{"id":2497490,"date":"2025-10-10T12:25:01","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T16:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polymarket-odds-skyrocketed-for-machado-before-nobel-prize-win\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T12:26:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T16:26:46","slug":"polymarket-odds-skyrocketed-for-machado-before-nobel-prize-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polymarket-odds-skyrocketed-for-machado-before-nobel-prize-win\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket odds skyrocketed for Machado before Nobel Prize win"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpolymarket-odds-skyrocketed-for-machado-before-nobel-prize-win%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2497490&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In the hours leading up to Venezuelan opposition leader Mar\u00eda Corina Machado&#8217;s unexpected Nobel Peace Prize win, betting odds on the prediction market Polymarket surged dramatically, rising from about 3% to over 70%. This sharp increase suggested that some users had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/rush-to-judgement-three-crucial-questions-remain-unanswered-about-capitol-siege\/\" title=\"Rush to judgement? Three crucial questions remain unanswered about Capitol siege\">information ahead<\/a> of the official announcement. Before Machado became the favorite, former President Donald Trump and Yulia Navalnaya were considered top contenders. Several bettors, including new <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >users placing sizeable wagers<\/a>, profited significantly from the correctly predicted outcome, leading to speculation about insider knowledge influencing the bets. Another platform, Kalshi, also saw a surge in support for Machado shortly before the announcement. Machado dedicated her award to Trump and the Venezuelan people, emphasizing the importance of international support for democracy in her country. The incident has drawn attention to the potential for insider trading in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/stephen-moore-america-needs-political-prediction-markets\/\" title=\"Stephen Moore: America Needs Political Prediction ...s\">prediction markets<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Polymarket odds skyrocketed for Maria Corina Machado in hours before Nobel Peace Prize win<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_2368325\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize award announcement, some supporters were holding out hope that President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Donald Trump<\/a> would secure the win. Polymarket users had a different feeling.<\/p>\n<p>Venezuelan opposition leader Mar&iacute;a Corina Machado <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/3845454\/venezuela-opposition-leader-maria-corina-machado-awarded-nobel-peace-prize\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">received a surge in betting<\/a> in the hours before she won the prize, her odds taking off from around 3% at 6:00 p.m. Thursday to as high as 73.5% around 8 p.m.<\/p>\n<div class=\"recommended-stories\">\n<h2>Recommended Stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/3845512\/blackouts-envelop-ukraine-russia-targets-energy-infrastructure\/\">Blackouts envelop Ukraine as Russia targets energy infrastructure<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/3845462\/gaza-ceasefire-takes-effect-ending-fighting-after-two-years\/\">Gaza ceasefire takes effect, ending fighting after over two years<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/3845171\/israeli-cabinet-plan-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-release\/\">Israeli Cabinet approves Trump plan for Gaza ceasefire and hostage release<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>It&rsquo;s unclear what caused the odds to tilt in her favor. Machado&rsquo;s odds to win stayed in the high 60s, sitting at around 70% right before her win was announced around 5 a.m. Friday. Before the odds leaned in her favor, Trump and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of former Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, were favored for the award.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-kamala-harris-is-eight-months-into-being-vp-and-already-trying-to-save-her-political-career\/\" title=\"ANALYSIS: Kamala Harris Is Eight Months Into Being VP, And Already Trying To Save Her Political Career\">betting market<\/a> observed that its users had the news before the announcement. &ldquo;Once again, Polymarket had the news more than 12 hours before it was announced,&rdquo; Polymarket said in a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Polymarket\/status\/1976601734396199037\">post on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Polymarket\/status\/1976604249057640770\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">humorously said<\/a> that Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, could have bet on the market before he told Machado.<\/p>\n<p>Machado&rsquo;s win led to a payday for some users. <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/profile\/%40dirtycup?tab=activity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">One first-time user<\/a> put thousands toward a Machado win on Thursday night, cashing out around $30,000 Friday morning.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/profile\/%40madurowilllose?tab=positions\">Another user<\/a> put about $30,000 on a Machado win and about $24,000 on a loss by Sudan&rsquo;s Emergency Response Rooms. The user was also new, with no other bets, and made about $18,000 on their wagers. Their username is an apparent reference to Venezuelan leader Nicol&aacute;s Maduro, whom Machado is leading her opposition against.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/profile\/0xa430506774f9efaf39903ee7e0db1351f66891ca?tab=positions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">User 6<\/a>741 got ahead of the curve with a $921 bet at 6:42 p.m. ET Friday night, when Machado&rsquo;s odds sat between 3% and 7% to win, with no other prior betting history. Machado then became the betting leader at around 6:50 p.m. That user would profit about $47,000 on just markets surrounding the Nobel Peace Prize, with nearly $120,000 on Machado alone.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s unclear who the users are or how they felt empowered to place large bets on Machado. There was more than $2 million in trading volume around Machado, second only to Trump with nearly $14 million.<\/p>\n<p>Some speculated the bets were from users with insider information. <\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets,&rdquo; Harvard economics professor and former Obama administration Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jason Furman <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jasonfurman\/status\/1976608398079610900\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote on X <\/a>about Machado&rsquo;s win on Polymarket. &ldquo;I now have an answer.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket wasn&rsquo;t alone in predicting Machado&rsquo;s win.<\/p>\n<p>A different betting market, Kalshi, saw a surge in <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxnobelpeace\/nobel-peace-prize\/kxnobelpeace-25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">betting around midnight <\/a>on Friday. Machado&rsquo;s odds went from 1% to over 50%.<\/p>\n<p>Machado dedicated her win to Trump and the &ldquo;suffering people of Venezuela&rdquo; on Friday morning.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/world\/3843828\/what-to-know-most-controversial-nobel-peace-prize-wins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WINS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy,&rdquo; she <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MariaCorinaYA\/status\/1976642376119549990\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote on X<\/a>. &ldquo;I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> contacted Polymarket for comment, but received no response.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket odds surged for Mar\u00eda Corina Machado before Nobel win<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2497491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AP25283332522690.jpg?w=696","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[19794,58314,10904,59471,44418],"class_list":["post-2497490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-machado","tag-nobel-prize","tag-odds","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AP25283332522690.jpg?w=696","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2497490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2497490"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2497490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2497494,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2497490\/revisions\/2497494"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2497491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2497490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2497490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2497490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}