{"id":2462689,"date":"2025-07-16T20:19:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-17T00:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/cnn-gives-dems-harsh-reality-check-for-midterms-by-comparing-polling-from-06-and-18\/"},"modified":"2025-07-16T20:20:15","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T00:20:15","slug":"cnn-gives-dems-harsh-reality-check-for-midterms-by-comparing-polling-from-06-and-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/cnn-gives-dems-harsh-reality-check-for-midterms-by-comparing-polling-from-06-and-18\/","title":{"rendered":"CNN Gives Dems Harsh Reality Check for Midterms By Comparing Polling From &#8217;06 and &#8217;18"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcnn-gives-dems-harsh-reality-check-for-midterms-by-comparing-polling-from-06-and-18%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2462689&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>CNN data analyst Harry Enten provided an update on the outlook for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/johnson-not-seeking-3rd-term-in-2022-is-probably-my-preference\/\" title=\"Johnson: Not seeking 3rd term in 2022 is probably my preference\">upcoming midterm elections<\/a>, highlighting concerns for House Democrats and optimism for Republicans. Historically, the party holding the White House tends to lose seats in midterms, but current indicators suggest the typical wave against Democrats may not materialize this time. Compared to similar points before the 2006 and 2018 midterms-both favorable to democrats-this cycle shows Democrats lagging in <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" ><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/siena-poll-majority-of-new-yorkers-want-cuomo-replaced\/\" title=\"Siena Poll: Majority of New Yorkers Want Cuomo Replaced\">generic ballot<\/a> leads<\/a> and seat pickups. Additionally, Republicans currently hold an advantage in the number of &#8220;solid&#8221; or favorable seats, contrasting with previous years when Democrats were ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Enten emphasizes that the 2026 election cycle resembles 2024 more than past Democratic wave years, with Republicans maintaining a narrow majority in the House and favorable polls. Republican party affiliation and approval ratings have also increased slightly, while Democratic approval has declined. Enten advises caution to those expecting a Republican loss in the house, affirming that Republicans remain competitive and &#8220;very much in the game.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>CNN data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday gave House Democrats reason for concern and Republicans reason for hope as they look toward next year&rsquo;s midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p>The midterms for the party that holds the White House have traditionally <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/dems-internal-polling-shows-voters-think-focused-wrong-things-lead-22-disaster\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">been problematic<\/a>, often resulting in a wave of victories for the other side, such as for the Republicans in 1994 and 2010, and for the Democrats in 2006 and 2018, but such a scenario so far does not appear to be shaping up.<\/p>\n<p>Enten noted, &ldquo;The Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/bidens-approval-down-in-multiple-swing-districts-according-to-gop-aligned-poll\/\" title=\"Biden\u2019s Approval Down In Multiple Swing Districts, According To GOP-Aligned Poll\">generic congressional ballot<\/a>.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>In July 2005 and July 2017, they held seven-point leads with the midterms a little over a year away.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/cnn-chief-data-analyst-astonished-see-democrats-historic-key-advantage-completely-disappeared-new-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enten <\/a>also looked back at a congressional district-by-district analysis at this point in the election cycle. In 2007, Democrats were on track to pick up seven seats, and in 2017, they were on track for 33 seats.<\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\tdocument.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\", function() { \t\t\t\t\tfunction loadScript(src) { \t\t\t\t\t\tconst script=document.createElement(\"script\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tscript.src=src; \t\t\t\t\t\tscript.async=true; \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.body.appendChild(script); \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\tfunction findPreviousParagraph(selector, x) { \t\t\t\t\t\tconst targetElement=document.querySelector(selector); \t\t\t\t\t\tif (!targetElement) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.warn(\"Target element not found.\"); \t\t\t\t\t\t\treturn null; \t\t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Get all <\/p>\n<p> elements in order as they appear in the document \t\t\t\t\t\tlet paragraphs=Array.from(document.querySelectorAll(\"p\"));  \t\t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Find the index of the last <\/p>\n<p> before the target element \t\t\t\t\t\tlet targetIndex=paragraphs.findIndex(p=> p.compareDocumentPosition(targetElement) & Node.DOCUMENT_POSITION_PRECEDING);  \t\t\t\t\t\tif (targetIndex===-1 || targetIndex <x) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.warn(\"Not enough paragraphs before the target element.\"); \t\t\t\t\t\t\treturn null; \t\t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\treturn paragraphs[targetIndex - x]; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Set up IntersectionObserver \t\t\t\t\tfunction observeElement(element) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif (!element) return;  \t\t\t\t\t\tconst observer=new IntersectionObserver( \t\t\t\t\t\t\t(entries)=> { \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tentries.forEach(entry=> { \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tif (entry.isIntersecting) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log(\"Paragraph is now visible:\", entry.target.textContent.trim()); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tloadScript(\"https:\/\/embed.sendtonews.com\/player3\/embedcode.js?fk=s28Az7AY\"); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tobserver.disconnect(); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t\t\t\t}, \t\t\t\t\t\t\t{ threshold: 0.5 } \/\/ Adjust threshold as needed \t\t\t\t\t\t);  \t\t\t\t\t\tobserver.observe(element); \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Find the 1st paragraph before #stnvideo and observe it \t\t\t\t\tlet paragraphToObserve=findPreviousParagraph(\"#stnvideo\", 2); \t\t\t\t\tobserveElement(paragraphToObserve); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>They actually netted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.presidency.ucsb.edu\/statistics\/data\/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">30 seats<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2018\/11\/06\/us\/elections\/results-dashboard-live.