{"id":2370109,"date":"2024-11-17T23:05:01","date_gmt":"2024-11-18T04:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-pollster-calling-it-quits-after-iowa-election-prediction-gaffe-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-11-17T23:06:32","modified_gmt":"2024-11-18T04:06:32","slug":"top-pollster-calling-it-quits-after-iowa-election-prediction-gaffe-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-pollster-calling-it-quits-after-iowa-election-prediction-gaffe-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Top pollster calling it quits after Iowa election prediction gaffe &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftop-pollster-calling-it-quits-after-iowa-election-prediction-gaffe-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2370109&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Top pollster Ann Selzer is resigning from the *Des \u200dMoines Register* Iowa\u2062 Poll following a significant miscalculation in her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-gets-election-forecast-bounce-from-nate-silver-as-harris-boom-mellows-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Trump gets election forecast bounce from Nate Silver as Harris boom mellows - Washington Examiner\">recent election predictions<\/a>. Just days before the\u200c election, Selzer&#8217;s poll\u2062 suggested that Vice President Kamala \u200cHarris was ahead of former \u2063President \u2063Donald Trump \u2064by\u200d three points in Iowa, a \u200dstate\u2063 that\u200b ultimately Trump won by over 13 points. This error has brought attention to her decision to leave, although Selzer\u2064 clarifies that her departure was planned long before the election and is not a retirement. She expressed regret that she could not announce\u2062 her resignation after a more\u200c accurate final poll, calling the timing &#8220;ironic.&#8221; Selzer indicated her intention\u200c to continue with different work outside\u2064 of election polling after her contract expired, a decision she made\u200b over a year ago.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Top pollster calling it quits after Iowa election prediction gaffe<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1882226\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Just a few weeks after a presidential election prediction in the state of <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iowa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Iowa<\/a> was dead wrong, top pollster Ann Selzer is resigning from the <em>Des Moines Register<\/em> Iowa Poll.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>The highly-regarded Iowa Poll returned a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3214550\/harris-leads-trump-in-iowa-by-3-points-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"shocking result\">shocking result<\/a> just three days before the election this year, showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of then-former President <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Donald Trump<\/a> by 3 percentage points in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-seek-to-revert-ohio-to-swing-state-status\/\" title=\"Democrats seek to revert Ohio to swing state status\">reliably red state<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>At the time, Selzer said, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Trump ended up winning the state on Election Day by over 13 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jaselzer\/status\/1858176134266953772?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"post\">post<\/a> on X on Sunday, Selzer insisted that she is not retiring but that it has been a &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">long-time plan&#038;rdquo<\/a>; that this would be the last election she would conduct polling for.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Oh, and mentions of &lsquo;retirement&rsquo; are inaccurate. It&rsquo;s been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues,&rdquo; she said.<\/p>\n<p>She also penned a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/opinion\/columnists\/2024\/11\/17\/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities\/76334909007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"guest column\">guest column<\/a> in the <em>Des Moines Register<\/em> explaining her departure, in which she said that it is purely &ldquo;ironic&rdquo; her leaving comes just after such a shocking miscalculation.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Would I have liked to make this announcement after a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ann-selzer-announces-retirement-from-election-polling-after-iowa-strikeout-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Ann Selzer announces retirement from election polling after Iowa strikeout - Washington Examiner\">final poll aligned<\/a> with Election Day results? Of course.&#8239;It&rsquo;s ironic that it&rsquo;s just the opposite.&#8239;I am proud of the work I&rsquo;ve done for the Register,&rdquo; Selzer said.<\/p>\n<p>Selzer also explained that she made the decision to let her contract with the newspaper expire &ldquo;over a year ago.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Still, the timeline of the polling error and Selzer&rsquo;s announcement of her departure from election polling did not escape the musing and ire of Trump, who accused Selzer of &ldquo;election fraud&rdquo; and vowed an investigation into it in a <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/113500487850838306\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"post\">post<\/a> on Truth Social.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;A totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time. She knew exactly what she was doing. Thank you to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a record breaking vote, despite possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited &lsquo;newspaper&rsquo; for which she works. An investigation is fully called for!&rdquo; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Before this election, the Selzer polls had historically been <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mattkleinonline\/status\/1852849716788084910?s=46&amp;t=WCjN9b0p46x4JtDWW5vQBw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"very accurate\">very accurate<\/a>. In the 2020 presidential election, it predicted a Republican margin of 7 points in Iowa. Trump won the state over then-candidate Joe Biden by 8 points that year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1882226\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1882226\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pollster Ann Selzer resigns after Iowa prediction error<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3359,"featured_media":2370110,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/california-voting-closed.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[45195,33017,15698],"class_list":["post-2370109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-iowa-election","tag-political-analysis","tag-polling"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/california-voting-closed.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2370109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3359"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2370109"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2370109\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2370113,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2370109\/revisions\/2370113"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2370110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2370109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2370109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2370109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}