{"id":2610513,"date":"2026-06-04T08:31:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T12:31:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/midterm-countdown-the-most-expensive-midterm-ever\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T08:33:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T12:33:58","slug":"midterm-countdown-the-most-expensive-midterm-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/midterm-countdown-the-most-expensive-midterm-ever\/","title":{"rendered":"Midterm Countdown: The most expensive midterm ever?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">14<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fmidterm-countdown-the-most-expensive-midterm-ever%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2610513&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The piece argues that the 2026 election cycle is already shaping up to be unusually expensive and tightly contested, potentially matching or exceeding the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/online-black-friday-sales-topped-record-9-billion\/\" title=\"Online Black Friday Sales Topped Record  Billion\">record-breaking spending<\/a> seen in 2022. It cites early fundraising and ad-spend milestones-such as, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico raising over $40 million and Maine\u2019s presumptive Democratic nominee Graham Platner raising over $16 million-while noting Republicans have been pouring money into key races after setbacks in primaries, such as efforts to rescue Sen. john Cornyn.<\/p>\n<p>It also frames 2026 as a test of how much \u201ccandidate quality\u201d affects voter decisions, highlighting concerns around major nominees\u2019 personal and legal controversies. In parallel, the article describes a growing willingness among some Democrats-especially in traditionally Republican-leaning states-to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-turn-to-independents-in-red-state-races\/\" title=\"Democrats turn to ...s in red-state ...s\">quietly support independent candidates<\/a> rather of fully leaning into the Democratic label, reflecting internal concern that the party brand can be a liability. Examples include efforts around independent candidates in Nebraska, Montana, and Alaska.<\/p>\n<p>it reports that prediction markets are currently leaning toward Democrats for the House and somewhat for the Senate: kalshi gives Democrats a 79% chance to retake the House and republicans a 58% chance to keep the Senate,while Polymarket shows slightly higher House odds for democrats (82%) and a narrower Democratic edge for the Senate (54%).  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This story is part of a series of monthly snapshots from the\u00a0Washington Examiner, titled <strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4547563\/midterm-countdown-democrats-lead-gop-path-through\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4547563\/midterm-countdown-democrats-lead-gop-path-through\/\">Midterm Countdown<\/a><\/strong>, gauging the state of the 2026 election cycle. Scroll down to the bottom of the story for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-have-early-2026-lead-but-gop-sees-new-path-forward\/\" title=\"Democrats have early 2026 lead, but GOP sees new path forward\">latest prediction market odds<\/a> of who is going to win.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >2022 midterm elections shattered spending records<\/a>, with campaigns and outside groups pouring more than <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.opensecrets.org\/news\/2022\/11\/press-release-total-cost-of-2022-state-and-federal-elections-projected-exceed-16-7-billion\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.opensecrets.org\/news\/2022\/11\/press-release-total-cost-of-2022-state-and-federal-elections-projected-exceed-16-7-billion\">$16.7 billion<\/a> into state and federal race, according to Open Secrets. There are already early signs that 2026 could surpass it.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4594471\/house-democrat-2026-elections-four-candidates-flagship-program\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>House Democratic campaign arm bullish on 2026 elections, adds four candidates to flagship program<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4592504\/hilton-becerra-steyer-early-lead-california-governor-race\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Hilton, Becerra, Steyer in early lead in California governor\u2019s race as vote count continues<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4590404\/california-results-22nd-congressional-district-primary-valadao-bains-villegas\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>California 22nd Congressional district primary results: Rep. David Valadao advances to runoff<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Republicans and their allies spent more than $100 million trying to save Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), only to watch Attorney General Ken Paxton defeat him in a primary. The spending blitz underscored just how much money both parties are willing to deploy in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/new-york-voter-rolls-riddled-with-questionable-entries-watchdog-warns\/\" title=\"New York voter rolls riddled with questionable entries, watchdog warns\">high-stakes races<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrats are setting records of their own. Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has already raised more than  <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fec.gov\/data\/committee\/C00919084\/?tab=summary\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.fec.gov\/data\/committee\/C00919084\/?tab=summary\">$40 million<\/a>, while Graham Platner, the presumptive Democratic nominee in Maine, has hauled in more than <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fec.gov\/data\/candidate\/S6ME00373\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.fec.gov\/data\/candidate\/S6ME00373\/\">$16 million<\/a> in his bid to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The spending surge extends beyond the Senate. Rep. Thomas Massie\u2019s (R-KY) primary became the most expensive in history after outside groups and political organizations flooded the race with money. Outside groups spent more than $30 million on ads alone to oust Massie, who lost to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein. <\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With control of Congress likely to hinge on a handful of races, strategists in both parties expect campaign spending to reach unprecedented levels as November approaches.