{"id":2579769,"date":"2026-03-14T07:27:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T11:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/its-already-a-two-person-race-for-the-2028-democratic-nomination\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T07:31:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T11:31:03","slug":"its-already-a-two-person-race-for-the-2028-democratic-nomination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/its-already-a-two-person-race-for-the-2028-democratic-nomination\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s already a two-person race for the 2028 Democratic nomination"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fits-already-a-two-person-race-for-the-2028-democratic-nomination%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2579769&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The piece argues that the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is effectively shaping into a two-front race led by Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, with a crowd of other hopefuls vying for influence or a potential vice-presidential slot. It notes that early polling is uneven, with Harris and Newsom generally ahead while Pete buttigieg lingers in third, though some polls (and a Harvard-Harris poll) exclude Buttigieg, raising questions about methodology.<\/p>\n<p>A key theme is the fragility of current polling due to small samples and online panel methods, which can produce volatile results and apparent swings in support. The article suggests Harris has solid leads with Black voters, Hispanics, lower-income, and younger voters, while Newsom performs better with older, whiter, and wealthier voters. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is highlighted as a potentially influential factor for Harris if her supporters gravitate toward Harris in a race where Democratic identity politics could play a pivotal role.<\/p>\n<p>The author also reflects on the predictability of Democratic primaries, the historical rarity of \u201copen\u201d contests with more than one strong contender early on, and the tension between elite endorsements and ordinary voters. Harris is portrayed as a formidable challenger who, despite criticisms, isn\u2019t easily counted out, with the dynamics likely to evolve as the field and voter coalitions take shape.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">It&rsquo;s already a two-person race for the 2028 Democratic nomination<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_2497446\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Believe it or not, the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/4477066\/2028-presidential-election-hopefuls-slam-trump-iran-strikes\/\">race for the Democratic nomination<\/a> has already narrowed to two main players and a gaggle of extras. The clutch of polling thus far is of uneven quality, to say the least, but former Vice President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4448734\/kamala-harris-2028-best-news-for-gop-joe-concha\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4448734\/kamala-harris-2028-best-news-for-gop-joe-concha\/\">Kamala Harris<\/a> and Gov. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/in_focus\/4487551\/gavin-newsom-will-not-be-democratic-nominee-2028\/\" type=\"link\" id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/in_focus\/4487551\/gavin-newsom-will-not-be-democratic-nominee-2028\/\">Gavin Newsom<\/a> (D-CA) are the clear frontrunners with everyone else auditioning for Veep.<\/p>\n<p>The fact is, the Democratic nomination process has become fairly predictable and stable. You have to go back to 1992 to find a race where multiple candidates were in the mix before and through the early primaries. The last <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >true dark horse winner<\/a> was <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/Jimmy-Carter\">Jimmy Carter <\/a>in 1976.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"recommended-stories\">\n<h2>Recommended Stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/restoring-america\/community-family\/4487998\/warner-bros-deal-done-netflix-should-focus-on-trust\/\">With the Warner Bros. deal off the table, Netflix should focus on regaining trust<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/op-eds\/4488046\/donald-trump-affordability-2026-midterm-elections-congress\/\">How to make sure Trump&#8217;s efforts to bring prices down aren&#8217;t in vain<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/op-eds\/4489464\/chaos-not-democracy-if-iran-ignores-pluralistic-coalition\/\">Chaos to come, not democracy, if Iran ignores need for pluralistic coalition<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Even in &ldquo;open&rdquo; contests (where a sitting president or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/hunter-biden-defector-emails-pipeline-to-obama-admin-seen-as-currency\/\" title=\"Hunter Biden Defector Emails: &#039;Pipeline&#039; to Obama Admin Seen as &#039;Currency&#039;\">vice president<\/a> was not running), the race was down to two heavyweights very early &mdash; or even one heavyweight. Biden v. Sanders (Yes, Joe Biden was the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/campaign\/480424-could-biden-steamroll-the-democratic-field\/\">clear favorite<\/a> in 2020), Clinton v. Sanders, Obama v. Clinton, Gore v. Bradley, and, inexplicably, John Kerry v. nobody.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/4485941\/democrats-running-for-president-2028\/\">THE DEMOCRATS WHO COULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2028<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/democratic-primary\/2028\/national\">early polling<\/a> is strange, to say the least, but generally shows what one might expect: Harris, with high name ID and tens of millions of Democrats having twice voted for her, in a leading position. The other candidate with high name ID and years of media exposure, Newsom, also running strong.<\/p>\n<p>In the 17 polls logged by RealClearPolitics since Labor Day, Harris leads in 10 polls and places second in 5 polls. Newsom leads in 7 polls and places second in 10 polls. Both are national figures and can get media attention any time they want. Only former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg looks like he could <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3456078\/2028-presidential-race-poll-jd-vance\/\">crash the party<\/a>, with a national profile &mdash; if less than Harris or Newsom &mdash; and a RealClearPolitics average of 10.3%, good for third. Bizarrely, the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/harvardharrispoll.com\/key-results-february-2026\/\">Harvard-Harris<\/a> poll omits Buttigieg entirely.