{"id":2549006,"date":"2026-01-23T08:02:01","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T13:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-trumps-2024-coalition-coming-apart-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections-2\/"},"modified":"2026-01-23T08:03:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T13:03:08","slug":"is-trumps-2024-coalition-coming-apart-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-trumps-2024-coalition-coming-apart-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Trump&#8217;s 2024 coalition coming apart ahead of the midterm elections?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fis-trumps-2024-coalition-coming-apart-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections-2%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2549006&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A new York Times-Siena poll suggests the coalition that helped return Donald Trump to the White House is weakening, with losses among nonwhite and younger voters that had been crucial to his 2024 victory. the poll also shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 48% to 43%,and Trump&#8217;s job approval around 40%. Trump dismissed the poll as &#8220;fake,&#8221; though the NYT-Siena instrument has been broadly reliable in recent cycles.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts note this doesn&#8217;t necessarily end the GOP&#8217;s realignment toward a more multiracial, working-class coalition &#8211; Democrats&#8217; gains with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/erickson-financial-stop-and-frisk-is-coming-soon\/\" title=\"ERICKSON: Financial \u2018Stop-And-Frisk\u2019 Is Coming Soon\">college-educated white voters<\/a> have largely held despite economic and border concerns, while the shift of culturally conservative, working-class nonwhite voters toward Republicans may be incomplete or reversible. Republicans face the usual midterm handicap as the party in power and will need to shore up support on economic and domestic issues; the White House has signaled a shift from international focus to more domestic campaigning ahead of November. In short, the Trump-era realignment may have peaked in 2024, but its <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >longer-term trajectory remains uncertain<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Is Trump&rsquo;s 2024 coalition coming apart ahead of the midterm elections?<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_2481211\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>A <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/sri.siena.edu\/2026\/01\/22\/new-york-times-siena-national-poll-special-survey-of-american-voters-after-first-year-of-trumps-second-term\/\">new poll<\/a> suggests that the coalition that returned President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a> to the White House after a four-year hiatus may be eroding.<\/p>\n<p>These numbers come as Republicans seek to defend their narrow congressional majorities in <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-elections\/\">November&rsquo;s midterm elections<\/a>, when replicating Trump&rsquo;s 2024 support levels from low-propensity voters was always going to be a challenge.<\/p>\n<div class=\"recommended-stories\">\n<h2>Recommended Stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4430580\/trump-maximalist-approach-cry-wolf\/\">Trump&#8217;s maximalist approach begs the question: How many times can he cry wolf?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/premium\/4427056\/what-is-stopping-trump-using-insurrection-act-minnesota\/\">What&rsquo;s stopping Trump from using the Insurrection Act in Minnesota?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4430798\/trump-revokes-canada-invitation-board-of-peace-carney\/\">Trump revokes Canada&#8217;s invitation to Board of Peace in Truth Social &#8216;letter&#8217; to Carney<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Trump has lost ground with nonwhite and younger voters, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/01\/22\/polls\/times-siena-national-poll-crosstabs.html\"><em>New York Times<\/em>-Siena College poll<\/a> released on Thursday. His gains with these voters compared to 2020 helped him win the popular vote and defeat former Vice President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\">Kamala Harris<\/a>. Harris is considering another run for president in 2028, though Trump is subject to term limits.<\/p>\n<p>Of more immediate concern to the White House is the generic ballot question, which shows voters prefer Democrats to control Congress by a margin of 48% to 43%.<\/p>\n<p>Trump denounced the poll as &ldquo;FAKE&rdquo; on social media, but the <em>New York Times<\/em>-Siena College poll generally showed him as competitive throughout the 2024 campaign and was one of the early public polls that captured former President Joe Biden&rsquo;s weakness. Biden also dismissed the pollsters after Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections. The newspaper&rsquo;s current finding on Trump&rsquo;s job approval rating, sitting at 40%, isn&rsquo;t terribly inconsistent with the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/approval\/donald-trump\/approval-rating\"><em>RealClearPolitics <\/em>average<\/a> of 42.5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This doesn&rsquo;t necessarily mean the Trump-induced realignment, in which the GOP becomes more of a multiracial, working-class party, is over, however.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As political analyst Ryan James Girdusky <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/natpop.substack.com\/p\/ny-times-poll-is-the-realignment\">shows<\/a>, the Democrats&rsquo; leads among key demographic groups still lag 2018 levels and, in some cases, 2020 levels.