{"id":2379634,"date":"2024-12-13T05:58:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T10:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/midterm-math-congressional-gop-will-back-trump-or-lose\/"},"modified":"2024-12-13T06:00:03","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T11:00:03","slug":"midterm-math-congressional-gop-will-back-trump-or-lose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/midterm-math-congressional-gop-will-back-trump-or-lose\/","title":{"rendered":"Midterm Math: Congressional GOP will back Trump or lose"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fmidterm-math-congressional-gop-will-back-trump-or-lose%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2379634&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses \u2063the political dynamics facing the\u200b Congressional GOP following the \u200celection\u200b of President Donald trump, highlighting the critical period \u2062of the\u2063 midterms. It argues that the success of the GOP in maintaining power hinges\u2062 on their ability to support Trump&#8217;s agenda,as past trends suggest that they could\u2063 face significant losses\u2064 in Congress if they fail to boost his popularity and address economic issues. The concept of &#8220;surge and decline&#8221; is central to \u2063this discussion; it\u2062 describes how the party of the victorious presidential candidate often benefits from \u200d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/eight-states-have-already-made-universal-mail-in-ballots-permanent\/\" title=\"Eight States Have Already Made Universal Mail-In Ballots Permanent\u00a0\">increased voter turnout<\/a> in presidential elections (the surge) but\u200b tends to loose seats in midterm elections,especially when the\u2063 president\u2062 is not\u2062 on the ballot (the decline). The article predicts that, based on \u200dTrump&#8217;s narrow victory\u200c margin, the GOP could lose around five\u200d house\u2063 seats \u200bin 2026, which would jeopardize their\u2063 current slim majority.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Midterm math: Congressional GOP will back Trump or lose<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1896423\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Midterm math may mean that Republicans in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/congress\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Congress<\/a> must help <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">President-elect Donald Trump<\/a> succeed &mdash; or lose power themselves.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>That&rsquo;s because, if history is any guide, the congressional GOP should expect to lose control of the House and maybe even the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Senate<\/a> in two years, unless it boosts the former and future president&rsquo;s popularity and the economy they will jointly oversee.<\/p>\n<p>The reason is the age-old American political phenomenon known as &ldquo;surge and decline.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>First comes the surge.<\/p>\n<p>In presidential election years in the United States, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/white-house\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">White House<\/a>-winning party benefits in Congress from the extra turnout for the victorious candidate at the top of the ticket, a phenomenon known as &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/4860934-coattail-effect-presidential-races\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">coattails<\/a>.&rdquo; The term <a href=\"https:\/\/www.merriam-webster.com\/dictionary\/coattail\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">originated about 400 years ago<\/a>, referring to the rear flap of a man&rsquo;s coat. Then, in an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.loc.gov\/resource\/mal.0014500\/?st=text\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">1848 speech<\/a>, a relatively unknown Whig Illinois congressman named Abraham Lincoln <a href=\"https:\/\/politicaldictionary.com\/words\/coattail-effect\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">countered<\/a> Democratic critics accusing Whigs of hiding behind the &ldquo;military coattail&rdquo; of their White House nominee, Gen. Zachary Taylor, charging that Democrats themselves had spent two decades hiding behind former President Andrew Jackson&rsquo;s coattails.<\/p>\n<p>A century later, a landmark book on predicting elections <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/howtopredictelec00inbean\/mode\/2up?q=%2226+to+30%22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">documented<\/a> an average 26-30 House seat &ldquo;coattail effect,&rdquo; that is, the impact of <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">winning presidential candidates sweeping<\/a> in same-party members of Congress with them.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee Richard Hudson (R-NC) (center), joined by House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), speaks at a news conference outside of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C on Nov. 12, 2024. (Chip Somodevilla \/ Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Around that time, the term <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/ngrams\/graph?content=coattail+effect&amp;year_start=1800&amp;year_end=2022&amp;corpus=en-2012&amp;smoothing=3&amp;case_insensitive=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">began<\/a> a meteoric rise in English language books, though it has since <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/ngrams\/graph?content=coattail+effect&amp;year_start=1800&amp;year_end=2022&amp;corpus=en-2012&amp;smoothing=3&amp;case_insensitive=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">fallen off<\/a> in usage, perhaps in part because critics of the theory <a href=\"https:\/\/politicaldictionary.com\/words\/coattail-effect\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">began to suggest<\/a> the effect was not as strong as originally thought. Regardless, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/exclusive-novel-pro-trump-club-woos-pennsylvanians-following-florida-example\/\" title=\"New Pro-Trump Club in Pennsylvania, Modeled After Florida&#039;s Success.\">winning presidential candidate<\/a>&rsquo;s party has won 13 House seats and two Senate seats on average <a href=\"https:\/\/www.presidency.ucsb.edu\/statistics\/data\/seats-congress-gained-or-lost-the-presidents-party-presidential-election-years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">since 1932<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Then comes the decline.