{"id":2538283,"date":"2026-01-15T19:31:02","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T00:31:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nonpartisan-index-hands-democrats-new-years-present-with-18-rating-shifts\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T19:33:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T00:33:54","slug":"nonpartisan-index-hands-democrats-new-years-present-with-18-rating-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nonpartisan-index-hands-democrats-new-years-present-with-18-rating-shifts\/","title":{"rendered":"Nonpartisan index hands Democrats New Year&#8217;s present with 18 rating shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fnonpartisan-index-hands-democrats-new-years-present-with-18-rating-shifts%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2538283&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A Cook Political Report analysis moved 18 competitive House seats toward Democrats, boosting their chances of retaking the House in 2026. Analysts cite several factors: President Trump&#8217;s middling approval (about 42%), Democratic off-year wins in 2025, and a shortage of strong Republican challengers in many districts.<\/p>\n<p>Key points:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Several districts shifted from &#8220;likely&#8221; to &#8220;solid Democrat,&#8221; frequently enough as incumbents face weak or fragmented GOP fields.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Some previously Republican-leaning seats &#8211; notably those held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) &#8211; are now rated toss-ups and could be decisive given Speaker Mike Johnson&#8217;s narrow two-seat GOP majority.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Other seats (e.g., Gabe Vasquez, Laura Gillen) moved from toss-up to lean Democrat.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Analysts highlight a decline in Hispanic support for republicans after 2024&#8217;s surge for trump; polling shows growing Hispanic dissatisfaction with his immigration and economic policies, creating uncertainty in swing districts where many Latino voters are independent.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Local Republican primaries look likely to be competitive in several districts,wich could drain resources and hamper general-election unity.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Cook estimates a strong night for Democrats would be about a 20-seat flip; while winning every seat Trump won\/lost by 5 points or less would yield about 14 pickups &#8211; enough for a majority but short of a &#8220;wave&#8221; like 2018.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Broader polling (Marist-PBS-NPR) showed Democrats with a 14-point generic ballot lead in November, the largest advantage in eight years.<\/p>\n<p>the rating shifts reflect a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/here-are-the-issues-newt-gingrich-says-are-crucial-to-gop-midterm-victory\/\" title=\"Here are the issues Newt Gingrich says are crucial to GOP midterm victory\">changing political environment<\/a> that currently favors Democrats in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/voters-in-virginia-and-new-jersey-send-a-message-its-trumps-economy-now\/\" title=\"... in Virginia and New Jersey send a message: It\u2019s ...\u2019s economy now\">multiple competitive districts<\/a>, though outcomes will depend on candidate quality, turnout, and how Hispanic and independent voters behave in 2026.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">House Democrats&rsquo; hopes buoyed after nonpartisan index shifts 18 seats toward blue<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_2474269\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democrats\/\">Democrats<\/a>&rsquo; chances of recapturing the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/house-of-representatives\/\">House<\/a> majority in the <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-elections\/\">2026 elections<\/a> are increasing, thanks to President <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a>&rsquo;s approval rating, off-year election results, and lack of strong <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republicans\/\">Republican<\/a> candidates.<\/p>\n<p>An analysis from the nonpartisan <em>Cook Political Report <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/userimg-assets.customeriomail.com\/images\/client-env-141072\/1768488360986_J2YFq-the-cook-political-report-house-rating-changes-rgb_01KF11XQ4TV6NA8RP6AMPG1YVW.pdf?utm_medium=email_action&amp;utm_source=customer.io\">shifted 18 competitive seats<\/a> toward Democrats. Several moved from &ldquo;lean Democrat&rdquo; to &ldquo;solid Democrat.&rdquo;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"recommended-stories\">\n<h2>Recommended Stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4420322\/candidates-flock-bid-marjorie-taylor-greene-house-seat-georgia\/\">Twenty-two candidates flock to make bids for Marjorie Taylor Greene&#8217;s House seat<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4420004\/teamsters-backs-dan-goldman-over-brad-lander-incumbent-campaign-launch\/\">Teamsters backs Goldman over Lander after incumbent launched campaign<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4420222\/ice-deputy-director-resigns-run-congress-ohio\/\">ICE deputy director resigns to run for Congress in Ohio<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>But shifts for other seats, such as those held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) are indicative of changes in the opinion of Republicans.<\/p>\n<p>Erin Covey, a CPR House analyst, said in an interview that the shifts are based on the changes in the political environment, which a <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >year ago hadn&#038;rsquo<\/a>;t been swayed by legislative actions taken in Congress, while Trump&rsquo;s approval rating was relatively untested.<\/p>\n<p>But Democratic election wins in 2025 have become a &ldquo;good harbinger&rdquo; of Democratic voters being more motivated to turn out in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>One of the seats that shifted from &ldquo;likely&rdquo; to &ldquo;solid&rdquo; was the district represented by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY). He was one of several where former Vice President Kamala Harris did worse than the congressional incumbents in 2024, so the analysts kept his and many others&rsquo; seats at &ldquo;likely&rdquo; to see which way the wind blew.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We weren&rsquo;t saying that, like, folks like Pat Ryan would necessarily be vulnerable in 2026,&rdquo; Covey said. &ldquo;It was just like, well, this is a district that Harris only won by three points. We don&rsquo;t really know what the environment is going to look like.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>She noted that in several &ldquo;likely,&rdquo; now &ldquo;solid Democrat&rdquo; seats, most of the Democratic incumbents have not drawn a strong Republican challenger.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;So, we felt like these were races that warranted just moving into the &lsquo;solid&rsquo; category,&rdquo; Covey said. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not even like we&rsquo;re saying these districts were competitive before; it&rsquo;s more that we don&rsquo;t think that there&rsquo;s a real potential for them to become competitive at this point.&rdquo;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>However, races like Kaptur&rsquo;s and Gonzalez&rsquo;s could decide the fate of the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) currently has a two-seat majority, which is <span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">increasingly being tested by&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/house\/4417824\/mike-johnson-gop-revolt-workforce-bill\/\">attendance problems<\/a>&nbsp;stemming from<\/span> campaigns, medical emergencies, and even death.<\/p>\n<p>Kaptur and Gonzalez&rsquo;s seats were rated &ldquo;lean Republican,&rdquo; but are now considered &ldquo;toss-up.&rdquo; Seats held by Reps. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) and Laura Gillen (D-NY) shifted from a &ldquo;toss-up&rdquo; to &ldquo;lean Democrat.&rdquo;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Part of that reason, Covey said, is due to a drop in Hispanic support for Republicans. Hispanics and other key blue voting blocs <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/3220004\/trump-expanded-support-hispanic-latino-voters-exit-polling\/\">trended toward<\/a> Trump significantly in the 2024 election. In 2024, Trump received 43% of Hispanic support, up from 35% in the 2020 election.<\/p>\n<p>Trump&rsquo;s overall approval rating <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/survey-research\/cpr-polltracker\/trump-trendlines\">sits at 42%<\/a> as of Thursday. And polling from the Pew Research Center in November found Hispanic adults are growing <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/race-and-ethnicity\/2025\/11\/24\/majorities-of-latinos-disapprove-of-trump-and-his-policies-on-immigration-economy\/\">increasingly unhappy<\/a> with the Trump administration over his economic and immigration policies, as the president continues to levy tariffs and increase deportations of illegal immigrants.<\/p>\n<p>About two-thirds of Hispanic adults overall disapproved of the president&rsquo;s approach to immigration, while 61% said his economic policies have made conditions worse, according to the poll.<\/p>\n<p>Covey said it&rsquo;s still too early to tell how Hispanic voters will vote in 2026, but the 2025 results in New Jersey and Virginia resulted in &ldquo;quite a big reversion&rdquo; away from supporting Republicans. She noted that many Latino voters are independents, which could give members in swing districts an edge.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not like these are hyper partisans in one way or the other,&rdquo; the analyst said. &ldquo;And a lot of the new voters that Trump brought out in 2024, these were not folks who had been reliable Republican voters at all. And so it&rsquo;s just like the uncertainty around them gives Democrats in some of these places, particularly someone like this. I think it&rsquo;s always a lot more wiggle room than a Democrat in a bit more less-elastic district.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Kaptur, in particular, is one of a few toss-up incumbents who have a talent for holding onto her competitive seat. She narrowly won her seat by less than 1% in 2024. She was presumed to have her work cut out for her this year, with her seat shifting to &ldquo;lean Republican&rdquo; last year due to successful redistricting efforts in Ohio.<\/p>\n<p>But the seat is back to being a toss-up, largely because the Republican field is growing. Derrick Merrin, her 2024 challenger, is launching a rematch, and Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem is also vying for the Republican nomination.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On Thursday, hours before the Cook Political Report ratings came out, former deputy director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement Madison Sheahan announced she would leave her agency role and <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4420222\/ice-deputy-director-resigns-run-congress-ohio\/\">run for Kaptur&rsquo;s seat<\/a> as a Republican.<\/p>\n<p>Covey said Sheahan&rsquo;s entrance did not impact the seat&rsquo;s shift in ratings, but she said it does add to the problem the GOP will have this cycle in Kaptur and many other seats: Republicans don&rsquo;t have a strong GOP challenger to coalesce behind.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It means that this primary, I think, is going to be more competitive, and you&rsquo;re going to see Republicans spending money, having to go after each other, just because it&rsquo;s not like there&rsquo;s a clear front-runner here,&rdquo; Covey said.<\/p>\n<p>Data shows that while Democrats are on a high after their wins last year, they cannot just ride a hypothetical blue wave to victory. Covey said a good night for Democrats would be flipping 20 seats, with the party unlikely to reach the 40-seat figure it achieved in 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/4420322\/candidates-flock-bid-marjorie-taylor-greene-house-seat-georgia\/\"><strong>TWENTY-TWO CANDIDATES FLOCK TO MAKE BIDS FOR MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE&rsquo;S SEAT<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In November, a Marist-PBS-NPR poll found that Democrats had a <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/11\/19\/nx-s1-5611088\/poll-democrats-republicans-trump-approval-inflation\">14-point lead on the generic ballot<\/a>, the largest advantage for control of Congress in eight years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If Democrats were to win every seat President Donald Trump won or lost by 5 points or less, that would only give the party a gain of 14 seats, per the <em>Cook Political Report. <\/em>That would be more than enough to take the majority, but it wouldn&rsquo;t be a &ldquo;wave election&rdquo; in the eyes of seasoned political pundits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nonpartisan index shifts 18 seats to Democrats<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2648,"featured_media":2538284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/100125_WEX_SHUTDOWN_JEFFRIES-66-e1761934126339.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[3685,6571,71069,5894,71070],"class_list":["post-2538283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-democrats","tag-elections","tag-nonpartisan-index","tag-politics","tag-rating-shifts"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/100125_WEX_SHUTDOWN_JEFFRIES-66-e1761934126339.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2538283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2648"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2538283"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2538283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2538291,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2538283\/revisions\/2538291"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2538284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2538283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2538283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2538283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}