{"id":2364833,"date":"2024-11-06T02:04:57","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T07:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/urgent-numbers-betting-markets-breaking-big-for-trump-as-polls-close\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T02:05:54","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T07:05:54","slug":"urgent-numbers-betting-markets-breaking-big-for-trump-as-polls-close","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/urgent-numbers-betting-markets-breaking-big-for-trump-as-polls-close\/","title":{"rendered":"Urgent Numbers: Betting Markets Breaking Big for Trump as Polls Close"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Furgent-numbers-betting-markets-breaking-big-for-trump-as-polls-close%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2364833&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>As polls closed across the United States, betting activity on former President Donald Trump surged, with a dominant 93.3% majority on the \u2064betting site Polymarket\u200c indicating he would win the electoral vote. \u2062In the race for the popular\u2062 vote, Trump was \u2062also \u200cfavored at \u206278%, though those odds appeared\u2062 to fluctuate during the evening. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, Trump&#8217;s odds strengthened to 89%, and\u200d he was\u200b seen as the favorite in pivotal \u200cstates like Pennsylvania, where \u206282% of bettors predicted a win for him. <\/p>\n<p>Current polling and <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">betting trends suggest<\/a> a narrow\u200c but clear advantage for Trump, especially in key Southern \u200cand Midwestern states. Analysts noted that if Trump were to win Georgia and North Carolina, Harris would need to secure a clean sweep in several <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/mi-judge-orders-dem-sec-of-state-to-release-all-communications-with-dominion-facebook-apple-amazon-and-google\/\" title=\"MI Judge Orders Dem Sec of State To Release All Communications With Dominion, Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google\">critical swing states<\/a> to claim victory\u2014a considerable challenge. The\u2064 night is expected to be long, but the prevailing consensus in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-kamala-harris-is-eight-months-into-being-vp-and-already-trying-to-save-her-political-career\/\" title=\"ANALYSIS: Kamala Harris Is Eight Months Into Being VP, And Already Trying To Save Her Political Career\">betting markets<\/a> points to a potential setback for the Democrats.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>As the polls close across America, gamblers are putting their money where their mouth is and betting on former President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>On betting site <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730864936860\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polymarket<\/a>, as of 10:45 p.m. ET, Trump was a 93.3 percent to 6.9 percent favorite to win the electoral vote and thus the presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024?tid=1730865007300\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">favorite to win the popular vote<\/a> is also Trump with a margin of 78 percent to 22 percent for Harris. That number has been fluctuating throughout the night.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Odds Trump wins the popular vote are soaring, but Harris still has the lead.<\/p>\n<p>&#128998; Harris &bull; 63.2% chance<br \/> &#128997; Trump &bull; 36.8% chance <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/meXuKruBFH\">pic.twitter.com\/meXuKruBFH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Polymarket (@Polymarket) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Polymarket\/status\/1853982639817883874?\">November 6, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p><em>(Is Trump going to win the election? Become a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Western Journal Member<\/a> to gain access to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/trump-many-paths-victory-states-watch\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">our rundown of Trump&rsquo;s paths to victory<\/a>.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>On <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kalshi<\/a>, meanwhile, Trump&rsquo;s margin has shot up to 89 percent as of 10:45 p.m. ET, vs. 11 percent for Harris.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest mover in these numbers is the state of Pennsylvania, where Trump is currently the betting favorite.<\/p>\n<p>On Kalshi, 82 percent of bettors favor Trump to win the Keystone State against 18 percent for Harris. With the Sun Belt swing states largely viewed as trending toward Trump, just one state in the Midwestern &ldquo;Blue Wall&rdquo; would hand him the election.<\/p>\n<p>It&rsquo;s not just the betting markets, either; as of shortly after 10 p.m. ET, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-president-forecast-needle.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The New York Times<\/a> election needle showed that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/anti-trump-nyt-columnist-epiphany-bad-guys\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donald Trump<\/a> has a 78 percent chance of victory.<\/p>\n<p>Also driving that are the three <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/exit-poll-sets-off-dour-mood-cnn-miracle-kamala-harris-wins-numbers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">toss-up states<\/a> in the Midwest, two of which have a 60 percent chance of going the Republicans&rsquo; way.<\/p>\n<p>Only Wisconsin, which is leaning 56 percent Trump&rsquo;s way, is out of the 60 percent zone.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;[Trump] is a narrow but clear favorite to win Georgia and North Carolina,&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/new-york-times-election-needle-swings-toward-trump-votes-roll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Times data expert<\/a> Nate Cohn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/trump-harris-election#technical-problems-slow-navajo-voting-in-arizona\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">noted<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;If he carries those states, Kamala Harris will probably need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win &mdash; a real possibility, but a tall order nonetheless. We have very little data from those states, and it will be a long time until we do.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>In other words, be prepared for a long night. However, smart money seems to favor Donald Trump as the polls are closing across America.<\/p>\n<p>If betting markets are a better predictor than polls &mdash; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/bet-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as many have said<\/a> &mdash; it could be a very bad night for the Democrats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> \t     \t\t\t\t\t\t     \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> \t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\"> \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> \t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\"> \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> \t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As polls close nationwide, bettors are placing their wagers on former President Donald Trump. At 10:45 p.m. ET on Polymarket, Trump had a 93.3% chance of winning the electoral vote compared to 6.9% for his opponent. He is also favored to win the popular vote with a margin of 78% to 22% against Harris, although these figures have been changing throughout the evening. While Trump&#8217;s odds for the popular vote are rising, Harris still leads with a probability of 63.2%. On Kalshi, Trump&#8217;s chances have increased to 89%, while Harris stands at 11%. The key state influencing these numbers is Pennsylvania, where Trump is currently favored by bettors at an overwhelming rate of 82%. With swing states leaning towards Trump and only needing one Midwestern state from the &#8220;Blue Wall&#8221; for victory, he appears to be in a strong position as results come in. The New York Times&#8217; election needle also indicates a significant chance of victory for Trump at around 78%. However, it will take time before all data from crucial states like Michigan and Wisconsin becomes available; thus, it may be a lengthy night ahead as results unfold<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2364834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Voting-Odds.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[38392,15638,3634,44458],"class_list":["post-2364833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-betting-markets","tag-polls","tag-trump","tag-urgent-news"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Voting-Odds.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2364833"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364833\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2364837,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364833\/revisions\/2364837"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2364834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2364833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2364833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2364833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}