{"id":2600546,"date":"2026-05-08T19:10:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T23:10:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/estimated-iranian-economic-damage-from-war-approaches-150-billion\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T19:13:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T23:13:46","slug":"estimated-iranian-economic-damage-from-war-approaches-150-billion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/estimated-iranian-economic-damage-from-war-approaches-150-billion\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimated Iranian economic damage from war approaches $150 billion"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Festimated-iranian-economic-damage-from-war-approaches-150-billion%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2600546&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>An estimate puts Iran\u2019s explicit economic damage from the war and blockade at about $144 billion, though a Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) report argues the true cost is highly likely far higher. FDD\u2019s daniel Swift and Elaine Dezenski estimate a wide range of $50 billion to $300 billion, based on losses from Iran\u2019s hydrocarbon sector and the costs of replacing damaged assets, using sources including satellite imagery, U.S. Central Command damage reports, and International Atomic Energy Agency assessments.<\/p>\n<p>The report finds that much of the damage stems from the war itself-around two-thirds from the air campaign and one-third from the blockade.Direct repair and replacement costs make up a large share, including damage to nuclear-related facilities, missile\/drone production infrastructure, air bases, naval vessels, and air defense systems. Replacement is expected to be especially challenging due to sanctions, supply-chain constraints, and the scarcity of certain military capabilities.<\/p>\n<p>FDD also warns its model underestimates total impact because it leaves out difficult-to-quantify drivers such as rebuilding Iran\u2019s regional proxy network, losses of skilled human capital, wartime inflation, reconstruction financing burdens, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/iran-reportedly-cuts-internet-as-anti-government-protests-swell-what-to-know\/\" title=\"Iran reportedly cuts internet as anti...government protests swell: What to know\">long-term deterrence<\/a> of foreign investment.The blockade\u2019s pressure on oil exports is highlighted as especially damaging, wiht concerns that limited storage could force Iran to cut production and possibly harm long-term capacity.<\/p>\n<p>Experts quoted in the article add that Iran\u2019s economy may be too distorted for easy numeric comparisons, pointing to factors like the practical availability of gasoline alongside the near-worthlessness of the rial. Other cited harms include long internet blackouts that disrupt commerce and operations, and Operation Economic Fury, which reportedly tightened sanctions loopholes and increased financial pressure, including moves targeting crypto-related channels. While the article discusses reports of a CIA estimate suggesting Iran could struggle for only a few months, analysts emphasize uncertainty and the role of unpredictable political and social factors in determining how long the regime can endure.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<article class=\"fn-body\">\n<p>An estimate put the total explicit <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/economics\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"1260\">economic<\/a> damage to <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iran\/\" type=\"post_tag\" id=\"100\">Iran<\/a> as a result of the war and blockade at $144 billion, but the true figure is believed to be much higher.<\/p>\n<p>Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a pro-Israel think tank, released the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fdd.org\/analysis\/2026\/04\/23\/evaluating-the-economic-damage-to-iran-from-operation-epic-fury-an-initial-estimate\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.fdd.org\/analysis\/2026\/04\/23\/evaluating-the-economic-damage-to-iran-from-operation-epic-fury-an-initial-estimate\/\">report<\/a> on Friday, providing one of the first explicit damage assessments of Iran\u2019s economy. FDD\u2019s Center on Economic and Financial Power senior research analyst Daniel Swift and FDD\u2019s CEFP senior director Elaine Dezenski gave a wide estimate of $50 billion to $300 billion, with $144 billion being the most likely middle estimate.<\/p>\n<section class=\"explore-more-section\" id=\"wex-recommended-widget\">\n<div class=\"magazine-container single\">\n<h1 class=\"magazine-title mt-2\">Recommended Stories<\/h1>\n<p>             <i class=\"fa-solid fa-play icon\"><\/i>         <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-grid\">\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4554824\/gas-prices-over-30-cents-per-gallon-more-expensive-than-a-week-ago\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>Gas prices: Over 30 cents per gallon more expensive than a week ago<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/in_focus\/4550128\/the-gop-must-deliver-immediate-tax-relief-before-the-midterms-and-they-can-start-at-the-pump\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>The GOP must deliver immediate tax relief before the midterm elections, and it can start at the pump<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<div class=\"explore-card\">                         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/policy\/economy\/4548895\/house-passes-funding-bill-reopen-dhs\/?itm_source=parsely-api\">                             <\/p>\n<div class=\"explore-thumb-wrap\">                                                                                                                                  <\/div>\n<h3>House passes funding bill to reopen DHS minus border enforcement<\/h3>\n<p>                         <\/a>                     <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>However, the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >model deliberately excluded uncertain<\/a> or difficult-to-quantify factors, effectively underestimating the true economic damage to Iran, which is much higher. The model made its estimate based on hydrocarbon revenue losses and physical replacement costs.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Drawing on satellite imagery, U.S. Central Command battle damage reports, International Atomic Energy Commission assessments, reporting, and Iranian statements, Swift and Dezenski calculated the combined damage to military and strategic assets, economic infrastructure, and disruptions to the economy. Half of the total costs of direct damage were from nuclear facilities, missile and drone production infrastructure, air bases, naval vessels, and air defense systems. The other part of the model came from analysis of lost revenue from oil and gas industry disruptions and the prevention of oil exports.<\/p>\n<p>The majority of damage came from the war itself. Swift told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that two-thirds of the economic damage was from the war\u2019s air campaign, while the remaining one-third was from the blockade.<\/p>\n<p>Replacement costs for Iran, which make up the lion\u2019s share of the cost estimates, differ due to supply chain difficulties and sanctions. Its prized F-14 Tomcats are irreplaceable, as only the United States ever produced them.