{"id":2607489,"date":"2026-05-27T15:56:02","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T19:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/cornyns-blowout-loss-exposes-polling-miss-in-texas-primary\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T15:57:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T19:57:03","slug":"cornyns-blowout-loss-exposes-polling-miss-in-texas-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/cornyns-blowout-loss-exposes-polling-miss-in-texas-primary\/","title":{"rendered":"Cornyn\u2019s blowout loss exposes polling miss in Texas primary"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcornyns-blowout-loss-exposes-polling-miss-in-texas-primary%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2607489&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Sen. John cornyn\u2019s loss in Texas\u2019s Senate GOP runoff showed that pre-election polls didn\u2019t fully reflect the race\u2019s reality: he was defeated by more than 27 points and trailed Attorney General Ken Paxton, 36.2% to 63.8%, according to the Associated Press.  <\/p>\n<p>An average of three polls compiled by 270 To Win had predicted Cornyn would lose by about 8 points. Among six May polls compiled by the New York Times, only one projected a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gamestop-shares-jump-9-investment-firm-closes-main-fund-after-heavy-losses\/\" title=\"GameStop Shares Jump 9%, Investment Firm Closes Main Fund After Heavy ...es\">double-digit loss<\/a>, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >closest pre-election survey<\/a> (Quantus Insights) had Paxton winning by just over 9 points.  <\/p>\n<p>The article suggests Paxton\u2019s stronger-than-expected performance may have been driven by a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, along with a major drop in turnout for Cornyn compared with the March primary. In March, Cornyn won more votes than Paxton (910,382 to 878,564), but in the runoff Paxton captured 885,949 ballots while Cornyn received 501,725.  <\/p>\n<p>Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the general election,with forecasts calling the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/three-senate-contests-shaping-up-to-be-tougher-than-expected\/\" title=\"Three ...ate races becoming more challenging than anticipated\">race highly competitive<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sen. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/john-cornyn\/\">John Cornyn\u2019s<\/a> (R-TX) performance in the Texas Senate GOP primary election on Tuesday indicated <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\/\">polling<\/a> for one of the country\u2019s most closely watched races failed to sufficiently capture the political dynamic.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cornyn lost the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/house-ethics-committee-launches-investigation-into-tony-gonzales\/\" title=\"House Ethics Committee launches investigation into Tony Gonzales\">runoff primary election<\/a> by a more-than 27-point margin, as he trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 36.2% to 63.8%, according to the <em>Associated Press<\/em>.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4583204\/spencer-pratt-may-be-answer-joe-concha\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Spencer Pratt may be the answer: Joe Concha<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4577833\/rising-gas-prices-gop-poll\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Rising gas prices are causing voters to reconsider voting for GOP: Poll<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4582813\/florida-judge-upholds-gop-congressional-map\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Florida judge strikes down challenge to new GOP congressional map<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though polls leading up to the election showed Cornyn trailing, most failed to accurately predict the sweeping scale of the incumbent\u2019s loss.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An average of three polls compiled by <em>270 To Win<\/em> predicted <span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">that Cornyn <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/2026-senate-polls\/texas\">would lose<\/a> the nomination by roughly an <\/span>8-point margin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of the six polls released in May <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/polls\/texas-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html\">compiled by<\/a> the<em> New York Times<\/em>, only one handed Cornyn a double-digit loss. The last poll conducted before the election, a Quantus Insights survey, predicted Paxton would win, but by just over 9 points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Several factors could have led to Paxton\u2019s higher-than-expected performance, including a last-minute endorsement from President Donald Trump and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/irans-president-refuses-to-meet-with-biden-amid-nuclear-deal-talks\/\" title=\"Iran\u2019s president refuses to meet with Biden amid nuclear deal talks\">low voter turnout<\/a> for Cornyn.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPresident Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in politics,\u201d Paxton said at his victory party. \u201cWhen everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn\u2019t listen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, turnout for Cornyn in Tuesday\u2019s runoff was far lower than the initial March primary, marking a distinct downturn in fortunes for the incumbent. Paxton took the gains from Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) being eliminated in the March election, while Cornyn appeared to take a hit from over 779,000 fewer votes being cast on Tuesday than in March.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative; width: 100%; height: 0px; padding: 66.7% 0px 0px; overflow: hidden; will-change: transform;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/7ca6aaf7-803d-4809-bba0-f4750e36d137?src=embed&#038;embed_type=responsive_iframe\" title=\"texas runoff\" allowfullscreen allow=\"fullscreen\" style=\"position: absolute; width: 100%; height: 100%; top: 0px; left: 0px; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentcolor; border-image: initial; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In March, Cornyn<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/goelect.txelections.civixapps.com\/ivis-enr-ui\/races\"> received<\/a> 910,382 votes, Paxton garnered 878,564, and Hunt received 293,250. In all, 2,166,910 votes were counted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4575122\/senate-gop-fumes-trump-endorses-ken-paxton-texas\/\"><strong>SENATE GOP FUMES AFTER TRUMP SNUBS CORNYN WITH KEN PAXTON ENDORSEMENT<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Tuesday, Paxton <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/goelect.txelections.civixapps.com\/ivis-enr-ui\/races\">captured<\/a> 885,949 ballots, and Cornyn received 501,725 votes. In all, 1,387,674 ballots were counted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Paxton will face off against <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/texas\/\">Texas<\/a> state Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/james-talarico\/\">James Talarico<\/a> in the general election. Polls promise the race will be fiercely competitive, as Talarico vies to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in three decades. In the first two hours following Paxton\u2019s victory over Cornyn on Tuesday, Talarico <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4583186\/james-talarico-records-600000-haul-hours-after-ken-paxton-texas-primary-win\/\">hauled in $600,000<\/a>, the strongest two hours of fundraising of his entire campaign.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cornyn\u2019s GOP primary loss showed polls missed the race\u2019s true politics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3142,"featured_media":2607490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP26146448513183.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[79837,6203,80350,32090,37104],"class_list":["post-2607489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2024-primary","tag-gop","tag-polling-error","tag-ted-cruz","tag-texas-politics"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP26146448513183.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2607489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3142"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2607489"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2607489\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2607493,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2607489\/revisions\/2607493"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2607490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2607489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2607489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2607489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}