{"id":2364813,"date":"2024-11-06T01:33:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T06:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/breaking-nyt-chief-political-analyst-we-consider-trump-likely-to-win-presidency\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T01:33:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T06:33:50","slug":"breaking-nyt-chief-political-analyst-we-consider-trump-likely-to-win-presidency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/breaking-nyt-chief-political-analyst-we-consider-trump-likely-to-win-presidency\/","title":{"rendered":"BREAKING- NYT Chief Political Analyst: &#8216;We Consider Trump Likely to Win Presidency&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fbreaking-nyt-chief-political-analyst-we-consider-trump-likely-to-win-presidency%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2364813&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>As of 11 p.m. ET,\u200c The New York Times reports\u200c that Donald Trump has an 89% likelihood of winning both the Electoral\u2064 College and the 2024 presidential election. Chief political analyst Nate\u2064 Cohn indicates that Trump has a strong advantage in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/huge-sidney-powell-witness-whom-ny-times-described-as-always-the-smartest-person-in-the-room-concludes-hundreds-of-thousands-of-votes-transferred-from-trump-to-biden-in-all-battleground-states\/\" title=\"HUGE! Sidney Powell Witness Whom NY Times Described as &quot;Always the Smartest Person in the Room&quot; Concludes Hundreds of Thousands of Votes Transferred from Trump to Biden IN ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES\">key battleground states<\/a> like Pennsylvania, \u200dMichigan, and Wisconsin, which \u2063are crucial for his success.\u2064 Current vote counts show Trump leading narrowly, which has shifted expectations\u2063 from \u200ca &#8220;leaning Trump&#8221; to a more definitive likelihood of victory. <\/p>\n<p>Trump has a 68% chance of winning Michigan, a 67% chance in Pennsylvania, \u2062and a 66% chance in Wisconsin. If these trends continue,\u2063 he may even secure the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">national popular\u2063 vote<\/a>, which could indicate strong \u2062overall performance. Other swing states also favor\u2064 Trump by a significant margin, though Nevada remains an outlier. The dynamics\u200d suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris is\u200c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/after-hundreds-of-layoffs-worlds-largest-streaming-site-admits-the-truth\/\" title=\"Largest streaming site confesses truth after mass layoffs\">facing\u200d significant \u2064challenges<\/a>\u200d as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/hunter-biden-quarantined-on-election-night-at-delaware-home-where-classified-docs-found\/\" title=\"Hunter Biden &quot;Quarantined&quot; on Election Night at Delaware Home Where Classified Docs Found\">election results unfold<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>The New York Times thinks, as of 11 p.m. ET, that Donald Trump is 89 percent likely to win the Electoral College and the 2024 election.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency,&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-president-forecast-needle.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Times<\/a> chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Cohn said, Trump &ldquo;has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/anxiety-setting-kamala-harris-hq-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris<\/a> would need to sweep all three.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s up from earlier in the night, when the race was only &ldquo;leaning Trump.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The New York Times needle is currently predicting both an electoral college victory and a popular vote win for Donald Trump. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xjbtpgPRwS\">pic.twitter.com\/xjbtpgPRwS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Sean Davis (@seanmdav) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/seanmdav\/status\/1853998668010971619?\">November 6, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Each of those three states &mdash; which Harris likely needs to sweep in the Times&rsquo; model to have a chance at the White House &mdash; show over a two-thirds chance of landing in Trump&rsquo;s lap.<\/p>\n<p>All of those three went for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/voters-battleground-pennsylvania-react-bidens-garbage-attack-left-really-thinks-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">President Joe Biden<\/a> during the 2020 election.<\/p>\n<p>While most experts said that it might take over 24 hours for the vote to shake out, if the models are accurate, we might see calls before then.<\/p>\n<p>In Michigan, which has 15 electoral votes, Trump has a 68 percent chance of winning, as per the model. In Pennsylvania &mdash; the big prize of the evening, with 19 electoral votes &mdash; he has a 67 percent chance of winning. In Wisconsin, he has a 66 percent chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, Cohn previously said that the model showed Trump with an outside chance of winning the national popular vote.<\/p>\n<p>While that wouldn&rsquo;t account for anything, it would be a positive sign of Trump&rsquo;s overperformance if he were able to win the popular vote, as well.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The race for the national popular vote is a true tossup,&rdquo; Cohn noted.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Trump has run well all over the country. If that trend continues in California and New York, where the vote count is still early, there&rsquo;s a distinct chance he could win it.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>As for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wow-cnn-stunned-number-battleground-independents-breaking-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">other swing states<\/a>, all of them are over 75 percent Trump in the Times&rsquo; model except for Nevada &mdash; which likely wouldn&rsquo;t matter if Trump takes one of the &ldquo;blue wall&rdquo; states and which has yet to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/north-carolina-kicks-off-2024-voting-with-lawsuits-in-limbo-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"North Carolina kicks off 2024 voting with lawsuits in limbo - Washington Examiner\">begin counting votes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But one thing is for certain, no matter what happens there: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/urgent-numbers-betting-markets-breaking-big-trump-polls-close\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris is in deep trouble<\/a> with all of the states in the contiguous 48 states closed.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> \t     \t\t\t\t\t\t     \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> \t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\"> \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> \t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\"> \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> \t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As of 11 p.m. ET, The New York Times estimates that Donald Trump has an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College and the 2024 election. Chief political analyst Nate Cohn stated, &#8220;For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency.&#8221; He noted that Trump holds an advantage in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin\u2014states Harris would need to win entirely to have a chance. Although there are still many votes left to count, Trump&#8217;s current lead is noticeable compared to earlier in the night when he was only seen as &#8220;leaning&#8221; towards victory<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2364814,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Picture-92.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[15823,36631,40050],"class_list":["post-2364813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-nyt","tag-politicalanalysis","tag-trump2024"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Picture-92.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2364813"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2364817,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364813\/revisions\/2364817"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2364814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2364813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2364813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2364813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}