{"id":2600861,"date":"2026-05-10T07:04:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T11:04:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-great-power-competition-in-the-central-sahel-helped-al-qaeda\/"},"modified":"2026-05-10T07:08:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T11:08:27","slug":"how-great-power-competition-in-the-central-sahel-helped-al-qaeda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/how-great-power-competition-in-the-central-sahel-helped-al-qaeda\/","title":{"rendered":"How great power competition in the Central Sahel helped al Qaeda"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fhow-great-power-competition-in-the-central-sahel-helped-al-qaeda%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2600861&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A power struggle for influence among France, Russia, and the United States in the central Sahel has worsened conditions in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, largely as an al Qaeda affiliate-Jama\u2019at Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)-has exploited the resulting security vacuum.<\/p>\n<p>After France intervened in Mali in 2013 and later lost ground against an expanding jihadist insurgency, a series of coups in all three countries replaced pro-French policies with close ties to Russia. The juntas framed this shift as anti-colonial,but it coincided with rapid deterioration: central governments remained weak,especially in rural and peripheral areas where they struggle to exert control and where ethnic grievances (notably among Tuaregs in northern Mali) fueled instability.<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s assistance has been less effective than France\u2019s earlier presence. French and Western forces were able to deploy larger capabilities, while Russia\u2019s approach-initially via Wagner mercenaries and later through the \u201cAfrica Korps\u201d (more bureaucratic and cautious)-has provided fewer personnel and a different operating style. Russia\u2019s counterinsurgency model also reportedly emphasizes centralized control in cities, which does not fit the Sahel\u2019s largely rural reality, leaving villagers vulnerable and increasing resentment toward junta-aligned forces and militias.<\/p>\n<p>That environment has allowed JNIM to grow and entrench itself, including through control or strong influence over large areas and disruptive tactics like transport ambushes and a fuel blockade of Bamako that triggered shortages and chaos. During JNIM\u2019s coordinated April 25 assault across Mali, the group leveraged its rural dominance to strike widely and temporarily secure effective control in the north-though analysts argue it is unlikely to directly seize power across the south due to limited legitimacy and fighting capacity.<\/p>\n<p>The article also suggests the crisis could prompt greater U.S. involvement, noting that Sahel governments in Bamako are primarily anti-French rather than anti-U.S., and that U.S. policy has emphasized regional cooperation against terrorist threats.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p>A fight for influence between <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/france\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"387\">France<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/russia\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"80\">Russia<\/a>, and the United States in the central Sahel has fomented disaster in the region, after an <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/al-qaeda\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"1194\">al Qaeda<\/a> affiliate filled the vacuum opened by the competition.<\/p>\n<p>As a former colony of the French Empire, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have traditionally fallen in France\u2019s orbit. Paris intervened in Mali in 2013 when a jihadist insurgency threatened to spin out of control, and led a largely Western force in fighting jihadist rebels. After initial successes, the jihadist insurgency grew throughout the central Sahel in the mid-to-late 2010s. After a series of coups by officers dissatisfied with lagging counterterrorism efforts, juntas in the three countries booted France altogether, establishing close ties with Russia instead.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/4562051\/putin-thinks-war-coming-to-end-ceasefire-into-effect\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Putin thinks Ukraine war \u2018coming to an end\u2019 as three-day ceasefire goes into effect<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/4561820\/spain-readies-evacuations-hantavirus-hit-cruise-ship-canary-islands\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Spain readies for evacuations as a <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >hantavirus-hit cruise ship heads<\/a> for the Canary Islands<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/4561797\/hungary-peter-magyar-sworn-in-prime-minister-ending-viktor-orban-rule\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Hungary\u2019s Peter Magyar is set to be sworn in as prime minister, ending Viktor Orban\u2019s 16-year rule<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>The switch in alliances has coincided with the rapid deterioration of the security situation in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Jama\u2019at Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimin, al Qaeda\u2019s affiliate in the Sahel, has emerged as one of the most powerful terrorist groups on Earth amid this vacuum, positioning itself in recent weeks as an existential threat to the government of Mali itself.