{"id":2573871,"date":"2026-02-26T09:08:56","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T14:08:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-real-rate-of-transgender-violence-is-much-worse-than-the-media-wants-to-admit\/"},"modified":"2026-02-26T09:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T14:14:22","slug":"the-real-rate-of-transgender-violence-is-much-worse-than-the-media-wants-to-admit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-real-rate-of-transgender-violence-is-much-worse-than-the-media-wants-to-admit\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate Of Transgender Violence Is Much Worse Than Media Admits"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthe-real-rate-of-transgender-violence-is-much-worse-than-the-media-wants-to-admit%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2573871&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The piece argues that media reporting on transgender-identifying individuals and gun violence frequently enough understates or mischaracterizes the issue by failing to adjust for the group&#8217;s small share of the population and by using overly broad definitions of shootings.It contends that when proper definitions and population-adjusted comparisons are used, transgender-identifying shooters are disproportionately represented in mass public and active shooting attacks.<\/p>\n<p>Key points:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; The author claims transgender-identifying people are not as rare in mass shootings as some reports imply, showing that their share of attacks can be many times their population share when appropriate comparisons are made.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Many outlets (AP, CNN, NYT, Washington Post, etc.) are accused of either omitting or downplaying that some attackers identified as transgender, or of using broad classifications that lump together different types of violent incidents.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; The analysis emphasizes the importance of using FBI definitions for mass\/active shootings (e.g., four or more victims killed) and separating mass public shootings from other crimes like gang violence or robberies.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Population estimates place transgender individuals at about 0.7\u20131% of the population (with adjustments for age, particularly under 36), which, when compared to the share of mass\/public and active shooting incidents, yields a disproportionate portrayal (claims of roughly 12 times their population share in active shootings in 2024; 5% of mass public shootings as 2018\u20132025).<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; The piece discusses contributing factors such as high reported suicide attempts among transgender people (about 10\u201312% in the past year, versus ~0.6% in the general adult population) and the tendency of mass shooters to intend to maximize casualties, which the author suggests may align with the characteristics of some transgender shooters.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; It argues for more precise and honest reporting, better statistical methods, and comparably focused research when examining different types of violent attacks.<\/p>\n<p>Author and purpose:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research center, frames the piece as a call for more accurate analysis and reporting to inform serious policy discussions on mass violence.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>We&rsquo;re repeatedly told that transgender-identifying individuals are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politifact.com\/article\/2025\/sep\/09\/trans-people-mass-shootings-gun-violence\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">not prone to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/governor-set-to-sign-sweeping-firearm-legislation-to-modernize-gun-laws\/\" title=\"Governor to sign new gun laws to modernize firearm regulations.\">commit gun violence<\/a><\/a>. Major outlets &mdash; including the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/08\/29\/us\/politics\/minneapolis-shooting-anti-transgender-conservatives-robin-westman.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The New York Times<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/fact-check-transgender-nashville-shooting-misinformation-cd62492d066d41e820c138256570978c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AP<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/08\/30\/politics\/minneapolis-school-shooting-trump-administration-left-right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CNN<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/2023\/03\/30\/nashville-shooting-transgender-shooter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Washington Post<\/a> &mdash; publish articles arguing that transgender attacks are extremely rare and run headlines calling out conservative bias: &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/health\/2023\/03\/30\/nashville-shooting-transgender-shooter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The right exploits Nashville shooting to escalate anti-trans rhetoric<\/a>&rdquo; and &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/08\/29\/us\/politics\/minneapolis-shooting-anti-transgender-conservatives-robin-westman.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Conservatives use Minneapolis shooting in anti-transgender campaigns<\/a>.