{"id":2368246,"date":"2024-11-13T06:18:01","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T11:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-wins-ann-selzer-loses-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-11-13T06:19:17","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T11:19:17","slug":"trump-wins-ann-selzer-loses-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-wins-ann-selzer-loses-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump wins, Ann Selzer loses &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftrump-wins-ann-selzer-loses-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2368246&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses the influence of pollster Ann \u200cSelzer and her polling methodology, particularly regarding Iowa politics. The author argues\u2062 that Selzer&#8217;s polls tend\u2062 to skew \u2063in\u200d favor\u200c of Democratic candidates, undermining their credibility. They <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">cite\u2064 specific examples<\/a> from\u2063 recent elections, such as the 2018 gubernatorial race and the 2020 Senate \u200drace,\u2062 where Selzer&#8217;s predictions did not align \u200cwith actual outcomes, leading \u200dto Republican victories despite\u200b her \u200dpolls indicating otherwise. The author contends that Selzer\u200b has acknowledged the power of her polls to energize voters, yet questions why the same effect doesn&#8217;t apply to \u2063Democrats, suggesting \u200ca bias in her polling. Ultimately, the article\u2062 calls for Iowa politics to move away from relying on\u2062 Selzer and\u2062 the Des Moines Register for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/stephen-moore-america-needs-political-prediction-markets\/\" title=\"Stephen Moore: America Needs Political Prediction Markets\">accurate polling data<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Trump wins, Ann Selzer loses<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1879291\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>It&rsquo;s time for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/iowa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Ann Selzer\">Iowa<\/a> politics to abandon <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3219478\/preelection-iowa-poll-favoring-harris-far-off-final-margins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Ann Selzer\">Ann Selzer<\/a> and the <em>Des Moines Register.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>For too long, we have let Ann Selzer use her polls to influence races. She is fully aware that her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"polls\">polls<\/a> can influence voters. She said it herself in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/opinion\/2024\/11\/07\/ann-selzer-well-look-at-data-to-try-to-understand-iowa-poll-miss\/76100172007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">guest column she wrote<\/a> after the election, where she said: &ldquo;I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory.&rdquo;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If the poll can energize Republican voters, why can&rsquo;t it do the same for Democrats? Ann Selzer, in her own words, just admitted her polls can affect election results.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Des Moines Register<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/politics\/iowa-poll\/2024\/11\/05\/pollster-j-ann-selzer-to-review-data-after-iowa-poll-misses-trump-win\/76085598007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">called it<\/a> a &ldquo;rare miss&rdquo; for Ann Selzer, which is an oxymoron. For those who have been paying attention over the past decade, including myself, you will realize Ann Selzer has a trend in her polls &mdash; and it&rsquo;s to boost Democrats.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In the 2018 governor&rsquo;s race, Selzer had Fred Hubbell up by 2 percentage points in September, 43%-41%. In the final November poll, she had Hubbell up 46%-44%. The result? Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) won by 3 points.<\/p>\n<p>In the 2020 Senate race, Selzer had Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) behind Theresa Greenfield by 3 points in June and 3 points in September. Then, in the final October poll, Ernst was &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/heres-how-the-media-are-lying-right-now-trump-nabj-edition\/\" title=\"Here&#039;s How The Media Are Lying Right Now: Trump\u2014NABJ Edition\">suddenly&#038;rdquo<\/a>; up 4 points. The result? Joni Ernst won by 7 points. This particular race was not a matter of her being wrong in the end &mdash;&nbsp;it&rsquo;s about her manufacturing fake support for a Democratic candidate.<\/p>\n<p>In the 2022 attorney general race, the October Selzer poll had Thomas John Miller up by 16 points on Brenna Bird. The result? Brenna Bird won by a point, meaning Selzer was off by 17 points.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In the presidential caucuses, she was wrong twice. In 2012, Selzer had Mitt Romney winning with 24% while having Rick Santorum at 15%. The result? Santorum finished with 25%. In 2016, Selzer had Donald Trump at 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at 23%, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 15%. The result? Cruz won with 28%, Trump finished with 24%, and Rubio finished with 23%.<\/p>\n<p>There is no &ldquo;rare miss&rdquo; for Ann Selzer. Not only did she disrespect Iowa and our voters, but she caused Iowa to be laughed at by the entire country. Ann Selzer and the <em>Des Moines Register <\/em>lost any shred of credibility they have left. Having Harris up 3 points is professional malpractice. Any pollster who is off by 17 points should never be trusted again. So when will the Democratic Party abandon Ann Selzer?<\/p>\n<p><em>Jeff Kaufmann is the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1879291\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1879291\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump triumphs, Selzer falters; Iowa should move on from her<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3520,"featured_media":2368247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AP23354061302382.jpg.optimal.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[44472,32321,5894,3634,32076],"class_list":["post-2368246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-ann-selzer","tag-election-results","tag-politics","tag-trump","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AP23354061302382.jpg.optimal.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2368246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3520"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2368246"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2368246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2368250,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2368246\/revisions\/2368250"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2368247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2368246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2368246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2368246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}