{"id":2434525,"date":"2025-05-14T10:23:01","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T14:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gop-set-to-bust-iron-law-of-midterm-election-failure-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2025-05-14T10:25:04","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T14:25:04","slug":"gop-set-to-bust-iron-law-of-midterm-election-failure-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gop-set-to-bust-iron-law-of-midterm-election-failure-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"GOP set to bust \u2018iron law\u2019 of midterm election failure &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fgop-set-to-bust-iron-law-of-midterm-election-failure-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2434525&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses predictions regarding the 2026 midterm elections, suggesting that the typical &#8220;iron law&#8221; of midterm congressional elections-where the president&#8217;s party tends too lose seats-may not apply this time. Recent analyses indicate that Republicans could maintain control of both the House and the Senate, with some reports even suggesting they might gain seats.This potential success is attributed not to an upsurge in support for former President Donald Trump but rather to the declining image of the Democratic Party, which is experiencing internal conflicts. A study by the university of virginia&#8217;s Center for Politics indicates strong Republican confidence in retaining congressional control, contrasting with the Democrats&#8217; pessimistic outlook. Polling data shows Republican approval ratings higher than those of Democrats, and a majority of respondents believe the GOP will maintain majorities despite concerns about the economy and Trump&#8217;s approval rating. The analysis concludes that Democrats face important challenges, contributing to the skepticism about their ability to regain control in the upcoming elections.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">GOP set to bust &lsquo;iron law&rsquo; of midterm election failure<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1876035\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>The &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/considerthepolitics.com\/2022\/11\/01\/the-iron-law-of-successive-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">iron law<\/a>&rdquo; of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/midterm-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">midterm congressional elections<\/a> that the president&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/pelosi-slams-manchin-not-right-for-him-to-say-what-were-doing-is-contributing-to-the-inflation\/\" title=\"Pelosi Slams Manchin: \u2018Not Right\u2019 For Him \u2018To Say What We\u2019re Doing Is Contributing To The Inflation\u2019\">party loses seats<\/a> and control, if it has it, is about to be busted in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>A handful of new reports are suggesting that Republicans could retain control of the House and Senate, and even add seats in the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2026-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"> election.<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"recommended-stories\">\n<h2>Recommended Stories<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3409655\/gun-rights-second-amendment-gop-budget-bill\/\">Gun groups charge betrayal by GOP<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3409501\/trump-approval-rating-rasmussen-cygnal\/\">US &lsquo;right track&rsquo; rating is the highest ever under Trump<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3408843\/pope-leo-trump-politics-challenge-abc-news-martha-raddatz-liberal-media-scream\/\">ABC prays Pope Leo XIV will &#8216;counter&#8217; Trump: Liberal Media Scream<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>What&rsquo;s more, a GOP win would not be due to a surge in support for President Donald Trump, but because of the worsening image and standing of the Democratic Party, now caught up in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/3409323\/dnc-vice-chair-election-david-hogg-drama-divides-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">civil war<\/a> over how to fight the White House.<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s the finding in a new analysis of &ldquo;citizen forecasting,&rdquo; a polling style that has been &ldquo;highly predictive&rdquo; overseas, published by the University of Virginia&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/the-midterm-loss-rule-what-do-voters-expect-in-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Center for Politics<\/a> on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>It said that Republicans remain sky high about keeping control of Congress, while Democrats are in the dumps about their chances. If the predictions hold, it would be the first time since the 2002 midterm elections following 9\/11 that a president&rsquo;s party gained seats in both chambers, a feat not previously seen since 1934.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The predictions, as they stand, indicate that this &lsquo;iron law&rsquo; of incumbent party loss might be broken, with the Republicans keeping control of one, if not both, chambers,&rdquo; said the analysis from three political scientists.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Voters expect..more of the same. If this is a bit counterintuitive, perhaps Democrats should question their intuition? Debra Leiter, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LarrySabato?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@LarrySabato<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Center4Politics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Center4Politics<\/a> Bucking the trend of incumbent Midterm losses<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qACCJelXjU\">https:\/\/t.co\/qACCJelXjU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Syncopated Politics @syncpol.bsky.social (@SyncPol) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SyncPol\/status\/1922645662211912186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>    <\/p>\n<p>That jibes with new polling from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cygn.al\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Cygnal<\/a> showing congressional Republicans with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/majority-believe-border-situation-is-crisis-disapprove-of-how-biden-is-handling-it-cnn-poll\/\" title=\"Majority Believe Border Situation Is Crisis, Disapprove Of How Biden Is Handling It: CNN Poll\">higher approval rating<\/a> than Democrats at 49% to 44%.<\/p>\n<p>Cygnal&rsquo;s survey, shared with <em>Secrets<\/em>, also showed that Republicans and Democrats are tied at 47% in the midterm elections matchup. The analysis said, &ldquo;This is the GOP&rsquo;s best showing since February.&rdquo; It cited gains for Republicans among married women, Hispanics, and union members.<\/p>\n<p>The UVA study, shared by Center for Politics Director <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/larry-sabato\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Larry Sabato,<\/a> noted that the election remains far off and predictions can change.<\/p>\n<p>The political media and even some key Republican insiders have said that they expect the GOP to lose the House in the midterm elections. Sabato noted that to <em>Secrets<\/em> and said, &ldquo;What&rsquo;s significant to me is that the political elite have reached a very different conclusion about the future than the general public at this preliminary stage. Who is correct? The historical record is mixed. As we get closer to November 2026, perhaps the two groups&rsquo; perspectives will converge. But that is far from certain.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>In the UVA analysis, for example, majorities expect the Republicans to keep control of the House and Senate. For the House, it was 58%, and for the Senate, it was 57%.<\/p>\n<p>But the 1,000 adults polled said that they expect Trump&rsquo;s approval rating to falter and are pessimistic about the economy, the nation&rsquo;s No. 1 issue.<\/p>\n<p>So, how could the GOP stay on top? The analysis said that a Democratic failure to add seats and possibly take control from the Republicans is the fault of the Democrats.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">SEE THE LATEST POLITICAL NEWS AND BUZZ FROM WASHINGTON SECRETS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;These results point to the challenges faced by the Democratic Party today; even with low levels of optimism about the economy, and expectations about declines in presidential approval, voters seem skeptical that they can translate these challenges for the incumbents into electoral success. In fact, it&rsquo;s possible that the challenges faced by Democrats help to explain these findings: On both the House and Senate control questions, Democratic respondents were a little less likely to predict their own side would win majorities than Republicans were,&rdquo; said the analysis.<\/p>\n<p>It concluded: &ldquo;The voting public, as of this spring, appears to expect that the Republicans will likely remain in control of both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. These views are held by respondents who, at least collectively, know the current political composition of Congress. They believe that Republicans will maintain their majority, despite their perceptions of a <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\" >rocky economic road ahead<\/a>, led by a president with faltering in-office performance ratings. Moreover, they hold this belief in Republican congressional control in the face of the rule of midterm loss for the incumbent party, which points to a return of Democratic control.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1876035\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1876035\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GOP poised to break midterm election loss trend in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2647,"featured_media":2434526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Midterm-Sabato-Report-scaled-1024x683.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[38355,6203,34250,32504,32076],"class_list":["post-2434525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-election-dynamics","tag-gop","tag-midterm-elections","tag-political-strategy","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Midterm-Sabato-Report-scaled-1024x683.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2647"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2434525"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2434529,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434525\/revisions\/2434529"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2434526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2434525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2434525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2434525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}