{"id":2504966,"date":"2025-10-30T18:07:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T22:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-suggest-mamdanis-election-chances-hinge-on-one-factor-curtis-sliwa\/"},"modified":"2025-10-30T18:09:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T22:09:57","slug":"polls-suggest-mamdanis-election-chances-hinge-on-one-factor-curtis-sliwa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-suggest-mamdanis-election-chances-hinge-on-one-factor-curtis-sliwa\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls Suggest Mamdani&#8217;s Election Chances Hinge on One Factor: Curtis Sliwa"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpolls-suggest-mamdanis-election-chances-hinge-on-one-factor-curtis-sliwa%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2504966&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Recent polling in the new York City mayoral race shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a self-described socialist, holding strong leads over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and long-shot Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani&#8217;s lead varies across polls but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/heres-5-action-items-conservatives-should-focus-on-to-better-their-communities-and-country\/\" title=\"5 Action Items for Conservatives to Improve Communities and Country\">remains critically important<\/a>, with some surveys showing him ahead by as much as 25 points. His support has notably increased among Black voters and younger demographics, while Cuomo has lost ground among Black voters since September.<\/p>\n<p>Curtis Sliwa, despite pressure from some Republicans to withdraw and consolidate support around Cuomo, insists on staying in the race, potentially influencing the final outcome. Pollsters suggest that Sliwa&#8217;s voters tend to prefer Cuomo as their second choice,meaning sliwa&#8217;s presence may split the vote,benefiting Mamdani. If Sliwa were to drop out, polls indicate Mamdani&#8217;s lead over Cuomo would narrow substantially.<\/p>\n<p>Campaign dynamics remain volatile, with Cuomo&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >team emphasizing early voting trends favoring older voters<\/a> and downplaying poll predictions. Mamdani has faced scrutiny for his past calls to defund the police, although he has softened some rhetoric. Former President Donald Trump has commented on Sliwa&#8217;s chances, noting they are slim, and indicated Cuomo&#8217;s chances improve onyl slightly if Sliwa exits the race. Cuomo himself has urged voters to support Mamdani rather than Sliwa, claiming Sliwa cannot win.<\/p>\n<p>the race is tightening as Election Day approaches, with Sliwa playing a critical spoiler role; Mamdani currently leads but the final result could be shaped by whether Sliwa remains in the contest.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani&rsquo;s chances of beating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo in New York City&rsquo;s mayoral race appear to be strongly correlated with the level of support for long-shot Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, according to a spate of recent polling.<\/p>\n<p>Two polls released Thursday show that <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/10\/24\/scott-jennings-doesnt-fall-for-cnn-attempt-downplay-mamdani-picture-terrorist-co-conspirator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mamdani<\/a>, a self-avowed socialist, enjoys wide leads over <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/06\/03\/andrew-cuomo-regret-resigning-new-york-governor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cuomo<\/a>, the former Democratic Governor of New York, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/07\/17\/slapping-fannies-killing-grannies-curtis-silwa-says-cuomo-should-drop-out-not-him\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sliwa<\/a> in the city&rsquo;s mayoral race.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, a&nbsp;Suffolk University <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/10\/27\/zohran-mamdani-andrew-cuomo-suffolk-university-poll-new-york-city-mayor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">poll<\/a> released Monday &mdash; in which Sliwa polled lower than in the two more recent polls &mdash; found that Mamdani&rsquo;s lead over Cuomo was only 10 points.<\/p>\n<p>An Emerson College Polling\/PIX11\/The Hill <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/new-york-city-mayor-and-new-jersey-governor-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">survey<\/a> released Thursday found that Mamdani secured a 25-point lead over Cuomo, 50 percent to 25 percent, while 21 percent of voters backed Sliwa and 4 percent were undecided.<\/p>\n<p>Compared to a separate Emerson College <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/nyc-2025-mayor\/\">poll<\/a> released Sept. 10, support for Mamdani in the mayoral election rose by seven percentage points, from 43 percent to 50 percent.<\/p>\n<p>  <script> console.log(\"A\/B Test Video Player\"); \/\/ Helper function to set a cookie function setVideoCookie(name, value, days) {     var expires=\"\";     if (days) {         var date=new Date();         date.setTime(date.getTime() + (days*24*60*60*1000)); 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    stnPlayer(); } <\/script> <\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics, increasing his margin among Black voters since last month, from 50 percent to 71 percent, whereas Cuomo dropped ten points among black voters since September,&rdquo; Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69 percent of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37 percent of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31 percent support Cuomo and 28 percent [Sliwa].&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, a Marist University <a href=\"https:\/\/maristpoll.marist.edu\/polls\/nyc-mayors-race-october-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">poll<\/a> published Thursday showed Mamdani leading with 48 percent support. Cuomo gained 32 percent of the vote, Sliwa received 16 percent support, and 3 percent reported they were undecided.<\/p>\n<p>Sliwa has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/10\/20\/politics\/curtis-sliwa-nyc-mayoral-race\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">reportedly<\/a> been facing increasing pressure from some Republicans to drop out of the New York City mayoral race in an effort to improve Cuomo&rsquo;s chances of beating Mamdani in the election.<\/p>\n<p>Sliwa has doubled down on his plans to stay in the race until Election Day, saying during an Oct. 20 <a href=\"https:\/\/radio.foxnews.com\/2025\/10\/20\/sliwa-s-his-defiant-message-for-cuomo-im-in-it-to-win-it\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">interview<\/a> with Fox Across America that he would rather be &ldquo;impaled&rdquo; than drop his mayoral bid.