<\/p>\n<p>Since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2746724\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">at least the development of the two-party system in 1860,<\/a> in midterm election years, the lack of the winning presidential candidate at the top of the ticket nearly always results in congressional-level losses for the party in the White House.&nbsp;That correction generally results in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2131768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">House<\/a> and, to a lesser extent, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/280212585_Surge_and_Decline_The_Impact_of_Changes_in_Voter_Turnout_on_the_2010_Senate_Elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Senate<\/a> losses proportional to the size of the prior election cycle&rsquo;s presidential victory.&nbsp;Specifically, for every percentage point of the margin by which a president wins in the prior election, his party will lose about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acsu.buffalo.edu\/~jcampbel\/documents\/JCJOP1985Surge.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">three seats during the midterm<\/a> elections.<\/p>\n<p>At last count, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2024\/results\/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&amp;election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&amp;filter-key-races=false&amp;filter-flipped=false&amp;filter-remaining=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">appears<\/a> to have won about 49.9% to Harris&rsquo; 48.3%, a 1.6 percentage point margin. On average, then, we&rsquo;d expect the House GOP to lose about five seats in 2026.&nbsp;That would cost it congressional control because, in the 119<sup>th<\/sup> Congress, House Republicans will hold a slim 220-215 majority. The incoming Senate Republican majority, which will be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-senate.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">53-47<\/a> in the next Congress, also could be vulnerable in 2026, based on the same dynamic.<\/p>\n<p>Where might Hill Republicans get help to avoid this type of scenario?<\/p>\n<p>Historically, a handful of factors seem statistically to increase or decrease a presidential party&rsquo;s midterm losses. Those factors include <a href=\"https:\/\/pages.ucsd.edu\/~skernell\/styled\/documents\/negativevoting.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">presidential popularity<\/a> and, to a lesser extent, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acsu.buffalo.edu\/~jcampbel\/documents\/JCJOP1985Surge.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">economic growth<\/a>. Specifically, for every percentage point more favorable the president is in the midterm Gallup poll, one can expect the president&rsquo;s party to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acsu.buffalo.edu\/~jcampbel\/documents\/JCJOP1985Surge.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">save about one seat<\/a> in the House, on average. Similarly, each one-percent improvement in economic conditions in the year <span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">before<\/span> the midterm elections saves the president&rsquo;s party <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acsu.buffalo.edu\/~jcampbel\/documents\/JCJOP1985Surge.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">about two seats<\/a> in the House, though there&rsquo;s a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/280212585_Surge_and_Decline_The_Impact_of_Changes_in_Voter_Turnout_on_the_2010_Senate_Elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">question<\/a> of whether that dynamic holds true in the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, if history is any guide, congressional Republicans&rsquo; best hope to retain control of their respective chambers would be to make Trump as successful, and especially well-liked, as possible during the next election season. Secondarily, the House GOP, in particular, can improve its chances by seeing to it that the U.S. economy is thriving to the maximum extent possible before that election season arrives &mdash; in this case, 2025.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Granted, statistically speaking, a third factor may affect those losses: the degree to which individual members of Congress position themselves strategically relative to the president.&nbsp;If a president is unpopular, <a href=\"https:\/\/pages.ucsd.edu\/~skernell\/styled\/documents\/negativevoting.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">some members of his party might choose to distance themselves from him<\/a>. That said, it only works on the margins, as Democrats running under retiring President Joe Biden&rsquo;s yoke can testify &mdash; and if Trump is popular and the economy is roaring, GOP members won&rsquo;t have that problem. So, on average, congressional Republicans can either make Trump popular and economically successful &mdash; or, if the past is prologue, lose power.<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line: Midterm math may mandate that congressional Republicans help Trump succeed or fail themselves.<\/p>\n<p><em>Christopher C. Hull, Ph.D. is president of Issue Management Inc., a public affairs firm that does grassroots and advocacy work. He was previously chief of staff to a member of the House of Representatives.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1896423\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1896423\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GOP must support Trump to avoid losing power in midterms<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3148,"featured_media":2379635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/WB.WhiteHouse.121824.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[46715,42893,46714,32504,3634],"class_list":["post-2379634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-congressional-gop","tag-elections-2024","tag-midterm-math","tag-political-strategy","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/WB.WhiteHouse.121824.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2379634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3148"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2379634"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2379634\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2379638,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2379634\/revisions\/2379638"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2379635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2379634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2379634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2379634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}