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">40 seats<\/a>, respectively, so a lot can still happen.<\/p>\n<p>But, Enten pointed out, while Republicans were behind Democrats going into the 2006 and 2018 midterms, this time they hold a 12-seat lead among those rated &ldquo;solid&rdquo; by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/ratings\/house-race-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cook Political Report<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 &amp; 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006\/2018 cycles.<\/p>\n<p>Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 &amp; 2018 at this pt. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CRgXukTjz6\">pic.twitter.com\/CRgXukTjz6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ForecasterEnten\/status\/1945492536836993510?\">July 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;This doesn&rsquo;t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2008,&rdquo; Enten said. &ldquo;At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does like either 2018 or 2006.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/senate-republicans-smash-fundraising-record-eye-popping-margin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Republicans<\/a> held the House in 2024, though the Democrats had a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-house.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">net gain<\/a> of two seats.<\/p>\n<p>The GOP currently has a <a href=\"https:\/\/pressgallery.house.gov\/member-data\/party-breakdown\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">220 to 212<\/a> majority, with three seats won by Democrats in November now vacant due to deaths in office.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans can only lose two seats and still maintain control of the chamber. Looking closer at the Cook analysis, the GOP leads the Democrats in those seats rated as solid, likely, or lean Republican, 211 to 204. There are 19 races rated as a toss-up.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/activists-failed-cnns-data-guru-awe-americas-response-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enten<\/a> concluded, &ldquo;For anyone who is writing the Republican House&rsquo;s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/655157\/gop-holds-edge-party-affiliation-third-straight-year.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gallup<\/a> reported in January that the GOP, for the third year in a row, held the edge in party affiliation.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991,&rdquo; the polling firm said.<\/p>\n<p>A Harvard <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/july-harvard-caps--harris-poll-opinions-on-big-beautiful-bill-split-with-47-of-voters-supporting-it-but-most-policies-have-majority-support-with-many-popular-tax-cuts-302504272.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CAPS\/Harris Poll<\/a> released Monday found that 40 percent of respondents approve of the Democratic Party, down from 42 percent in June.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Republican Party has a 48 percent approval rating, up one percentage point from last month.<\/p>\n<p>So the momentum, at this point, appears to be with the GOP.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> \t     \t\t\t\t\t\t     \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> \t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CNN data analyst Harry Enten shared on Wednesday that House Democrats have cause for worry while Republicans have reason to be optimistic as they prepare for next year&#8217;s midterm elections. Historically, the party in control of the White House faces challenges during midterms, often leading to significant gains for the opposition-like Republicans did in 1994 and 2010, and Democrats in 2006 and 2018. However, this pattern does not seem to be emerging this time. Enten pointed out that Democrats are currently trailing behind their positions from 2006 and 2018 regarding the generic congressional ballot. For example, in July of those years, Democrats held seven-point leads with just over a year until the midterms. He also reviewed district-level data from similar points in past election cycles: Democrats were projected to gain seven seats in 2007 and thirty-three seats in 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Although actual results exceeded those projections-with net gains of thirty seats in 2006 and forty seats in 2018-a lot can still change before next year&#8217;s elections. Notably, unlike previous cycles when Republicans lagged behind going into midterms, they now hold a twelve-seat advantage among districts rated &#8220;solid&#8221; by Cook Political Report.<\/p>\n<p>Enten emphasized that this election cycle doesn&#8217;t resemble the wave elections of 2006 or 2018 but instead looks more like the recent cycle of 2024 when Republicans retained control of the House despite slight Democratic gains. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority (220-212), with three Democratic-held seats vacant due to deaths.<\/p>\n<p>According to Cook&#8217;s ratings combining solid, likely, or lean Republican districts versus Democratic ones (211 vs.204), plus nineteen toss-up races remaining, Enten cautioned against prematurely writing off Republican chances: &#8220;This is a reality check; Republicans remain very much competitive.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Supporting this outlook are recent polls showing continued GOP strength: Gallup reported that for three consecutive years more Americans identify as Republican or lean Republican than Democrat or lean Democrat-a margin last seen only once before since modern polling began-in addition to rising approval ratings for the GOP compared with declining approval for Democrats according to Harvard CAPS\/Harris Poll data.<\/p>\n<p>Overall at this stage, momentum appears tilted toward Republicans heading into next year&#8217;s midterms<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2462690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Johnson-Jeffries.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[50623,3685,7408],"class_list":["post-2462689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-cnn-2","tag-democrats","tag-midterms"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Johnson-Jeffries.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2462689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2462689"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2462689\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2462693,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2462689\/revisions\/2462693"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2462690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2462689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2462689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2462689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}