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMost military hardware has a use-life measured in decades, and rebuilding Iran\u2019s nuclear program, missile production infrastructure, and naval fleet would require, not only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/blumenthal-says-theres-a-real-risk-in-pga-and-liv-merger-want-to-get-to-the-bottom-of-it\/\" title=\"Blumenthal ...ns of &#039;real risk&#039; in PGA and LIV merger, vows to investigate.\">substantial financial resources<\/a>, but time, technical expertise, and supply chains that U.S. sanctions have already severely constrained,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n<p>Swift said the model deliberately excluded unquantifiable factors for accuracy, but he noted that these make the true costs of the war much higher.<\/p>\n<p>This included the cost of rebuilding its regional proxy network, human capital loss, astronomical wartime inflation, reconstruction financing, and many more factors that are likely valued in the hundreds of billions. Long-term foreign direct investment deterrence was a major unquantifiable cost.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWho\u2019s going to put money in rebuilding Iran if it\u2019s still in an uncertain peace?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The blockade\u2019s biggest impact is on Iran\u2019s oil industry, a central part of its economy. Unable to export the current flows and running out of storage space, Iran will soon be forced to cut production, something that could cause <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/former-top-coronavirus-task-force-official-blasts-biden-wed-have-to-slow-down-to-meet-his-goal\/\" title=\"Former Top Coronavirus Task Force Official Blasts Biden: We\u2019d Have To \u2018Slow Down\u2019 To Meet His Goal\">long-term damage<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe issue is, if they run out of storage capacity, they have to take less out of the wells, which could allow water seepage and permanent damage to production capacity,\u201d Swift said, adding that this could happen as soon as this month.<\/p>\n<p>Research fellow and Middle East expert Zineb Riboua at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Hudson Institute, stressed the impact of the Trump administration\u2019s Operation Economic Fury on Iran\u2019s economy, closing many of its desperately needed sanctions loopholes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat usually happened was that whenever there were sanctions, there would be huge loopholes, especially in the shadow banking that passes through the [United Arab Emirates], but also through China,\u201d she said. \u201cBut Operation Economic Fury really put pressure on those two major loopholes, and also the Treasury seized some crypto wallets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would use these loopholes to buy more time during negotiations, but now, \u201cthe more they think they\u2019re going to buy time, the more pressure comes at them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo whether the economic crisis is already there and is collapsing, I think we\u2019re already there,\u201d Riboua said. \u201cThe economy was not doing well way before the operation, and now it\u2019s way worse. They obviously do not show it, because it\u2019s not in their mentality to do so, but it\u2019s not looking good.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Another major factor damaging the Iranian economy is the internet blackout, which has lasted over 70 days. While essential for Tehran\u2019s suppression apparatus, it cripples Iranian trade and commerce.<\/p>\n<p>Jon Alterman, Zbigniew Brzezinski chairman of global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stressed the massive impact of the war and blockade on the Iranian economy but expressed skepticism about putting a number on the damage.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe economy is so distorted in Iran, to start with, that the sort of normal economic numbers don\u2019t give you as accurate an insight as it sounds like it does,\u201d he told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>As an example, he pointed to how gasoline is \u201cbasically free,\u201d but the Iranian rial is \u201cthe most worthless currency in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI would say this war has profoundly affected every single corner of the Iranian economy,\u201d Alterman said. \u201cEvery corner. There\u2019s not a part of the Iranian economy that is not profoundly shaken by this war, but it\u2019s also a totalitarian government with control over the media, control over the internet, and the clear willingness to kill dissenters. So how much are people aware? It\u2019s operating according to a completely different set of rules.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As for the main question of the day, how long Iran can hold out, Swift, Alterman, and Riboua were all hesitant to give an exact number. Several outlets reported that a CIA estimate put the time frame at three to four months, a figure the three believed plausible.<\/p>\n<p>Alterman voiced caution against any schedule, noting that many revolutions are impossible to predict.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRevolutions and uprisings aren\u2019t about math,\u201d Alterman said. \u201cThere\u2019s math involved, but there\u2019s no arithmetic tipping point.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Alterman noted how the 1979 Islamic Revolution seemed to many analysts, including the CIA, to come out of nowhere.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt was just a few random things breaking a certain way,\u201d Alterman said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s not like you reached a tipping point. It\u2019s just random stuff happening.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think the regime is under stress. They\u2019ve lost a lot of experienced people,\u201d he added. \u201cMojtaba Khamenei doesn\u2019t have legitimacy and doesn\u2019t have a wide base of support. \u2026 But whether it\u2019s fatal or not depends on partly on the economy and partly on some random things that may or may not happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/4491652\/iran-finance-death-blow-war\/\">IRAN FACES FINANCIAL DEATH BLOW BECAUSE OF WAR<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Riboua was the most bullish on the economy collapsing sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think that they can\u2019t hold out for a very long time, because this is a systemic economic crisis, so every day it will just get worse,\u201d she said, adding that Operation Economic Fury had stripped them of most of their usual coping mechanisms.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FDD estimates Iran\u2019s war\/blockade damage at $144B, likely far higher<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2653,"featured_media":2600547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP26126594564151.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[35077,79358,3823,32726,50434],"class_list":["post-2600546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-economic-impact","tag-estimated-damage","tag-iran","tag-middle-east","tag-war-2"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/AP26126594564151.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2653"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2600546"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2600551,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600546\/revisions\/2600551"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2600547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2600546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2600546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2600546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}