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>In the wake of the attacks in <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2026\/02\/canada-mass-public-shooting-committed-by-transgender-9-murdered-25-injured-gunperson-is-a-dress\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Canada<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2026\/02\/mass-shooter-at-the-pawtucket-rhode-island-hockey-arena-was-another-transgender\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pawtucket, Rhode Island<\/a>, over the past couple of weeks, public debate has once again focused on transgender murderers. But the <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/GCTvXXPuhKg?si=X6dwG4UB5rg1X2pV&amp;t=53\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AP, CNN, ABC News, NBC News, MS Now, and the New York Times<\/a> never mentioned the Rhode Island shooter identified as transgender. <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/GCTvXXPuhKg?si=mNCEz6YZT4ydgo1T&amp;t=119\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AP<\/a> never mentioned the Canadian mass murderer was transgender. Other transgender-identifying people recently also posed serious threats even though they never got a chance to fire a shot. For example, <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2025\/09\/nicholas-roske-who-tried-to-murder-supreme-court-justice-brett-kavanaugh-is-a-man-who-identifies-as-a-woman-and-supports-gun-control\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nicholas Roske, who now identifies as transgender<\/a>, attempted to murder Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and took concrete steps toward carrying out the attack before authorities stopped him.<\/p>\n<p>The media, however, continues to make basic statistical mistakes in claiming transgender-identifying people aren&rsquo;t disproportionately violent. Transgender-identifying shooters commit mass public shootings and active shootings at rates far above their share of the population. In 2024, for example, transgender-identifying individuals accounted for a share of active shooter attacks that was at least <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2026\/02\/transgender-shooters-commit-disproportionate-shares-of-mass-public-and-active-shooting-attacks-in-2024-at-least-12-times-their-share-of-the-population\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">12 times larger than their share of the population<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Statistical Errors and Broad Definitions<\/h2>\n<p>Outlets ranging from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politifact.com\/article\/2025\/sep\/09\/trans-people-mass-shootings-gun-violence\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PolitiFact<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/fact-check-transgender-nashville-shooting-misinformation-cd62492d066d41e820c138256570978c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AP<\/a> make a key error when they report only the transgender share of attacks without adjusting for the group&rsquo;s small share of the overall population. That is an obvious statistical mistake. If a group makes up just 1 percent of the population but commits 10 percent of the attacks, no one would dismiss that disparity simply because the group accounts for &ldquo;only&rdquo; 10 percent of active shooting incidents.<\/p>\n<p>Publications such as <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/fact-check-transgender-nashville-shooting-misinformation-cd62492d066d41e820c138256570978c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AP<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snopes.com\/fact-check\/transgender-mass-shootings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Snopes<\/a> also rely on overly broad definitions of shootings. They include incidents that differ fundamentally from the types of attacks committed by transgender-identifying individuals. For example, the Gun Violence Archive classifies as &ldquo;mass shootings&rdquo; many incidents that primarily involve gang fights over drug turf and, to a lesser extent, crimes such as robberies. While researchers may reasonably study those incidents, they differ sharply from cases in which an individual enters a public location with the explicit goal of murdering and injuring as many people as possible to generate publicity.<\/p>\n<p>Mass public shooters repeatedly state their intent to kill more people in order to attract greater attention. Gang members and robbers, by contrast, pursue entirely different motives. By lumping together gang fights and robberies with targeted mass public shootings, analysts make attacks by transgender-identifying people appear rarer than they actually are. Researchers should compare transgender-identifying attackers to perpetrators of similar types of attacks. Few would argue that gang turf wars share the same motivations &mdash; or require the same solutions &mdash; as mass public shootings.<\/p>\n<h2>Accurate Analysis<\/h2>\n<p>The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/U-_ActiveShooter13B_FBI.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FBI&rsquo;s active shooting<\/a>&nbsp;reports focus on shootings that occur in public and explicitly exclude other underlying crimes such as gang disputes or robberies. Traditionally, the FBI has <a href=\"https:\/\/sgp.fas.org\/crs\/misc\/R44126.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">classified a &ldquo;mass&rdquo;<\/a>&nbsp;killing as the murder of four or more people, and academic studies have adopted similar definitions. I use that same definition (with additional details&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2018\/06\/more-misleading-information-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">available here<\/a>) and analyze both mass public shootings &mdash; defined as active shootings involving four or more victims murdered &mdash; and active shootings more broadly.<\/p>\n<p>From 2018 to 2023, estimates from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/yrbs\/data\/national-yrbs-datasets-documentation.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CDC<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/389792\/lgbt-identification-ticks-up.