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-candidate-quality\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Candidate quality<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-election\/\">2026 election<\/a> is shaping up to be another test of how much \u201c<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/premium\/3801740\/candidates-matter-gop-primary-voters-best-position-win\/\">candidate quality<\/a>\u201d matters to voters, and the answer could very well decide which party controls <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/congress\/\">Congress<\/a> next year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrats are poised to nominate Graham Platner as their candidate for Senate in Maine despite a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/elections\/graham-platners-wife-flagged-sexually-explicit-texts-to-his-senate-campaign-628ec832?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1\">\u201csexting\u201d scandal<\/a> that has raised fresh doubts about his ability to defeat five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Texas, Republicans have <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4584684\/thune-backs-ken-paxton-texas-primary\/\">grudgingly embraced<\/a> Ken Paxton after they tried, and failed, to prop up four-term incumbent Cornyn. Paxton has been dogged by corruption allegations and an affair that led to his 2023 impeachment in the Texas House.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Paxton and Platner races are hardly the only ones hinging on voters\u2019 willingness to overlook a candidate\u2019s flaws. In the House, both parties are dealing with candidates accused of affairs, insider trading, and more.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-democrats-flirt-with-going-independent\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Democrats flirt with going independent<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democrats\/\">Democrats<\/a> searching for a path back into deeply <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republicans\/\">Republican<\/a> states are increasingly embracing a strategy that would have once been politically unthinkable: quietly sidelining their own nominees in favor of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/independent\/\">independent<\/a> candidates they believe have a better shot at winning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From Nebraska to Alaska to Montana, Democratic operatives and aligned groups are showing growing openness to candidates who avoid the Democratic label altogether, reflecting mounting concern inside the party that the brand itself has become toxic in some conservative states.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Nebraska, Democratic officials have effectively aligned themselves with independent Dan Osborn rather than fully consolidating behind Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank, who has signaled she could eventually leave the race. Similar conversations are unfolding around independent Senate candidate Seth Bodnar in Montana and House candidate Bill Hill in Alaska.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The emerging playbook reflects a growing belief among some Democrats that, in states where Republicans dominate federal races, candidates may fare better running adjacent to the party rather than directly under its banner. But the strategy has exposed deep disagreements inside Democratic circles over whether the party should adapt to its brand problems in red states or work to repair them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s the stupidest thing I\u2019ve ever heard,\u201d Democratic strategist Michael Ceraso said of efforts by party-aligned groups to quietly boost independents while distancing themselves publicly from the Democratic label.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf the human being themselves wants to not be associated with the Democratic Party, and they want to run as an independent, then run as an independent,\u201d Ceraso said. \u201cBut please, to the Democratic Party, stop trying to be cute about it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ceraso argued Democrats are overthinking the problem and focusing too heavily on branding rather than candidate quality and local engagement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cJust tell donors you\u2019re going to go into these communities to find the best candidates to run, and then go run them,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"h-what-the-prediction-markets-say\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the prediction markets say<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a real-time gauge of political sentiment. Unlike traditional polling, they aggregate real-money bets on political outcomes, often capturing shifts in sentiment quicker than surveys.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At this stage in the 2026 cycle, Kalshi gives Democrats an <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/controlh\/house-winner\/controlh-2026\">79% chance<\/a> of retaking the House, while Republicans have a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/controls\/senate-winner\/controls-2026\">58% chance<\/a> of keeping control of the Senate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, Polymarket is slightly more bullish on Democrats, giving the party an <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026\">82% chance<\/a> of retaking the House and a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026\">54% chance<\/a> of winning the Senate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is part of *Midterm Countdown*, a monthly Washington Examiner series on the 2026 cycle. Scroll for the latest prediction market odds<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4314,"featured_media":2610514,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1600x900-MC1-e1777683864618.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[5152,7408,80816],"class_list":["post-2610513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-education","tag-midterms","tag-student-life"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1600x900-MC1-e1777683864618.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4314"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2610513"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610513\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2610517,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610513\/revisions\/2610517"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2610514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2610513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2610513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2610513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}