{"id":2602200,"date":"2026-05-13T12:42:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T16:42:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/coopers-polling-lead-in-north-carolina-senate-race-is-not-as-big-as-he-thinks\/"},"modified":"2026-05-13T12:44:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T16:44:59","slug":"coopers-polling-lead-in-north-carolina-senate-race-is-not-as-big-as-he-thinks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/coopers-polling-lead-in-north-carolina-senate-race-is-not-as-big-as-he-thinks\/","title":{"rendered":"Cooper&#8217;s polling lead in North Carolina Senate race is not as big as he thinks"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcoopers-polling-lead-in-north-carolina-senate-race-is-not-as-big-as-he-thinks%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2602200&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Wednesday\u2019s **Washington Secrets** focuses on polling and political signals ahead of teh Senate race in **North Carolina**. While most polls show Democrat **Roy Cooper** leading, analysis from **J.L. Partners** argues the race is **closer than it appears** once <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/new-poll-shows-drive-to-recall-gov-newsom-gained-traction-in-past-2-weeks\/\" title=\"New ... Shows Drive To Recall Gov. Newsom Gained Traction In Past 2 Weeks\">undecided voters<\/a> are accounted for-using a model that reallocates undecideds based on patterns from past behavior. The firm\u2019s approach, which previously forecasted a Republican Senate majority in 2024, suggests **Republican Michael Whatley** could be **nearly tied or even ahead** within typical margins of error, implying a longer, more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/l-a-s-new-controversial-d-a-hires-prosecutor-who-suggested-cops-are-trained-to-kill-us\/\" title=\"L.A.\u2019s New Controversial D.A. Hires Prosecutor Who Suggested Cops Are \u2018Trained To Kill Us\u2019\">contentious campaign<\/a> might potentially be coming.<\/p>\n<p>The newsletter also interprets a playful \u201ccricket\u201d term (\u201c**dot ball**\u201d) that appeared in an earlier Playbook post,and includes an exchange involving **Elon Musk** on X after he joined a large tech-and-business delegation traveling to **Beijing**. It closes with \u201cQuote of the day\u201d commentary and <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >lunchtime reading links<\/a>, including coverage of FDA leadership turnover involving **Marty Makary** and geopolitical tensions tied to **Eurovision**.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p><strong><em>Welcome to Wednesday\u2019s edition of <\/em>Washington Secrets<em>, which comes to you refreshed and reinvigorated after a break. Today, we run the rule over polling from North Carolina, with surprising results in a Senate race that might not be as clear-cut as you thought. Plus, we take a look at some of the mysterious language in a so-called rival newsletter!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/north-carolina\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/north-carolina\/\">North Carolina<\/a> is a must-win state for Democrats as they seek to flip the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/section\/news\/senate\/\" type=\"category\" id=\"84\">Senate<\/a>. Poll after poll gives their candidate, former Gov. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/roy-cooper\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/roy-cooper\/\">Roy Cooper<\/a>, a decisive lead.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4566105\/roy-cooper-poll-lead-north-carolina-senate\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Roy Cooper\u2019s polling lead in North Carolina Senate race is not as big as he thinks<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/4564541\/nicholas-kristof-grotesque-journalistic-malpractice\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Nick Kristof\u2019s grotesque journalistic malpractice<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/daily-memo\/4564382\/democratic-fantasy-world-trump-assassination-attempts-staged\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>A Democratic fantasy world<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>But a new analysis by polling firm J.L. Partners suggests the race is too close to call if undecided voters are taken into account. The results showed that Republican candidate Michael Whatley is running neck and neck with Cooper, within the margin of error of one recent poll, and actually ahead in another, than most pollsters currently believe.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>With almost six months until polling day and hundreds of millions of dollars more to be spent, it suggests a longer and more bitter fight to come in North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p>J.L. Partners used a modelling technique that correctly predicted a 53-47 Republican Senate majority in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>While most pollsters simply disregard undecided voters, the J.L. Partners technique allocates them to one candidate or the other based on other responses in the survey, such as whether they are registered with one party or another and who they voted for in previous elections.<\/p>\n<p>Co-founder James Johnson said that in 2024, the analysis showed that undecided Senate voters were more likely to be Trump voters.<\/p>\n<p>That phenomenon appears to be repeating itself, he said.<\/p>\n<p>In some races, as much as 40% of the undecideds voted for Trump last time, about 10 points ahead of those who voted for Kamala Harris, and might be expected to come back into the GOP fold.<\/p>\n<p>This time around, the effect was most pronounced in North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p>In a poll for the <em>Carolina Journal<\/em>, 45% of uncertain voters in the Senate race voted for Trump in 2024. Only 32% had voted for Harris.<\/p>\n<p>The J.L. Partners reallocation model then reduces Cooper\u2019s lead from 8 points to within the 4-point margin of error.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a long way to go, and the picture for Republicans this November is tough,\u201d Johnson said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut just as in 2024, there\u2019s a hidden dynamic to this election. And it means we shouldn\u2019t rule out some Republicans from their Senate races \u2014 and our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-best-interests-of-children-have-often-come-dead-last-watch-mcconnell-tear-into-teachers-unions\/\" title=\"\u2018The Best Interests Of Children Have Often Come Dead Last\u2019: Watch McConnell Tear Into Teachers\u2019 Unions\">research suggests<\/a> that applies most to Michael Whatley in North Carolina.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>His firm was also the most accurate in predicting the 2024 presidential election. Again, his models tended to do a better job of identifying hidden Republican votes.<\/p>\n<p>Applying the reallocation method to a Public Policy Polling survey from March in North Carolina turns a 3-point Cooper lead into a deficit.