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Gallup<\/a>, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/usafacts.org\/articles\/what-percentage-of-the-us-population-is-transgender\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">census<\/a> place the transgender share of the population at an average of about 0.73 percent. An August 2025 study by the Williams Institute estimates that about 1 percent of individuals age 13 and older identified as transgender in 2024 and 2025. Another Williams Institute survey reports a similar 1 percent figure for those age 13 and over in 2024&ndash;25.<\/p>\n<p>Because transgender-identifying shooters tend to be younger than active shooters overall, age adjustments may be appropriate. If researchers adjust the Williams Institute&rsquo;s 1 percent estimate to reflect the population under age 36 &mdash; the age range more comparable to active shooters &mdash; the relevant percentage falls to approximately 0.76 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The transgender share of mass public shootings over the 2018 to 2025 period make up only 5 percent of attacks, but that is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2026\/01\/updated-detailed-information-on-mass-public-shootings-from-1998-to-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">six times<\/a>&nbsp;their share of the population. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2025\/04\/after-almost-two-years-report-on-nashville-covenant-school-shooting-is-finally-released-no-mention-that-the-shooter-was-trans\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Nashville Covenant School shooter<\/a>&nbsp;in 2023 and the Club Q murderer who&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2023\/02\/the-anti-defamation-leagues-absurd-claim-that-100-of-domestic-extremist-murders-were-committed-by-right-wing-extremists-most-murders-were-actually-committed-by-people-who-should-be-classified-a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">identified as nonbinary and used the pronouns they and them<\/a>&nbsp;in 2022 were transgender-identifying individuals.<\/p>\n<p>For the FBI&rsquo;s active shooting cases, if one uses the Williams Institute estimate that transgender-identifying people are 1 percent of the population and ignore how young they are, their share of active shooting attacks in 2024 is 12 times their share of the population. However, despite&nbsp;Genesse Ivonne Moreno, the Lakewood Church shooter,&nbsp;going by male names, her case is debatable, but even excluding that case still <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2026\/02\/transgender-shooters-commit-disproportionate-shares-of-mass-public-and-active-shooting-attacks-in-2024-at-least-12-times-their-share-of-the-population\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >leaves statistically significant results<\/a><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>These <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/when-did-google-search-become-totally-useless\/\" title=\"When Did Google Search Become Totally Useless?\">results aren&#038;rsquo<\/a>;t particularly surprising given that mass public shooters in particular are <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/2026\/01\/updated-detailed-information-on-mass-public-shootings-from-1998-to-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">overwhelmingly suicidal and expect to die in the attacks<\/a>. Given the high rates of suicide by transgender-identifying individuals, it isn&rsquo;t too surprising that they may be overrepresented among mass public shooters. A 2019 report by the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/Suicidality-Transgender-Sep-2019.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Williams Institute found<\/a>&nbsp;that&nbsp;about 10&ndash;12 percent of transgender-identifying individuals had attempted suicide in the past year.&nbsp;Compare that with the general U.S. adult population rate of 0.6 percent reporting a suicide attempt. The suicide rate is thus at least 16 times greater for transgender-identifying people.<\/p>\n<p>The media needs to stop dismissing these patterns and start reporting the data accurately and in proper context. It isn&rsquo;t rocket science for journalists to understand that they must adjust for population share, use comparable definitions, and distinguish mass public shootings from other crimes rather than blur critical differences. If we want serious solutions to mass public violence, we must first confront the facts honestly and debate them openly.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>      John R. Lott Jr. is the president of the <a href=\"http:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/\">Crime Prevention Research Center<\/a>. He served as the senior advisor for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy in the U.S. Department of Justice during 2020-21.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Claim: transgender people not prone to gun violence<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":685,"featured_media":2573872,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/shooter-e1771873246334.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[51854,74630,73463,74629,74631],"class_list":["post-2573871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-fact-checking-2","tag-lgbtq-safety","tag-media-coverage-2","tag-transgender-violence-2","tag-violence-statistics"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/shooter-e1771873246334.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2573871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/685"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2573871"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2573871\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2573875,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2573871\/revisions\/2573875"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2573872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2573871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2573871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2573871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}