{"id":2628957,"date":"2026-07-13T07:26:02","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T11:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-set-to-dodge-biden-level-inflation-despite-iran-disruptions\/"},"modified":"2026-07-13T07:27:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T11:27:24","slug":"us-set-to-dodge-biden-level-inflation-despite-iran-disruptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-set-to-dodge-biden-level-inflation-despite-iran-disruptions\/","title":{"rendered":"US set to dodge Biden-level inflation despite Iran disruptions"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fus-set-to-dodge-biden-level-inflation-despite-iran-disruptions%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2628957&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The recent inflation increase in the U.S. is not expected to escalate into a severe inflation crisis like that experienced during the late 1970s. While inflation peaked at nearly 9% in June 2022 under President Joe Biden, it has generally decreased and was near the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target earlier this year. However, it rose again to 4.2%, mainly due to energy price hikes caused by the war with Iran and disruptions in oil transit routes. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core inflation remains relatively controlled at about 2.9%.Experts believe the peak of inflation is likely behind us and expect it to gradually decline as energy prices stabilize after the conflict ends. The Federal Reserve\u2019s current interest rates, which are higher than during the pandemic surge, are seen as effective in managing inflation. The recent rise was driven more by energy costs rather than monetary policy, which remains under control. The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment and ongoing job growth, supporting expectations that inflation will decrease to around 3.6% by the end of the year. The new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is focused on restoring inflation to the 2% target, with market predictions suggesting further rate hikes before the midterm elections. the factors driving inflation now differ from previous years, making a runaway inflation scenario unlikely.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The wave of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/inflation\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"728\">inflation<\/a> in the past few months is not expected to grow into an inflation tsunami of the kind that rocked the United States as it emerged from the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/coronavirus\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"208\">pandemic<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation crested at nearly 9% in June 2022 under then-President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/joe-biden\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"471\">Joe Biden<\/a> \u2014 the worst in generations \u2014 but has generally fallen since, and dipped to near the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target at the start of this year. Since the war in <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iran\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"100\">Iran<\/a>, it has shot back up to 4.2%, leading some to wonder if the worst is yet to come, or even if the U.S. could suffer a second round of even worse inflation, as happened in the late 1970s.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4644757\/house-comes-back-impasse-save-america-act\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Johnson confronts GOP rebellion over SAVE America Act as House returns to Washington<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4631354\/august-2026-social-security-direct-payment-19-days\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>August Social Security direct payment worth $994 goes out in 19 days<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4631317\/second-round-july-social-security-payments-goes-out-three-days\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Second round of July Social Security payments goes out in three days<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/policy\/finance-and-economy\/4639752\/investors-think-fed-chairman-warsh-hike-rates-midterms\/\"><strong>INVESTORS NOW THINK NEW FED CHAIRMAN WARSH WILL HIKE RATES BEFORE MIDTERM ELECTIONS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But experts say the fundamentals underlying the 2021 and 2022 bout of inflation are markedly different from what is driving the most recent uptick.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe reason we\u2019re not going to get 9% inflation is because monetary policy is under control,\u201d Ryan Young, senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>. \u201cThe COVID inflation came from $5 trillion of balance sheet growth, so that was monetary.\u201d<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative; width: 100%; height: 0px; padding: 100% 0px 0px; overflow: hidden; will-change: transform;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/4db7cdf5-9e37-4b33-97e2-8016a6af835c?src=embed&#038;embed_type=responsive_iframe\" title=\"Fed balance sheet\" allowfullscreen allow=\"fullscreen\" style=\"position: absolute; width: 100%; height: 100%; top: 0px; left: 0px; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; border-image: initial; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When inflation began spiking in early 2021, the economy was emerging from the pandemic, and the government was pumping stimulus money into the economy while the Fed held interest rates near zero for an extended period.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Right now, the Fed\u2019s interest rate target range is 3.50% to 3.75%, and many investors expect the Fed to raise rates again this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is driving this year\u2019s multimonth surge from 2.4% inflation in January to 4.2% as of last month is almost entirely energy price increases from the war with Iran.<\/p>\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"4093f128-b217-4436-bdee-50ca9d3f3e04\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"May 2026 cpi for homepage\"><\/div>\n<p><script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script>    <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil and gasoline prices shot up as oil tankers were blocked from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing headline inflation to move higher in turn. Stripping out volatile energy and food prices, though, so-called core inflation is running at a more manageable 2.9%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, say that when the war wraps up and energy prices continue to fall, headline inflation will come back down as well.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe\u2019re probably at or near where it\u2019s going to peak, in the low 4s,\u201d Young said, referring to the 4% level inflation is hovering around right now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst for the Hamrick Brief, also pointed out to the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that not only are economists not expecting an inflation wave as in 2022, but neither are Fed officials.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every other meeting, the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >central bank releases updated multiyear projections<\/a> for inflation, gross domestic product, and unemployment. At its meeting last month, Fed officials seemed to agree that inflation would cool off some by the end of the year, rather than move higher.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The officials said they see inflation, as gauged by the personal consumption expenditures index, running at 3.6% by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hamrick said there were a \u201chandful of factors that converged\u201d that allowed inflation to spike to 9% following the pandemic.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap wex-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\" style=\"min-height:90px\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" hidden>Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He noted the trillions of dollars pumped into the economy by Congress during the pandemic, the Fed holding interest rates so low for so long, quantitative easing by the central bank, increased household savings from the lockdowns, and more.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThen we also had the supply chain disruptions that began with the pandemic and then got a second act with Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine,\u201d Hamrick added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed under former Chairman Jerome Powell held rates low even as inflation was increasing. Powell infamously said inflation would be \u201ctransitory.\u201d New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, on the other hand, appears to be focused on bringing inflation back down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At a press conference following his first Fed meeting as chairman last month, Warsh said the Fed\u2019s statement from the meeting indicated that the central bank is \u201cunambiguously and unanimously\u201d committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One factor boosting the odds that the Fed increases rates in the next few months is that the labor market has remained resilient.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy has added jobs at a pace strong enough to keep unemployment trending down. The economy <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4633353\/economy-adds-jobs-june-fewer-expected\/\">added 57,000 jobs<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 2. That is low by historical standards.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, while President Donald Trump repeatedly admonished Powell for not cutting interest rates, he has \u2014 at least for now \u2014 seemed to back off on such an aggressive posture with Warsh.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> spoke with the president by phone Friday morning, and Trump indicated that he will defer to Warsh on interest rates. And markets are now pricing in about a 76% chance that the Fed will raise rates before the November midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere should be a reduction, but I\u2019ll go with the chairman,\u201d Trump said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4643633\/trump-defer-warsh-rate-hike-fed-midterms\/\"><strong>TRUMP SAYS HE WILL DEFER TO FED CHAIRMAN KEVIN WARSH ON RATE HIKE BEFORE MIDTERM ELECTIONS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regardless of what happens with interest rates this year, the factors at play simply don\u2019t warrant the same concern for an inflation tsunami like what the country experienced a few years ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s hard to see how you could replicate this convergence of events that occurred in recent years that would all then contribute to that truly historically outsized burst of inflation,\u201d Hamrick said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recent inflation unlikely to cause a crisis like 2022&#8217;s surge<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3360,"featured_media":2628958,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/warsh-inflation.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[3620,51942,5708,82630,38981],"class_list":["post-2628957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-biden","tag-economic-outlook","tag-inflation","tag-iran-disruptions","tag-us-economy"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/warsh-inflation.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2628957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3360"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2628957"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2628957\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2628961,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2628957\/revisions\/2628961"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2628958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2628957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2628957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2628957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}