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Liam Karr, an analyst for the American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Critical Threats Project, and research Fellow and Middle East expert Zineb Riboua, at the Center for Peace and Security in the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/middle-east\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"102\">Middle East<\/a>, Hudson Institute, spoke to the Washington Examiner about how this change in alliances has led to disaster in the region, now serving as the global center for jihadist violence.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-state-weakness\">State weakness<\/h2>\n<p>The central Sahel is defined by the continent-spanning arid belt that passes through Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Mali and Niger ostensibly rule over large parts of the southern Sahara desert, but state weakness means the actual reach of the central government is limited.<\/p>\n<p>As Liam Karr, an analyst for the American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Critical Threats Project, explained, these geographical factors have resulted in unusually weak central governments.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you look at Mali in particular, northern Mali is the size of <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/texas\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"253\">Texas<\/a>. Mali itself is about double the size of Texas. And just if you look at the size of these states, the militaries, the GDP, at their disposal \u2026 It\u2019s very hard for them to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/22-us-troops-injured-in-syria-helicopter-incident\/\" title=\"22 US soldiers hurt in Syria chopper mishap.\">exert full control<\/a> over this,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The peripheral areas, while much more sparsely populated than the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/israel-offers-2-month-ceasefire-in-exchange-for-the-release-of-all-hostages\/\" title=\"Israel proposes 2...month ceasefire for hostage release\">main population centers<\/a>, are dominated by ethnic groups that feel neglected by the central government, most notably the Tuaregs in northern Mali. The war in the Sahel began in January 2012 as a rebellion from Tuareg mercenaries returning from fighting in Libya.<\/p>\n<p>The inability of the central governments to secure hold over the periphery has made them reliant on foreign patrons, a title historically held by France. Factions within the military have helped fan the flames of anti-French sentiment, which has become the junta\u2019s primary ideological motivation, according to research Fellow and Middle East expert Zineb Riboua, at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Hudson Institute.<\/p>\n<p>The switch from French to Russian patronage came after coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, followed by two in Burkina Faso in 2022, then one in Niger in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>The new junta governments gained much of their legitimacy through their opposition to an increasingly unpopular France and perceived neo-colonialism. The juntas can broadly be characterized as pan-Africanist, according to Riboua, with much of their propaganda being centered on grievances against France.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-russian-model\">The Russian model<\/h2>\n<p>Russia was pitched as an ally in this anti-colonial struggle. Moscow was more appealing due to its transactional approach, and the juntas evidently thought they could rely on Russian troops for counterterrorism operations while not having to worry about meddling in internal affairs. But while Russian troops have seen some success, Moscow was never positioned to be able to contribute anywhere near as many troops and resources as France and other Western forces.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese juntas obviously kicked out French troops, U.S. troops in the case of Niger, also UN troops in the case of Mali, and replaced them with a handful of Russian advisers,\u201d Karr said. \u201cThat tradeoff just has not worked.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s counterinsurgency tactics, effective when used with the backing of the full Russian military, also haven\u2019t meshed well with the central Sahel states.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRussia has enabled this kind of brutal counterinsurgency doctrine that Russia also has. We\u2019ve seen it used in places like Chechnya, but it doesn\u2019t translate well to these really big countries where the militaries are not as large, and they can\u2019t use that overwhelming force like Russia did in Chechnya,\u201d Karr continued.<\/p>\n<p>The first Russian troops sent to the Sahel were Wagner mercenaries, which followed an effective model. Its troops, concentrated in Mali, were more willing to \u201cget their hands dirty,\u201d Karr explained, aggressively pursuing jihadists in the barren north where western troops weren\u2019t willing to go.<\/p>\n<p>The absorption of Wagner into the Russian Ministry of Defense has completely changed their posture, rebranded as the Africa Korps. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Russian Ministry of Defense is very <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/bureaucracy\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"1984\">bureaucratic<\/a>, more casualty averse, less active,\u201d Karr explained. \u201cI guess you could say what has happened is that Russian forces have shifted towards becoming a less effective version of Western partner forces.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Africa Korps is far less willing to send out expeditions to northern Mali and now expects payment from the junta governments upfront rather than operating in exchange for access to mineral resources. This model is much less appealing to the impoverished governments, which sometimes struggle to pay their own troops.<\/p>\n<p>The political model encouraged by Russia also worsened the juntas\u2019 situations, especially Mali\u2019s, Riboua explained.