retain that status remains to be seen, Panagopoulos said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhether the lead of current front-runners is sustainable depends on what happens over the next two years,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd I don\u2019t think voters start thinking seriously about the presidential race at least until after the midterms.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emanuel warns early leads may fade; contenders should stay flexible<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3142,"featured_media":2642288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-collage-midj9p93o-1786148586206-e1786148865601.jpg?1786134456&amp;w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[63972,34257,3678,5894,15469],"class_list":["post-2642287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-2028-elections","tag-expert-analysis","tag-newsom","tag-politics","tag-vance"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-collage-midj9p93o-1786148586206-e1786148865601.jpg?1786134456&amp;w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2642287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3142"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2642287"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2642287\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2642291,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2642287\/revisions\/2642291"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2642288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2642287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2642287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2642287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}