{"id":2585009,"date":"2026-03-29T08:24:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T12:24:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/paul-ehrlichs-population-bomb-failure-shows-the-dangers-of-scientific-alarmism\/"},"modified":"2026-03-29T08:28:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T12:28:41","slug":"paul-ehrlichs-population-bomb-failure-shows-the-dangers-of-scientific-alarmism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/paul-ehrlichs-population-bomb-failure-shows-the-dangers-of-scientific-alarmism\/","title":{"rendered":"Paul Ehrlich&#8217;s &#8216;Population Bomb&#8217; Failure Shows the Dangers of Scientific Alarmism"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpaul-ehrlichs-population-bomb-failure-shows-the-dangers-of-scientific-alarmism%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2585009&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>An op-ed by Steve Milloy critiques Paul Ehrlich\u2019s the Population Bomb and its doomsday predictions about overpopulation, arguing thay were repeatedly incorrect and not supported by reliable science. It recalls Ehrlich\u2019s 1969 warning in the New York Times, his famous 1980 bet with Julian Simon (which Simon won as metal prices fell), and Ehrlich\u2019s belief that Earth\u2019s carrying capacity was as low as 1.5 billion. The piece notes that the global population has since risen to about 8.3 billion,far above Ehrlich\u2019s projections,and <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >argues ehrlich gained celebrity<\/a> and influence despite ongoing mispredictions. It contends that The Population Bomb was alarmist rhetoric rather than rigorous science and that science seeks testable certainty, not unshakeable consensus. The author also argues Ehrlich was not a true Malthusian, while acknowledging that the article reflects his viewpoint as a DCNF publication, with a Disclaimer about the author\u2019s stance.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>But that never happened. Instead, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/flashback-recycling-obsessed-earth-day-founder-killed-composted-ex-girlfriend\/\" title=\"Flashback: Recycling-Obsessed Earth Day Founder Killed, \u2018Composted\u2019 Ex-Girlfriend\">food production<\/a> and population growth boomed.<\/p>\n<p>In 1969, Ehrlich told the New York Times that because of overpopulation, food production failure, and pollution: &ldquo;We must realize that unless we are extremely lucky, everybody will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Though Ehrlich predicted complete doom for humanity by 1989, we are still here and thriving.<\/p>\n<p>In 1980, Ehrlich famously bet free market economist Julian Simon $1,000 that the prices of five metals &ndash; chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten &ndash; would increase due to scarcity during the 1980s. But the price of the basket of metals declined by 43 percent. Wrong again, Ehrlich lost what became known as &ldquo;The Bet.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Until the end, Ehrlich insisted that the carrying population of the Earth was as low as 1.5 billion people. Global population is now at 8.28 billion people and growing. Ehrlich was more than 6.75 billion people wrong.<\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"anyclipvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\tdocument.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\", function() { \t\t\t\t\tfunction loadAnyclip() { \t\t\t\t\t\tconst container=document.getElementById(\"anyclipvideo\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tif (!container) return;  \t\t\t\t\t\tconst script=document.createElement(\"script\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tscript.src=\"https:\/\/player.anyclip.com\/anyclip-widget\/lre-widget\/prod\/v1\/src\/lre.js\"; \t\t\t\t\t\tscript.setAttribute(\"pubname\", \"westernjournalcom\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tscript.setAttribute(\"widgetname\", \"001w000001jULVcAAO_M12924\");  \t\t\t\t\t\t\/\/ append inside the container so player shows in correct spot \t\t\t\t\t\tcontainer.appendChild(script); \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\tfunction findPreviousParagraph(selector, x) { \t\t\t\t\t\tconst targetElement=document.querySelector(selector); \t\t\t\t\t\tif (!targetElement) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.warn(\"Target element not found.\"); \t\t\t\t\t\t\treturn null; \t\t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Get all <\/p>\n<p> elements in order as they appear in the document \t\t\t\t\t\tlet paragraphs=Array.from(document.querySelectorAll(\"p\"));  \t\t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Find the index of the last <\/p>\n<p> before the target element \t\t\t\t\t\tlet targetIndex=paragraphs.findIndex(p=> p.compareDocumentPosition(targetElement) & Node.DOCUMENT_POSITION_PRECEDING);  \t\t\t\t\t\tif (targetIndex===-1 || targetIndex <x) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.warn(\"Not enough paragraphs before the target element.\"); \t\t\t\t\t\t\treturn null; \t\t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\treturn paragraphs[targetIndex - x]; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Set up IntersectionObserver \t\t\t\t\tfunction observeElement(element) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif (!element) return;  \t\t\t\t\t\tconst observer=new IntersectionObserver( \t\t\t\t\t\t\t(entries)=> { \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tentries.forEach(entry=> { \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tif (entry.isIntersecting) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log(\"Paragraph is now visible:\", entry.target.textContent.trim()); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tloadAnyclip(); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tobserver.disconnect(); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t}, \t\t\t\t\t\t\t{ threshold: 0.5 } \/\/ Adjust threshold as needed \t\t\t\t\t\t);  \t\t\t\t\t\tobserver.observe(element); \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Find the 1st paragraph before #anyclipvideo and observe it \t\t\t\t\tlet paragraphToObserve=findPreviousParagraph(\"#anyclipvideo\", 2); \t\t\t\t\tobserveElement(paragraphToObserve); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>Ehrlich&rsquo;s bizarre leap from studying butterflies to human population and commodity forecasting led him down a career path to celebrity (he appeared on Johnny Carson&rsquo;s late-night show 20 times) and academic fame (he was elected to be a member of the prestigious National Academy of Sciences).