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Russians concentrated power and pushed towards much more centralization in the cities and in the capital, leaving the countryside. But the countryside is where everything plays out,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>As with the counterinsurgency strategy, the approach works in urbanized Russia, but doesn\u2019t translate well into the mostly rural Sahel. Karr concurred, saying the juntas are \u201cvery popular\u201d in the capitals, major cities, and urban economic centers of power, more so than the democratic governments they toppled. In rural areas, however, their reputation is radioactive due to the brutal actions of government troops and allied militias.<\/p>\n<p>The government\u2019s unpopularity in the rural areas and propensity for violence against villagers has opened the door for JNIM to cast itself as a more effective protector. In Burkina Faso alone, JNIM is believed to effectively control roughly 40% of the country\u2019s territory. Even in areas not under its direct control, the widespread sympathy in rural areas allows JNIM to set up ambushes along the main roads and dominate the main supply routes into the capitals, especially in Mali.<\/p>\n<p>Its stranglehold over the country became evident last year when the group declared a fuel blockade of Mali\u2019s capital, Bamako. The strategy was highly effective, causing power rationing in the capital and fomenting civil chaos.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-could-al-qaeda-take-control-of-the-sahel\">Could al Qaeda take control of the Sahel?<\/h2>\n<p>In its April 25 surprise assault across Mali, JNIM took advantage of its rural dominance to attack all across the country at once. The government and its Russian allies were able to rally, but not before ceding effective control over the north.<\/p>\n<p>Karr pushed back against the more maximalist predictions made in the first few hours of the assault, claiming that JNIM could take over the country.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere needs to be a clear distinction made between toppling the government and JNIM taking over, because I think that the government is certainly very shaky, and JNIM could help topple the government,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019ve taken over key parts of northern Mali, which this junta has kind of staked its legitimacy to \u2026 by proclaiming these symbolic victories in northern Mali.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Karr repeatedly stressed the politically savvy nature of JNIM, which has chosen patience and alliance-building over suicidal assaults on government strongholds in the south. Despite its recent victories, and though it\u2019s one of the most powerful <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/terrorism\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"103\">terrorist groups<\/a> in the world, it is still in no place to seize power directly.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think that is very, very, very not likely, just because JNIM doesn\u2019t have the legitimacy to do that, especially in southern Mali, and they don\u2019t have the capacity to do that either, given that if you don\u2019t have the legitimacy you need to rule by force, they don\u2019t have nearly the fighters needed to kind of rule with some kind of iron fist,\u201d Karr said.<\/p>\n<p>Riboua painted a slightly more dire picture of the juntas, arguing that the combination of ethnic uprisings and JNIM\u2019s strategic approach has turned the threat to the three countries existential. The trio formed their own security alliance to better combat the jihadist insurgency, but these troops were nowhere to be found in combating JNIM\u2019s offensive last month.<\/p>\n<p>Riboua has eyed a silver lining, believing the chaos beckons for the U.S. to become more involved in the region. She stressed that the anti-French sentiment in the Sahel doesn\u2019t translate into anti-U.S. sentiment.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/3434652\/wagner-group-mali-heavy-losses-russia-africa-corps\/\" type=\"post\" id=\"3434652\">WAGNER GROUP LEAVING MALI AFTER HEAVY LOSSES BUT RUSSIA\u2019S AFRICA CORPS TO REMAIN<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe government of Bamako is primarily anti-French. They don\u2019t mind actually engaging with the United States,\u201d Riboua said, adding that the two held \u201cvery good\u201d talks last year. <\/p>\n<p>When reached for comment, the Department of State said the U.S. was \u201ccommitted to promoting regional ownership and cooperation against terrorist threats\u201d in the Sahel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A fight for influence among France, Russia, and the U.S. in the Sahel has fueled disaster, after an al Qaeda affiliate exploited the power vacuum<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2653,"featured_media":2600862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP25357449480276.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[17566,79406,79407,71396,49863],"class_list":["post-2600861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-al-qaeda","tag-central-sahel","tag-counterterrorism-strategy","tag-great-power-competition-2","tag-violent-extremism"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP25357449480276.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2600861"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600861\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2600865,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600861\/revisions\/2600865"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2600862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2600861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2600861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2600861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}