{"id":2611980,"date":"2026-06-08T12:12:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T16:12:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollster-identifies-the-voters-that-could-rescue-republican-midterm-hopes\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T12:17:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T16:17:00","slug":"pollster-identifies-the-voters-that-could-rescue-republican-midterm-hopes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollster-identifies-the-voters-that-could-rescue-republican-midterm-hopes\/","title":{"rendered":"Pollster identifies the voters that could rescue Republican midterm hopes"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpollster-identifies-the-voters-that-could-rescue-republican-midterm-hopes%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2611980&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Monday\u2019s *Washington Secrets* looks at midterm prospects and what might stop Republicans from having a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/in-pennsylvania-dave-mccormick-takes-on-the-most-inconsequential-senator\/\" title=\"In Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick Takes on &#039;the Most Inconsequential Senator&#039;\">disastrous election year<\/a>. J.L. Partners projects Democrats with a 7-point edge on the generic ballot, translating into an 80% chance of winning the House and only a 40% chance of flipping the Senate. The key \u201cpath out\u201d for Republicans, according too co-founder James Johnson, is turning out \u201cmid-propensity voters\u201d-people who voted in 2024 but show only moderate likelihood of voting in the midterms. He estimates they make up about 20% of the electorate, skew toward Trump, and are younger and more likely to be Black; persuading them is difficult as conventional messages about what Republicans could deliver via controlling Congress don\u2019t move them much. Johnson says the most effective tested pitch was that Republican wins in the midterms would help a Republican presidential candidate in 2028.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson also points to broader headwinds: economic sentiment has worsened sharply, and redistricting is saeid to have had only limited effects on the overall competitive\/non-competitive district balance. His outlook remains largely unchanged-Democrats should have an easier time keeping\/claiming the House while the Senate is still expected to stay under Republican control.<\/p>\n<p>The newsletter then turns to a quieter story: the White House Correspondents\u2019 Association\u2019s elections for four board posts. While voting is underway (including for president in 2028-29), only four candidates have filed and all are unopposed, prompting criticism that the moment-shaped by Trump\u2019s actions toward the press-offers too little debate and too few fresh ideas.<\/p>\n<p>It closes with a \u201cquote of the day,\u201d observations about changing dynamics between Trump and Netanyahu, and brief links for lunchtime reading.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Welcome to Monday\u2019s edition of <\/em>Washington Secrets<em>, where we are trying to find a World Cup wallchart before Thursday. Today, we look at the latest midterm predictions and whether Republicans might be able to stave off the worst possible forecasts, and ask what\u2019s up with the White House Correspondents\u2019 Association?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democratic-party\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"288\">Democrats<\/a> have a 7-point lead over Republicans in the generic ballot ahead of November\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/midterm-elections\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/midterm-elections\/\">midterm elections<\/a>, according to the latest data from J.L. Partners. That is enough to give the party an 80% chance of taking the House and a 40% chance of flipping the Senate.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4598870\/pollster-voters-rescue-republican-midterm-hopes\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Pollster identifies the voters who could rescue Republican midterm hopes \u2014 and the message that motivates them<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4596612\/white-house-report-card-confusing-week-congress\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>White House report card: A confusing week for Congress and the rest of us<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4594825\/jill-biden-skirts-substance-softballs-book-tour-dc\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Jill Biden skirts substance for softballs as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/white-house-report-card-a-confusing-week-for-congress-and-the-rest-of-us\/\" title=\"...: A confusing week for Congress and the rest of us\">birthday book tour<\/a> comes to DC<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those numbers are not unusual in this sort of election year, as any analyst will tell you. When one party holds the White House, House, and Senate, they are set up for a shellacking.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut all is not lost for Republicans,\u201d according to James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners. \u201cIf they can turn out what we are calling mid-propensity voters, then things might look different.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Johnson delivered his election update to a small group of strategists and clients last week, setting out the political landscape, potential surprises, and an overall forecast for control of Congress.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And at its heart is the question that has long loomed over this round of elections, exercising strategists, pollsters, and pundits: What happens when President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s name is not on the ballot?<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It all makes bleak reading for Republicans unless they can harness these MPVs. They are voters who may have turned out for the presidential election, but score themselves at 4 to 7 out of 10 on a voting likelihood scale for the midterms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Johnson said they make up about 20% of the electorate, and skew towards Trump. Some 36% said they backed him in 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They are also disproportionately young and black, representing key components of the coalition that powered Trump to victory.\u00a0Persuading them to turn out in November could have a significant impact, said Johnson.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that will not be easy. It is a group that does not respond to the usual messaging around how controlling Congress will help Trump deliver his agenda, for example.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He tested three messages and, to his surprise, the one that did best was: \u201cRepublicans winning the midterms will help a Republican Presidential candidate in 2028.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some 24% said it was an unconvincing message, compared with 43% who said it would convince them to vote for a Republican candidate. Those were better numbers than messages around Republican members doing a good job in Congress (a net positive of 7 points) or about the president\u2019s agenda (a net positive of 5 points).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lesson for campaigns, said Johnson, was that a lot of voters did not necessarily see things the same way as strategists did.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn fact, a lot of them don\u2019t actually know what the midterms are about,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His analysis also suggests that redistricting efforts across the country have had a minimal impact on the headline figures. Overall, the net impact has been to shift six districts from \u201ccompetitive\u201d to \u201cnon-competitive\u201d status (from 45 to 39 in total).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And Republicans still face significant headwinds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.L. Partners\u2019 tracking poll of <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >economic sentiment shows negative feelings reached<\/a> an all-time high for the year last month. Some 59% of respondents said things were getting worse, compared with just 38% in January.