<\/p>\n<p>But none of Ehrlich&rsquo;s predictions were ever correct. Worse, he never really acknowledged his own non-stop laughable errors.<\/p>\n<p>In his 2009 article, &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/mahb.stanford.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/2009_EhrlichPB-REVISIT-1.pdf\">The Population Bomb Revisited<\/a>,&rdquo; Ehrlich concluded: &ldquo;The Population Bomb certainly had its flaws, which is to be expected. Science never produces certainty.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>But &ldquo;certainty&rdquo; is the goal of science. We were able to get to the moon in 1969 because we could use Newton&rsquo;s laws to predict where the moon would be so we could aim Apollo 11 to meet it in orbit. That is exquisite certainty developed through science. Our modern world is entirely dependent on much other certainty that true science has produced.<\/p>\n<p>Ehrlich blamed others for his errors, writing: &ldquo;One of our personal strategies has always been to have our work reviewed carefully by other scientists, and The Population Bomb was no exception.<\/p>\n<p>It was vetted by a series of scientists, including some who became top leaders in the scientific enterprise. That is one reason that long ago the fundamental message of The Bomb moved from a somewhat heterodox view to a near consensus view of the scientific community.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The Population Bomb, however, was not scientific research. It was an alarmist polemic about overpopulation. In the book, Ehrlich even suggested adding contraceptives to drinking water supplies. There was never any consensus on Ehrlich&rsquo;s views or overpopulation fears.<\/p>\n<p>He may have been applauded by other members of the overpopulation cult, but that is hardly a scientific consensus. And science is not done by consensus in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>Critics often call Ehrlich a &ldquo;Malthusian,&rdquo; referring to late-18th<sup>\/<\/sup>early-19th century English economist Thomas Malthus, who also predicted population would outgrow the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/white-house-releases-list-of-president-trumps-accomplishments-and-it-is-historic\/\" title=\"White House Releases List of President Trump\u2019s Accomplishments \u2013  And It Is Historic!\">food supply<\/a>. Malthus was also incorrect, but not malignantly so. He died in 1834 and did not live long enough to witness the otherwise unforeseeable technological revolution in food production.<\/p>\n<p>Ehrlich was wrong at the start, in the middle, and at the end of his career. Yet he received accolades anyway and was never compelled to acknowledge he was just plain wrong. He repeatedly witnessed his own predictions fail, but political correctness saved him from any sort of accountability.<\/p>\n<p>No, Ehrlich was not a Malthusian. He was just Paul Ehrlich, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/elon-musk-i-got-a-covid-test-four-times-in-one-day-two-came-back-negative-two-came-back-positive-the-daily-wire\/\" title=\"Elon Musk: I Got A COVID Test Four Times In One Day. \u2018Two Came Back Negative, Two Came Back Positive.\u2019 | The Daily Wire\">population bomb<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Steve Milloy is a biostatistician and lawyer. He posts on X at @JunkScience.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"disclaimer\">\n<p>All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/union-membership-plummets-to-record-low\/\" title=\"Union Membership Plummets to Record Low\">legitimate news publisher<\/a> that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter&rsquo;s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/mailto:licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org\">licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> \t     \t\t\t\t\t\t     \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> \t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s a concise paraphrase of the main points:<\/p>\n<p>The piece argues that Ehrlich\u2019s doomsday predictions about overpopulation and resource shortages were wrong. He warned in 1969 that humanity could disappear in a couple of decades due to overpopulation, pollution, and failed food production, and he later claimed doom by 1989. He even bet Julian Simon that the prices of five metals would rise because of scarcity, but those prices fell about 43% in the 1980s. Ehrlich had maintained that the Earth\u2019s carrying capacity was as low as 1.5 billion, yet the global population has grown to about 8.28 billion and continues to rise, which the article says makes his forecasts look wildly off.<\/p>\n<p>The author contends that Ehrlich\u2019s famous book, The Population Bomb, was more an alarmist polemic than rigorous science, despite Ehrlich\u2019s insistence that science seeks certainty. The piece notes that Ehrlich\u2019s views were controversial and not universally accepted, and criticizes him for not acknowledging his repeated errors. It also casts doubt on his claims of scientific consensus and accuses him of opportunistically avoiding accountability. The article identifies itself as an opinion piece by Steve Milloy for the Daily Caller News Foundation, and it includes standard publication Disclaimers. If you\u2019d like, I can provide a longer, section-by-section paraphrase or focus on specific parts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2585010,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/IMG_7316.jpeg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[12289,76741,14083,5477,76742],"class_list":["post-2585009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-alarmism","tag-demography","tag-ehrlich","tag-population","tag-science-communication"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/IMG_7316.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2585009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2585009"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2585009\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2585013,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2585009\/revisions\/2585013"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2585010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2585009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2585009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2585009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}