{"id":2601540,"date":"2026-05-12T07:24:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T11:24:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-build-the-wall-against-a-blue-wave\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T07:26:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T11:26:48","slug":"republicans-build-the-wall-against-a-blue-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-build-the-wall-against-a-blue-wave\/","title":{"rendered":"Republicans build the wall against a blue wave"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Frepublicans-build-the-wall-against-a-blue-wave%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2601540&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>democrats and Republicans are already battling over congressional district maps in states they control ahead of next year\u2019s battle for congressional majorities.The article argues that midterm \u201cwave\u201d outcomes usually require both a sharp national swing against the party in power and that party\u2019s majority being exposed in competitive districts-but Republicans may be more insulated this time becuase many of their seats fall in districts Trump won by large margins.<\/p>\n<p>It notes that Republicans are defending far fewer vulnerable seats than in earlier wave-like elections (such as 2018) and cites analyses suggesting a larger share of today\u2019s GOP House seats are in relatively safe territory due to voting patterns and prior redistricting. While the national political surroundings has deteriorated for Republicans since 2024-reflected in polling for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/realclearpolitics-republicans-lead-generic-ballot-for-first-time-since-2014\/\" title=\"RealClearPolitics: ... Lead Generic Ballot for First Time Since 2014\">generic congressional vote<\/a> and trump\u2019s approval-the piece emphasizes that safe seats could limit how many losses the GOP faces.<\/p>\n<p>Still, both parties see redistricting as a strategic tool, and <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >long-term voter sorting<\/a> and repeated wave cycles have reduced the number of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-a-blue-wave-even-possible-a-way-too-early-look-at-the-midterms-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Is a ... even possible? A way too early look at the midterms - Washington Examiner\">true swing districts<\/a>.Some analysts question whether waves are even possible anymore, but the article lays out a counterpoint: if the national climate worsens enough for Democrats, it could expand competitiveness and put GOP control of the house-and possibly the Senate-at risk. It concludes that even if the midterm result doesn\u2019t settle everything, the outcome could substantially change the map-making fights that will continue beyond November, including those Republicans expect to benefit from after the 2030 census.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p>Before they fight for <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-elections\/\">next year\u2019s congressional majorities<\/a>, Democrats and Republicans are duking it out over congressional maps in the states they control throughout the country, as seen most recently in <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/supreme-court\/4563668\/virginia-democrats-ask-supreme-court-to-reinstate-nullified-redistricting-amendment\/\">Virginia\u2019s emotional roller coaster<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Democrats are hoping for a blue wave, while Republicans are looking to just retain control of the House and the Senate.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4563824\/nebraska-democrats-pick-nominee-fight-blue-dot\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Nebraska Democrats to pick nominee in fight for \u2018Blue Dot\u2019<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4562955\/thomas-massie-strikes-positive-tone-final-primary-campaign-ad\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Thomas Massie strikes positive tone in final primary campaign ad<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4562122\/virginia-democrats-spelling-mistakes-redistricting-documents\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Virginia Democrats roasted over spelling mistakes in redistricting documents<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>For Republicans, it\u2019s \u201cbuild the wall\u201d 2.0 and make the Democrats pay for it.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>That\u2019s why the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/midterm-elections\/\">midterm elections<\/a> have become about the maps. A wave election usually requires two things: a sharp national turn against the party holding the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/white-house\/\">White House<\/a> and that party\u2019s majority being disproportionately exposed in competitive districts or states.<\/p>\n<p>If both of those things happen at the same time, the party in power is likely to get wiped out in the midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p>The national environment has certainly deteriorated for Republicans since they won the trifecta \u2014\u00a0control of the White House, Senate, and House \u2014 in the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\/\">2024 elections<\/a>. Democrats are favored in the generic congressional ballot by 5.9 points, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/state-of-the-union\/generic-congressional-vote\">according to<\/a> the <em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>polling average. President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s job approval rating is <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/approval\/donald-trump\/approval-rating\">down to 40.5%<\/a>, and it\u2019s even lower on specific issues such as the economy, inflation, and Iran. <\/p>\n<p>But how exposed are Republicans? One advantage they still have relative to past majorities that were swept away in wave elections is the number of safe seats.