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As things stand, Johnson predicted \u2014 and he cautioned that the midterms are still five months away \u2014 that Democrats will have an easy time flipping the House, but that the Senate most likely remains in Republican hands. His forecast:<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>50%: DEM gain, 230+ seats<\/li>\n<li>30%: DEM gain, 218-229 seats<\/li>\n<li>15%: GOP hold, 218-229 seats<\/li>\n<li>5%: GOP gain, 230+ seats<\/li>\n<li>DEM gain 230+ seats \u2013 <strong>50%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Senate<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>60%: GOP holds majority<\/li>\n<li>40%: DEM gains majority<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"h-white-house-correspondents-association-s-damp-squib-of-an-election\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">White House Correspondents\u2019 Association\u2019s damp squib of an election<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voting for four posts on the board of the White House Correspondents\u2019 Association is underway. Up for grabs is the top job (president) in 2028-29, as well as positions for print, radio, and photo reps.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There cannot be a more important time for the association. Trump has run rings around the White House press corps, blowing up the pool system that guaranteed independent coverage of the president \u2014 he replaced it with a White House system that allows staffers to pick and choose who is in and who is out \u2014 and banning outlets from Air Force One.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump\u2019s radical approach has been met by the same old business-as-usual stance from the WHCA, long seen by ordinary members as a career-stepping stone for office holders. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nothing is likely to change this time. Although there is some notable fresh blood in the running, only four candidates have signed up for the four seats. Each is standing unopposed, including <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/whca.press\/officer\/courtney-subramanian\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/whca.press\/officer\/courtney-subramanian\/\">Courtney Subramanian<\/a>, of Bloomberg News, who is running for president.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If ever there was a need for robust debate and new ideas, then this is the moment. With so much change in the air, with so many questions about press freedom and the future of news, this all seems like a huge missed opportunity.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-quote-of-the-day\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quote of the day<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI call the shots. I call all the shots,\u201d Trump <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/4598524\/trump-netanyahu-not-retaliate-iran-strikes-report\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/4598524\/trump-netanyahu-not-retaliate-iran-strikes-report\/\">told <em>The Financial Times <\/em>on Sunday.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He was talking about his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel\u2019s prime minister, who very much \u201cdoesn\u2019t call the shots.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has become a critical question in recent weeks. At the start of the conflict, the two leaders were in agreement. It didn\u2019t matter who called the shots when both men wanted swift strikes to end Iran\u2019s nuclear threat. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It looks different now. Trump still needs a swift conclusion to the war, while Netanyahu remains focused on ending the existential threat to Israel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No wonder Netanyahu initially ignored Trump and retaliated against Iran\u2019s strikes on Sunday, before both sides called a halt.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where does that leave things? Iran\u2019s strikes yesterday show that Tehran is well aware of the gap between the U.S. and Israel. It may have spent much of the conflict on the back foot, but it still believes it has cards to play or, indeed, shots to call.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-lunchtime-reading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lunchtime reading<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4598284\/unease-hostility-defiant-support-maine-residents-graham-platner\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4598284\/unease-hostility-defiant-support-maine-residents-graham-platner\/\"><strong>Unease and hostility meets defiant support as Maine residents grapple with Graham Platner allegations<\/strong><\/a>: \u201cI am voting for Janet Mills; people don\u2019t remember she is still on the ballot,\u201d said one voter. \u201cThis Graham guy, to me, he looks like a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gov-whitmer-media-caught-in-another-lie-anarchist-arrested-for-plot-to-kidnap-and-kill-whitmer-hates-president-trump-trump-is-a-tyrant-video\/\" title=\"Gov. Whitmer, Media Caught in Another Lie - Anarchist Arrested For Plot to Kidnap and Kill Whitmer Hates President ..., &#039;... is a Tyrant&#039; (VIDEO)\">white supremacist<\/a> with a Democratic sign on top of his head, and I like Janet; she\u2019s proving herself, and I\u2019m with her.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/arts-culture\/books\/ike-and-winston-review-profiles-in-greatness-80579eb4\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/arts-culture\/books\/ike-and-winston-review-profiles-in-greatness-80579eb4\">\u2018Ike and Winston\u2019 Review: Profiles in Greatness<\/a><\/strong>: Two great men faced existential threats and responded in different ways. The case for Churchill\u2019s greatness was always clear, and this book sets out the case for Eisenhower, too.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>You are reading <\/em>Washington Secrets<em>, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/l\/email-protection#61120402130415122116001209080f06150e0f0419000c080f04134f020e0c\"><span class=\"__cf_email__\" data-cfemail=\"51223432233425221126302239383f36253e3f3429303c383f34237f323e3c\">[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/a> with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you\u2019d like to sign up, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/click1.trk-washingtonexaminer.com\/xprvgynrhhctscghtpnrptnqlrtypjmjlkrlcnpvhgpdcr_jtjrvfbrrsmwbqmnsbmvsv.html?a=Washington+Secrets+Lara+Trump&#038;b=01%2F21%2F2026&#038;c=WEX_Washington+Secrets&#038;d=25812206&#038;e=da31c45955c9411a6c40ecd0e967fa8def1f0fc08362faaa0dee09386ff5c41b\">click here<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to Washington Secrets-midterm forecasts, GOP odds, and WHCA updates. Democrats lead by 7 points<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4136,"featured_media":2611981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/AP26154583126175.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[35835,34250,15638,32085,81015],"class_list":["post-2611980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-campaign-strategy","tag-midterm-elections","tag-polls","tag-republican-party","tag-voter-targeting"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/AP26154583126175.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2611980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4136"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2611980"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2611980\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2611984,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2611980\/revisions\/2611984"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2611981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2611980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2611980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2611980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}