{"id":2526936,"date":"2025-12-30T18:10:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T23:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/high-stakes-iowa-special-election-could-tip-senate-balance\/"},"modified":"2025-12-30T18:14:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T23:14:13","slug":"high-stakes-iowa-special-election-could-tip-senate-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/high-stakes-iowa-special-election-could-tip-senate-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"High-stakes Iowa special election could tip Senate balance"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fhigh-stakes-iowa-special-election-could-tip-senate-balance%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2526936&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/latest-poll-majority-of-americans-want-republican-party-to-control-the-senate-sean-hannity\/\" title=\"LATEST POLL: Majority of Americans Want Republican Party to Control the ... | Sean Hannity\">special election<\/a> in IowaS 16th Senate District pits Democrat Renee Hardman against Republican Lucas Loftin to fill the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/new-mexico-congressional-election-poses-early-test-for-democrats\/\" title=\"New Mexico Congressional Election Poses Early Test for ...\">seat left vacant<\/a> by the October death of Sen. Claire Celsi.Republicans are one seat shy of a two-thirds supermajority in the Iowa Senate; a GOP pickup would restore that threshold and enable veto overrides, special sessions, and confirmations without Democratic support. Democrats view the race as crucial to preventing that outcome and point to a roughly 3,300-voter registration edge for Democrats in the district, though holiday-week turnout could be unpredictable. The district has leaned Democratic in recent state contests; hardman emphasizes local achievements on taxes and housing, while Loftin runs on limited government and lower taxes. The contest is part of a series of high-stakes special elections in Iowa this year, with polls closing at 8 p.m. local time.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Iowa special election puts GOP Senate supermajority back in play<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_2458894\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/democrats\/\">Democrats <\/a>are fighting to preserve their final point of leverage in <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iowa\/\">Iowa&rsquo;s<\/a> Senate on Tuesday, as <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/republicans\/\">Republicans<\/a> stand one win away from a supermajority and near-total control of the chamber.<\/p>\n<p>Renee Hardman (D-IA) and Lucas Loftin (R-IA) are set to compete in a special election for Iowa Senate District 16, a seat left vacant after Democratic Sen. Claire Celsi died in October following undisclosed medical complications. First elected in 2019, Celsi had represented the district for over five years.<\/p>\n<div class=\"recommended-stories\">\n<h2>Recommended Stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4364861\/midterms-pennsylvania-politics-still-swinging\/\">Ahead of midterms, Pennsylvania politics still swinging<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4364699\/democrats-need-different-plan-from-2024-to-win-2026-joe-concha\/\">Democrats &#8216;need a plan&#8217; different from 2024 to win 2026: Joe Concha<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/congressional\/4364124\/trump-holds-out-key-texas-senate-endorsement\/\">Trump holds out on giving Cornyn key Texas Senate endorsement<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>A Republican pickup would restore the GOP&rsquo;s supermajority only months after Democrats briefly broke it in <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/3785469\/fluke-foreshadowing-what-democrats-special-election-wins-mean-2026\/\">an August special election<\/a>, giving Democrats 17 seats to Republicans&rsquo; 33 seats. Still, the balance shifted again after Celsi&rsquo;s death reduced the Democratic caucus to 16 seats.<\/p>\n<p>Securing a 34th vote would give the GOP two-thirds control of the chamber, allowing it to override gubernatorial vetoes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/they-will-be-arrested-gov-abbott-threatens-democrats-who-left-texas\/\" title=\"\u2018They Will Be Arrested\u2019: Gov. Abbott Threatens ... Who Left Texas\">call special sessions<\/a>, and confirm a governor&rsquo;s appointees without Democratic support.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A Democratic win Tuesday would keep Republicans short of a two-thirds supermajority, building on a streak of off-year wins and overperformances that have energized Democrats in Iowa and nationally. It would also require Republicans to secure at least one Democratic vote to confirm Gov. Kim Reynolds&rsquo;s nominees to state agencies, boards, and commissions.<\/p>\n<p>The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has framed Hardman&rsquo;s race as a &ldquo;must-win,&rdquo; citing the need to safeguard what it calls &ldquo;hard-won progress&rdquo; after Iowa joined five other states where Democrats have broken Republican legislative supermajorities in the past two years.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats hold a roughly <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/sos.iowa.gov\/elections\/pdf\/VRStatsArchive\/2025\/SSDec25.pdf\">3,300-voter <\/a>registration edge in the district, accounting for 37% of voters compared with Republicans&rsquo; 30%, though turnout in a holiday-week special election could be unpredictable. Approximately one-third of registered voters are unaffiliated or aligned with a party other than their own. Celsi first captured the 16th District in 2022, defeating a Republican opponent by about 16 points in the wake of redistricting. She expanded that margin dramatically last year, winning reelection by a margin of roughly 40 points against a Libertarian challenger.<\/p>\n<p>The district&rsquo;s political lean still favors Democrats. While President Donald Trump carried Iowa by 13 points last fall, then-Vice President Kamala Harris won Celsi&rsquo;s former district by 17 points, <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iowa-senate-special-election-supermajority-state-legislature-d0805f8f8b3132c53706674b3e7ee9b2\">according <\/a>to <em>The Associated Press.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Renee Hardman, the first Black woman elected to the West Des Moines City Council and the Democrats&rsquo; nominee in Tuesday&rsquo;s race, is campaigning on what she describes as a record of lowering property taxes and expanding access to affordable housing during her time on the council. Republican candidate Lucas Loftin, a longtime employee of environmental services firm Wright Service Corp., has centered his campaign on limited government and lower taxes.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats&rsquo; position in Iowa&rsquo;s legislature remains vulnerable beyond the Senate fight. Republicans dominate the state House, controlling 66 of the chamber&rsquo;s 100 seats, compared with Democrats&rsquo; 33, with one vacancy outstanding.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans also hold every federal office in Iowa, including all four U.S. House seats and both U.S. Senate seats. That landscape could shift in 2026, when Democrats are expected to mount a competitive bid for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/3783782\/catelin-drey-flip-iowa-state-senate-seat-supermajority\/\"><strong>CATELIN DREY FLIPS IOWA STATE SENATE SEAT TO BREAK GOP SUPERMAJORITY<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Democrats notched two <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >notable special election upsets earlier<\/a> this year. In January, Mike Zimmer <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/iowacapitaldispatch.com\/2025\/01\/29\/democrat-mike-zimmer-wins-iowa-senate-special-election\/\">captured an eastern Iowa Senate seat<\/a> in a district that had overwhelmingly backed President Donald Trump in 2024. In August, Catelin Drey <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/state\/3783782\/catelin-drey-flip-iowa-state-senate-seat-supermajority\/\">flipped an open seat<\/a> in northwestern Iowa, breaking the GOP&rsquo;s supermajority and extending Democrats&rsquo; run of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/fluke-or-foreshadowing-what-democrats-special-election-wins-mean-for-2026\/\" title=\"Fluke or foreshadowing? What ...&#039; ... wins mean for 2026\">special election wins<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tuesday will mark Iowa&rsquo;s sixth special election of the year, three in the state Senate and three in the House. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iowa special election could give GOP supermajority<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2657,"featured_media":2526937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AP25360758933567.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[69748,5626,37635,37103,33980],"class_list":["post-2526936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-balance-of-power","tag-iowa","tag-national-politics","tag-special-election","tag-u-s-senate"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AP25360758933567.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2526936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2657"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2526936"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2526936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2526940,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2526936\/revisions\/2526940"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2526937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2526936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2526936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2526936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}