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Buttigieg&rsquo;s numbers are propped up by some questionable polling. He gets his <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1SS_Vfa-SArcPFS60SmvpIB-kd_sakjcX\/edit?pli=1&amp;gid=585368797#gid=585368797\">best numbers <\/a>from Emerson and Atlas Intel, mostly at the expense of Harris. For a while, the results from Atlas looked like something cooked up by Buttigieg&rsquo;s staff. The <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/opinion\/editorials\/2643275\/give-no-show-buttigieg-full-time-paternity-leave-abolish-his-department\/\">occasional DOT secretary<\/a> scored leads of 15 points over Harris in May and 11 points over Newsom in July. Although the poll has drifted back to Earth, its most recent poll has Harris at a mere 8%, 27 points below Newsom. That&rsquo;s not believable.<\/p>\n<p>Emerson&rsquo;s polling also looks wonky. In consecutive polls, Buttigieg scored 16%, good for second place, putting Harris in third. That&rsquo;s the highest number for any poll in that time period, and only Emerson and our friends at Atlas put Harris in third.<\/p>\n<p>The problem could come down to the biggest factor bedeviling polling and causing poor results: sampling. In order to provide a robust and credible result, a poll needs to survey enough people &mdash; at least 1,000 is preferred for a national poll. Ideally, pollsters should have a &ldquo;fresh&rdquo; sample for each poll (new respondents). But all of that is expensive. Pollsters are increasingly using &ldquo;panels&rdquo; recruited online, where the same people are sometimes polled in consecutive months.<\/p>\n<p>From my outsider&rsquo;s view, Emerson suffers from a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/doomsday-climate-studies-turn-out-to-be-overblown-nonsense\/\" title=\"Doomsday Climate Studies Turn Out To Be Overblown Nonsense\">low sample size<\/a> and possibly a bad panel. When you peel off independents from its most recent poll, it leaves just 321&nbsp; Democrats &mdash; that&rsquo;s nothing. Even then, the numbers shift away from Buttigieg to 22% for Newsom, 17% for Harris, and 14% for Buttigieg.<\/p>\n<p>Atlas has a bigger sample at over 2,300 respondents. But it appears their online recruiting could use some work. Newsom zoomed from a mere 7% in May to 35% in December, while Harris crashed from 17% to 8%. No other poll has had these kinds of ructions.<\/p>\n<p>Other <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\">national polls<\/a> have similar sampling problems, with most polling between 1,000 and 2,000 voters, translating to 500 to 700 Democratic voters. With low samples, any analysis requires the same results from multiple polls to be reliable. In that vein, Harris and Newsom can feel comfortable about being on top of the heap.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Harris&rsquo;s desultory campaign thus far, there are key factors that will make her tough to beat. According to both Harvard-Harris and <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scribd.com\/document\/1000095650\/Yahoo-YouGov-Politics-Poll-Feb-2026#content=query:buttigieg,pageNum:26,indexOnPage:0,bestMatch:false\">Yahoo News<\/a> polls, Harris has solid leads with black voters and polls strongly with Hispanics, lower-income, and younger voters. The Harvard-Harris poll has Harris at 59% for black voters and 42% for Hispanics, far ahead of Newsom. For Newsom, his polling gets better the older, richer, and whiter the voter.<\/p>\n<p>The results for Rep. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez\">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez<\/a> (D-NY) are very salient for Harris. The only other woman and the only Hispanic in the race, Yahoo News puts her at 12% overall, with 16% of Hispanics and 19% of 18-29 voters, groups with which Harris also polls well.<\/p>\n<p>What happens to Ocasio-Cortez voters when they figure she is (probably) not running? Are they in her column now because they won&rsquo;t vote for Harris, or will they shift to the nearest gender and ethnic equivalent? If Harris scoops up the Ocasio-Cortez acolytes, she becomes almost unstoppable.<\/p>\n<p>For all her faults, Harris knows how to read a poll. She is leaning into Democratic identity politics &mdash; which is her strong suit. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4479701\/james-talarico-bests-jasmine-crockett-texas-senate-primary\/\">Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) was a loser<\/a> on Election Day in Texas, but the Harris endorsement was a winner for Harris.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/4486347\/josh-shapiro-2028-jd-vance-name-recognition-poll\/\">HAVE YOU SEEN THESE PEOPLE? ONE OF THEM MIGHT BE YOUR NEXT PRESIDENT<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2026\/03\/09\/kamala-harris-2028-book-tour-democrats-00818284\">grandees of the Democratic Party<\/a> may want to move on. But Democratic primary voters could have very different ideas.&nbsp;If the elites are not on board with Newsom, they don&rsquo;t have much time to find someone. And if they are on board with the white guy from an elite California family, Harris and the identity police are going to have a field day.<\/p>\n<p>The punditocracy can laugh all they want at Harris. She won&rsquo;t be an easy out.<\/p>\n<p><em>Keith Naughton is a U.S.-based journalist.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two-horse Dem race: Harris and Newsom lead<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4213,"featured_media":2579770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/WB.Campaign1.031225.webp?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651,538],"tags":[73011,75790,75791,75792],"class_list":["post-2579769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","category-washington-examiner","tag-2028-election-2","tag-democratic-nomination-2","tag-presidential-primaries","tag-two-person-race"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/WB.Campaign1.031225.webp?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4213"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2579769"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2579773,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579769\/revisions\/2579773"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2579770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2579769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2579769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2579769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}