<\/p>\n<p>If Sliwa were to drop out of the contest, Mamdani would lead by only six points, receiving the backing of 51 percent of likely voters, compared with 44 percent for Cuomo, according to the Marist poll.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, 2 percent of voters said they would vote for someone else, and 3 percent were undecided, the poll found.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;My message to your readers is that a vote for Curtis Sliwa is a vote for Zohran Mamdani,&rdquo; Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo&rsquo;s campaign, told the DCNF in an ed statement.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;For weeks this has been a tightening race with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pollster-predicts-historic-turnout-in-north-carolina-georgia-and-michigan-for-trump-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"...ter predicts historic turnout in North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan for Trump ... Washington Examiner\">early voting showing<\/a> a surge of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-narrowly-leads-harris-in-north-carolina-aarp-poll-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Trump narrowly ... Harris in North Carolina: AARP poll ... Washington Examiner\">older voters &#038;mdash<\/a>; the exact inverse of the primary &mdash; and turnout on track for between 1.9 and 2 million. With those dynamics, every poll out there is essentially meaningless from this point out.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.suffolk.edu\/-\/media\/suffolk\/documents\/academics\/research-at-suffolk\/suprc\/polls\/other-states\/2025\/10_27_2025_new_york_city_press_release.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=29E66C2E3D25A148940F2E3BB98DAC3E5A7C6D6F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">statement<\/a> Monday, when Suffolk&rsquo;s poll was released, that he thinks Sliwa could have &ldquo;an outsized impact&rdquo; on the outcome of the Big Apple&rsquo;s upcoming mayoral election.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome. That person isn&rsquo;t Mayor Eric Adams, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Senator Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It&rsquo;s Republican Curtis Sliwa,&rdquo; Paleologos said. &ldquo;And when asked for their second choice, those voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani 36 percent-2 percent.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Mamdani previously <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ZohranKMamdani\/status\/1277414510131916801\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">called for<\/a> the New York City Police Department to be defunded, referring to the department as &ldquo;racist, anti-queer and a major threat to public safety.&rdquo; The Democratic socialist has since <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/10\/17\/zohran-mamdani-defund-police-tweets-andrew-cuomo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">downplayed<\/a> some of his previous anti-police rhetoric.<\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump notably <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/10\/22\/us-news\/trump-diagnoses-curtis-sliwas-chances-of-becoming-nyc-mayor-while-nudging-him-to-drop-out\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told reporters<\/a>&nbsp;on Oct. 22 that if Sliwa dropped out of the Big Apple&rsquo;s mayoral race, &ldquo;maybe Cuomo would have a little bit of a chance, but not much.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;He&rsquo;s [Sliwa is] not going to win &mdash; and not looking too good for Cuomo, either,&rdquo; Trump added in his comments to the reporters at the time.<\/p>\n<p>Cuomo claimed on Oct. 17 that Sliwa &ldquo;cannot win,&rdquo; adding that if &ldquo;you vote for Curtis, save yourself the time, and vote for Mamdani,&rdquo; The New York Times <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/10\/17\/nyregion\/cuomo-sliwa-mamdani.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, Cuomo <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/10\/29\/andrew-cuomo-stephen-a-smith-zohran-mamdani\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">suggested<\/a> to SiriusXM host Stephen A. Smith during a Wednesday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=1wfazxcBrZM&amp;t=137s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">interview<\/a> on &ldquo;Straight Shooter with Stephen A.&rdquo; that if Mamdani is victorious in New York City&rsquo;s Nov. 4 general election, it would be &ldquo;the death of the Democratic Party.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The Emerson College poll was conducted Oct. 25 to Oct. 27. The overall sample of NYC very likely voters\/those who have already voted, n=640, has a credibility interval, similar to a survey&rsquo;s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>The Marist University survey of 1,134 New York City adults was conducted Oct. 24 to Oct. 28. Results for all adults (n=1,134) are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<div class=\"disclaimer\">\n<p><em>All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/union-membership-plummets-to-record-low\/\" title=\"Union Membership Plummets to Record Low\">legitimate news publisher<\/a> that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter&rsquo;s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/mailto:licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org\">licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> \t     \t\t\t\t\t\t     \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> \t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani&#8217;s likelihood of defeating independent Andrew Cuomo in New York City&#8217;s mayoral race seems closely linked to the support level for long-shot Republican Curtis Sliwa, based on several recent polls. Two surveys released Thursday indicate that Mamdani, a declared socialist, holds significant leads over Cuomo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2504967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Curtis-Sliwa-NYC-election.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[57915,3728,56552,33017,15638],"class_list":["post-2504966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-curtis-sliwa","tag-election","tag-mamdani","tag-political-analysis","tag-polls"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Curtis-Sliwa-NYC-election.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2504966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2504966"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2504966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2504970,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2504966\/revisions\/2504970"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2504967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2504966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2504966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2504966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}