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Democrats won more than 40 House seats and the speakership in the 2018 midterm elections during Trump&rsquo;s first term. That was the last true wave election, and it was a blue one. Biden was elected in 2020, but the battleground states were close, and Republicans actually gained House seats, though not the majority.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;These are good numbers for Democrats; there&rsquo;s no denying that if the election were held today, they&rsquo;d almost certainly win back the House of Representatives,&rdquo; Girdusky writes. &ldquo;However, these are not 2018 numbers in the crosstabs, not among Latinos, blacks, or young people.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>A significant advantage the Democrats have is that their part of the political realignment, the shift of college-educated white voters toward their party, has more or less already happened and withstood the shocks of the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/inflation\/\">highest inflation in decades<\/a>, the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/border-crisis\/\">Biden border crisis<\/a>, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-trumps-2024-coalition-coming-apart-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections\/\" title=\"Is ...s ... apart ahead of the ...?\">violent crime surge experienced<\/a> in some major metropolitan areas. The 2024 Harris campaign, with Gov. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/tim-walz\/\">Tim Walz<\/a> (D-MN) <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/4407834\/spectacular-failure-tim-walz-democrat-minnesota-day-care-fraud\/\">as her running mate<\/a>, leaned too heavily on these voters to the exclusion of everyone else.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The shift of culturally conservative and working-class nonwhites toward the Republicans is still in the process of happening. Some of these voters have reverted back to the Democrats as they give Trump low marks for his handling of the economy a year into his second term.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Maybe the part of the realignment that benefits Republicans could still be reversed. But if it remains contingent on a binary choice election, which presidential races typically are, rather than the referendum on the incumbent usually seen in midterm elections, Democrats haven&rsquo;t really changed or moderated their cultural positions.<\/p>\n<p>The past year has seen Trump <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/white-house\/4428814\/trump-foreign-focus-could-turn-off-voters-worried-economy\/\">heavily focused on foreign affairs, <\/a>while voters have remained pessimistic about the economy and the cost of living.<\/p>\n<p>Trump&rsquo;s team appears to recognize the problem. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/alaynatreene\/status\/2013942077990518852?s=20&amp;cid=eml_npd_nws_nbcp_01222026&amp;tpcc=eml_npd_nws_nbcp_01222026\">told reporters <\/a>that the president would travel less internationally in the coming months as he ramps up for the midterm elections. &ldquo;I&rsquo;m going to be doing a lot of campaign traveling,&rdquo; Trump confirmed on Air Force One the next day. Vice President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/jd-vance\/\">JD Vance<\/a> traveled to Minnesota on Thursday to defend the administration&rsquo;s immigration enforcement and otherwise emphasize domestic issues.<\/p>\n<p>Then again, Wiles made her remarks en route to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and the dominant news story of the past week has been Trump&rsquo;s efforts to acquire Greenland.<\/p>\n<p>Midterm elections are historically challenging for the party in power. But the Democrats rebounded from terrible midterm election results in 1994 and 2010 to win the next presidential election, and Republicans might have done the same after 2018 if the pandemic hadn&rsquo;t happened.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/policy\/foreign-policy\/4424445\/trump-board-of-peace-gaza-countries-invited\/\"><strong>WHO WAS INVITED TO BE ON TRUMP&rsquo;S &lsquo;BOARD OF PEACE&rsquo;?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Maybe 2024 was the ceiling for Republican support among specific demographics, but the floor is also much higher than it used to be,&rdquo; Girdusky concludes.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans will need to do a lot better to defy history this year, but the multiracial working-class party may not be over yet. Perhaps it hasn&rsquo;t begun.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is Trump&#8217;s 2024 coalition unraveling before midterms?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2659,"featured_media":2549007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AP24275750726184.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651,538],"tags":[34250,66123,32085,40674,43846],"class_list":["post-2549006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","category-washington-examiner","tag-midterm-elections","tag-party-divisions","tag-republican-party","tag-trump-2024","tag-voter-trends"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AP24275750726184.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2549006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2659"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2549006"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2549006\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2549010,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2549006\/revisions\/2549010"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2549007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2549006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2549006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2549006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}