{"id":2615968,"date":"2026-06-19T06:22:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T10:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/interest-rate-cut-unlikely-after-iran-deal\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T06:24:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T10:24:45","slug":"interest-rate-cut-unlikely-after-iran-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/interest-rate-cut-unlikely-after-iran-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Interest rate cut unlikely after Iran deal"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">14<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Finterest-rate-cut-unlikely-after-iran-deal%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2615968&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Teh article discusses the complex economic implications following the proclamation of an end-of-hostility deal between the United States and iran. Despite this diplomatic breakthrough and falling oil prices, investor expectations remain cautious, with many believing the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain or even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/morgan-stanley-threat-of-high-inflation-is-real\/\" title=\"Morgan Stanley: Threat of ... ... is real\">raise interest rates<\/a> this year due to persistent inflation concerns. Inflation has surged since Middle East conflicts began, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sorry-legacy-media-the-fbis-trump-raid-doesnt-change-the-fact-that-bidens-presidency-sucks\/\" title=\"Sorry Legacy Media, The FBI\u2019s Trump Raid Doesn\u2019t Change The Fact That Biden\u2019s Presidency Sucks\">consumer price index rising<\/a> to 4.2% in May and producer prices increasing even more sharply.Even though oil prices reacted to the peace agreement, experts warn that energy prices may stay elevated longer due to infrastructure damage and ongoing uncertainties, which could prolong inflationary pressures. Additionally, the strong labor market, exemplified by job growth and low unemployment, gives the Fed more room to keep interest rates high. while there are signs of advancement, economic analysts remain cautious about inflation easing quickly and highlight risks related to energy prices, geopolitical stability, and market confidence.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The announcement of an end-of-hostility deal between the United States and <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iran\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"100\">Iran<\/a> has done little to shift investor expectations that the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/federal-reserve\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"726\">Federal Reserve<\/a> will hold or even raise <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/interest-rates\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"727\">interest rates<\/a> this year, even as oil prices fall in response to the apparent diplomatic breakthrough.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/business\/4612357\/ford-focus-recall-engine-problems-nhtsa\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Ford recalls 250,000 Focus models, citing engine problems<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/business\/4610892\/canadian-tourism-us-rebound-51st-state-tariffs\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Canadian tourism to US begins to rebound after 51st state, tariffs debacle<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/justice\/4609639\/judge-dismisses-elon-musk-xai-lawsuit-openai-trade-secrets\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Judge dismisses xAI lawsuit accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"4\">Donald Trump<\/a> recently announced the planned signing of the ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran. Just days after the announcement, crude prices <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/daily-on-energy\/4611156\/daily-on-energy-oil-tumbling-strait-watch-500-million-rare-earths-loan\/\">dropped below $80 per gallon<\/a> for the first time since March. The agreement would mean a key release valve on <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/energy\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"8777\">energy<\/a> prices, the biggest driver of the latest wave of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/inflation\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"728\">inflation<\/a> in recent months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-1\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap\" style=\"min-height:5px;\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" style=\"display:none;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-15\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/senate\/4611448\/congress-deal-pass-housing-bill-affordability-crisis\/\"><strong>DEAL REACHED TO PASS MAJOR BILL MEANT TO ADDRESS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But investors still don\u2019t think that an end to the war, and presumably a more stable <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/strait-of-hormuz\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"21488\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, will be enough to cause inflation to fall to a level this year where the Fed will feel comfortable cutting interest rates \u2014 something that has long been the biggest goal for Trump on the monetary policy front.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOne thing would be that there\u2019s uncertainty as to whether this deal is going to stick or whether oil prices might go back up,\u201d Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-2\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap\" style=\"min-height:5px;\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" style=\"display:none;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-16\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation has mounted quickly since the start of hostilities in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\">(Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p>&#8221; data-large-file=&#8221;https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2026\/06\/localimages\/BizCover.062426.jpg?w=696&#8243; height=&#8221;658&#8243; width=&#8221;1024&#8243; &#8220;https:><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer price index inflation rose four-tenths of a percentage point <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/policy\/finance-and-economy\/4601571\/inflation-rose-may-highest-three-years-iran-energy-prices\/\">to 4.2%<\/a> for the year ending in May \u2014 that marks the highest rate of annual inflation since April 2023. In just the month of May, prices rose 0.5%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-3\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap\" style=\"min-height:5px;\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" style=\"display:none;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-17\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-3\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That was all buttressed by an even more concerning inflation report from the Producer Price Index. In that gauge, inflation lurched eight-tenths of a percentage point to 6.5% for the year ending in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much of the most recent inflation in the CPI has been driven by gasoline prices, but Lachman pointed out that core inflation, a measure that strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.9% for the year ending in May. That is nearly a full percentage point above the Fed\u2019s 2% level.