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, Republicans may face an uphill struggle to hang on to the seat held by Thom Tillis, who decided not to seek a third term.<\/p>\n<p>With few flip opportunities around the country, Democrats have no path to take the Senate if they do not win in North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p>It pits Cooper, a two-term governor with a big-fundraising network and one of the rare Democrats who is popular in the South, against Whatley, a close ally of Trump and one of the masterminds behind the president\u2019s 2024 win.<\/p>\n<p>The result is a frantic, bad-tempered battle in one of the nation\u2019s closest swing states.<\/p>\n<p>Some forecasts suggest it could become the first billion-dollar Senate race in history.<\/p>\n<p>Cooper has the lead in money. He has massively outraised Whatley so far, bringing in <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4531658\/senate-democrat-raise-massive-campaign-fund\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4531658\/senate-democrat-raise-massive-campaign-fund\/\">$13.8 million in the first quarter of this year<\/a>, compared with Whatley\u2019s $5 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings.<\/p>\n<p>Whatley campaign spokesman DJ Griffin said the J.L. Partners analysis reflected what he was seeing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis polling confirms what we\u2019re seeing across North Carolina: support for Michael Whatley is surging as voters rally behind a proven conservative fighter.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNorth Carolinians want lower taxes, safer communities, and a senator who will defend their values \u2014 not Roy Cooper, whose record includes releasing 3,500 felons early, vetoing tax cuts, and supporting radical policies like boys in girls\u2019 sports.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The North Carolina Democratic party declined to comment. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-playbook-interpreter\">The Playbook interpreter<\/h2>\n<p>Readers of yesterday\u2019s Playbook newsletter may have been mystified by a subheading that read, \u201cdot ball,\u201d on a piece about Nebraska\u2019s 2nd Congressional District, often identified as the \u201cblue dot\u201d on electoral maps.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s an inside-baseball kind of story about changing voting methods. But the reference to a \u201cdot ball\u201d is a cricket term. It denotes a ball bowled that results in no score for the batting team and no out for the bowling team. It is so called because scorers record it with a dot.<\/p>\n<p>It is, of course, not the only Britishism to have featured in recent months. If anyone has decoded \u201cMullah corner\u201d from March 12, about the Iranian regime, then do let me know. <em>Secrets <\/em>had a chuckle at that one but suspects most readers in the U.S. would have been none the wiser.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-quote-of-the-day\">Quote of the day<\/h2>\n<p>Elon Musk delivered quite the flex Wednesday morning as he flew to Beijing as part of Trump\u2019s delegation.<\/p>\n<p>Zerohedge, the popular financial blog, posted on X that the high-powered delegation of chief executives, which included Tim Cook of Apple, Jensen Huang of Nvidia, Larry Fink of BlackRock, Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone Group, Kelly Ortman of Boeing, et al, amounted to about $20 trillion worth of CEOs on Air Force One, the Tesla founder shot back with <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/elonmusk\/status\/2054480994015818084\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/x.com\/elonmusk\/status\/2054480994015818084\">a one-line post<\/a>, underlining his place in the billionaire firmament: \u201cJust Jensen and I are on AF1.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-lunchtime-reading\">Lunchtime reading<\/h2>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/policy\/inside-marty-makarys-downfall-at-the-fda-6ca97054?st=dPgMPU&#038;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/politics\/policy\/inside-marty-makarys-downfall-at-the-fda-6ca97054?st=dPgMPU&#038;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\"><strong>Inside Marty Makary\u2019s downfall at the FDA<\/strong><\/a>: \u201cSenior leaders in the White House increasingly concluded Makary was out of step with the president\u2019s priorities on vaping and other policy issues, people familiar with the matter said.\u201d Pharmaceutical industry insiders were also coming to the White House with complaints.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/world\/europe\/eurovision-song-contest-israel-boycott-voting-changes-vienna-rcna343872\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/world\/europe\/eurovision-song-contest-israel-boycott-voting-changes-vienna-rcna343872\"><strong>From boycotts to Boy George, Eurovision is back<\/strong><\/a>: The camp European song contest is held this weekend. Behind the songs, there are always geopolitical tensions. This time, they threaten to overshadow the whole thing.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>You are reading <\/em>Washington Secrets<em>, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at secrets @ washington examiner DOTCOM with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.<\/em> <em>If a friend sent you this and you\u2019d like to sign up, <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/click1.trk-washingtonexaminer.com\/xprvgynrhhctscghtpnrptnqlrtypjmjlkrlcnpvhgpdcr_jtjrvfbrrsmwbqmnsbmvsv.html?a=Washington+Secrets+Lara+Trump&#038;b=01%2F21%2F2026&#038;c=WEX_Washington+Secrets&#038;d=25812206&#038;e=da31c45955c9411a6c40ecd0e967fa8def1f0fc08362faaa0dee09386ff5c41b\"><em>click here<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to Wednesday\u2019s Washington Secrets-NC Senate polling surprises and puzzling \u201crival newsletter\u201d language<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4136,"featured_media":2602201,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP26076713880529.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[35835,6118,32371,79613,15698],"class_list":["post-2602200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-campaign-strategy","tag-cooper","tag-election-analysis","tag-north-carolina-senate-race","tag-polling"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP26076713880529.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2602200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4136"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2602200"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2602200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2602204,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2602200\/revisions\/2602204"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2602201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2602200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2602200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2602200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}