<\/p>\n<p>When Democrats won the House during Trump\u2019s first midterm election in 2018, widely held to be the last <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-and-democrats-compete-in-unpopularity-contest-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Trump and ... compete in unpopularity contest - Washington Examiner\">true wave election<\/a>, Republicans represented more than two dozen districts Hillary Clinton had carried in the 2016 presidential election. Republicans managed to hold on to just three of them in 2018, accounting for half of the Democrats\u2019 gains in that year\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<p>This time around, Republicans will only be defending three seats in districts won by former Vice President Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA bigger share of the current House majority is politically insulated. Fully 61% of Republican seats (134 of 220) are from districts Trump carried by at least 20 points,\u201d elections analyst Steve Kornacki <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2026-election\/steve-kornacki-redistricting-change-fight-house-majority-rcna220354?cid=eml_nbcp_%7Bdate%28%E2%80%98yyyyMMdd%E2%80%99%29%7D\">observed<\/a> of last year\u2019s numbers, before the redistricting wars began in earnest. \u201cIn 2018, fewer than half of the GOP\u2019s seats were in this category. And more than 80% of GOP seats now are from districts Trump won by at least 12.5 points, compared to 66% in \u201918.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Democrats suffered even worse losses than the Trump-era GOP in the 1994 midterm elections under then-President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/bill-clinton\/\">Bill Clinton<\/a> and in 2010 under then-President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/barack-obama\/\">Barack Obama<\/a>. At the time, Democrats still held a high number of seats in conservative districts. The southern party realignment was not yet complete in the early 1990s, and the Democrats\u2019 congressional majorities in Obama\u2019s first term were unsustainably large.<\/p>\n<p>Once Democrats lost those seats in that pair of Republican wave elections, most of them remained safely GOP afterward. Something similar happened to GOP-held seats lost in the Democratic wave years of 2006 and 2018. <\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s worth noting that this year\u2019s House GOP majority is historically small, so Democrats won\u2019t need to flip many seats to capture the lower chamber of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/congress\/\">Congress<\/a>. In 2022, the red wave never fully materialized, but Republicans still won enough House seats to take control.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans also still hold nearly 20 seats in districts Trump won by less than 7.5 points. They lost 15 out of 23 such districts in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans are hoping this year\u2019s redistricting fights and the Supreme Court\u2019s <em>Louisiana v. Callais <\/em>decision will bolster the safety of their narrow majority while also creating new pickup opportunities. <\/p>\n<p>Both parties are looking to game the congressional maps for their partisan advantage. A combination of gerrymandering, voters sorting into states and congressional districts by partisan allegiances, and multiple wave elections benefiting both parties over the last 32 years has steadily reduced the number of true swing seats.<\/p>\n<p>Some political analysts question whether a real wave election is even possible anymore.<\/p>\n<p>But it is also possible that the national environment could deteriorate enough for the GOP to grow the universe of competitive seats, putting the majority beyond the reach of Republican redistricting efforts.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/4556389\/gop-democrats-gerrymander-targets-supreme-court-ruling\/\"><strong>RED OR BLUE? GOP AND DEMOCRATS EYE NEXT GERRYMANDER TARGETS AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Under that scenario, Democrats could imperil not just GOP control of the House but also the Senate. Democrats are already pushing to contest Senate seats in Republican states like Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, in addition to the somewhat swingier North Carolina. <\/p>\n<p>The redistricting wars wouldn\u2019t end with a Democratic win in November, since Republicans believe they will gain seats in the future from the 2030 census. But the midterm elections could alter the terrain on which those wars are fought.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Before next year\u2019s congressional races, both parties fight over maps in their states, hoping for a blue wave or to keep control of the House and Senate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2601543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AP26118674068773.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[32408,37333,6571,32171,3756],"class_list":["post-2601540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-blue-wave","tag-border-wall","tag-elections","tag-political-commentary","tag-republicans"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AP26118674068773.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2601540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2601540"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2601540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2601545,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2601540\/revisions\/2601545"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2601543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2601540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2601540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2601540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}