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And Dennis Lockhart, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, noted that \u201cthe Fed had an inflation problem before the Iran war, and the economic circumstances still suggest prioritizing inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-4\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap\" style=\"min-height:5px;\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" style=\"display:none;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-25\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhich certainly will be affected by oil prices, but may take longer than simply the time it takes for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/absurdity-of-california-oil-profits-tax-becoming-more-obvious\/\" title=\"Absurdity of California ... Profits Tax Becoming More Obvious\">spot oil price<\/a> to drop,\u201d Lockhart told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And inflation was too high even before the Iran war, with policymakers at the Fed declining to lower interest rates at the start of the year, even before energy prices shot up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s inflation target \u2014 the level of annual inflation that it considers to be healthy in a well-functioning economy \u2014 is 2%. The last time inflation was running at or below 2% was in February 2021, as the economy was still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wex-inarticle-ad wex-inarticle-ad-art-dsk-inart-5\">\n<div class=\"wex-ad-wrap\" style=\"min-height:5px;\"><span class=\"wex-ad-label\" style=\"display:none;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-3182201-26\" data-wex-ad=\"art-dsk-inart-5\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just this past December, it was running at 2.7%, and in January and February, it was running at 2.4%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lachman also pointed out that, absent Iran, many economists believe that the Trump administration\u2019s aggressive tariff policies are also not helping the inflationary landscape. He predicted that it would be some time before inflation fell back to the 2% goal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI think it\u2019s going to take a long while, because you know \u2026 they\u2019ve been pushing up the prices with the tariffs; there are a whole bunch of things going on,\u201d Lachman said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And even though oil prices have dropped in response to the peace agreement announcement, some believe that oil and energy prices will remain elevated for longer \u2014 essentially, that they will not simply tumble to pre-war levels and quickly drive down headline inflation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ryan Young, senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that he thinks oil prices will remain high at least into 2027. He said that a big part of that is that oil and energy infrastructure was destroyed during the war and will take time to build, which will affect the oil supply coming from the region.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAnd then, at least at this point, we still don\u2019t know if Iran\u2019s going to do tolls or fees for services rendered, or however they were putting it, so that\u2019s going to keep oil prices high,\u201d Young said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, also said he doesn\u2019t think that the oil price woes are over yet. He highlighted the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and other uncertainties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn addition, just because the war is over does not mean that the negative oil supply effects are \u2014 since there is a lag in how oil flows, prices will remain higher until supplies on things like the refill of the SPR are complete,\u201d Cox told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There could also be concerns from investors that the latest ceasefire deal doesn\u2019t hold or is violated, and things just go back to how they were.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere\u2019s much yet to happen in the agreement with Iran that could derail it, so you may see the markets being somewhat cautious about just jumping to a conclusion that this necessarily spells lower inflation, lower pressure on the Fed, and so forth,\u201d said Lockhart, who worked with new Fed Chairman <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kevin-warsh\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"20643\">Kevin Warsh<\/a> for several years at the Fed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The labor market has also been stronger than expected, meaning that the Fed has more leeway to focus on the inflation side of its dual mandate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy once again beat expectations and added <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4595838\/economy-jobs-may-iran-energy-crunch\/\">172,000 new payroll jobs<\/a> in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The unemployment rate remained at a relatively low 4.3%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4596017\/fed-kevin-warsh-pressure-rates-higher-labor-market-strength\/\"><strong>FED AND WARSH UNDER INCREASING PRESSURE TO KEEP RATES HIGHER THANKS TO LABOR MARKET STRENGTH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4590912\/job-openings-rise-highest-level-nearly-two-years\/\">showed that<\/a> job openings increased from 6.9 million in March to 7.6 million in April, the highest level since May 2024. The reading was much higher than anticipated. Most economists were expecting job openings to remain static, not rise by 731,000.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe economy is hot, the financial markets are booming, there\u2019s a lot of support to the economy, so you know that doesn\u2019t surprise me that they\u2019re still thinking that maybe a rate hike is needed,\u201d Lachman said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Zach Halaschak (@zhalaschak) is the economics reporter for the <\/em>Washington Examiner,<em> based in Washington, D.C.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US-Iran peace deal fails to alter Fed rate hike expectations<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3360,"featured_media":2615969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/BizCover.062426.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[34402,58306,51509,33477,77512],"class_list":["post-2615968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-economic-policy","tag-financial-markets","tag-global-economy","tag-interest-rates","tag-iran-deal-2"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/BizCover.062426.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2615968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3360"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2615968"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2615968\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2615972,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2615968\/revisions\/2615972"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2615969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2615968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2615968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2615968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}