{"id":2364515,"date":"2024-11-05T16:53:02","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T21:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-betting-odds-trump-chances-rise-in-last-stretch-of-2024-race\/"},"modified":"2024-11-05T16:54:14","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T21:54:14","slug":"election-betting-odds-trump-chances-rise-in-last-stretch-of-2024-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-betting-odds-trump-chances-rise-in-last-stretch-of-2024-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Election betting odds: Trump chances rise in last stretch of 2024 race"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Felection-betting-odds-trump-chances-rise-in-last-stretch-of-2024-race%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2364515&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses the \u2063fluctuating betting \u200codds for \u200bformer President Donald Trump&#8217;s \u2064chances in the 2024 presidential election. Initially, Trump&#8217;s odds significantly dropped \u200cfrom\u200b a 28.9-point lead \u2064to just 9.9 points, corresponding with \u200ca\u200b major\u200b decline in DJT Media&#8217;s stock value. However, as Election Day approached, his odds \u2063recovered to a 20.8-point lead, which led to \u200ba surge in his \u200cmedia\u2062 stock.<\/p>\n<p>The piece highlights\u200b the \u200cvolatility in Trump&#8217;s betting \u2062odds, noting that \u2062he had maintained the lead for 30 consecutive days but \u2064faced competition from Vice President Kamala Harris earlier in the election cycle. Analysts point to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gop-could-win-miami-dade-county-for-first-time-in-two-decades\/\" title=\"GOP Could Win Miami-Dade County for First Time in Two Decades\">early voting data<\/a> \u2062as a potential factor impacting the odds, particularly\u2064 in key swing states.<\/p>\n<p>As Election \u2064Day unfolded, Democrats gained \u200btraction in odds for winning control\u2062 of \u200bthe House, while \u200bRepublicans were \u200bstill favored for a potential Senate majority, although some GOP\u200c candidates faced dwindling odds.<\/p>\n<p>The article concludes by emphasizing the\u200b predictive reliability \u2062of election\u200b betting odds, which historically have shown a strong correlation with actual electoral outcomes, while also noting the presence of &#8220;underdog bias&#8221; \u2062in highly favored \u200ccandidates.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Election betting odds: Trump&rsquo;s chances rise after faltering in final days of 2024 race<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1845754\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Donald Trump<\/a> is the Election Day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3202747\/who-will-win-election-2024-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">betting odds<\/a> favorite to win the 2024 presidential <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">election<\/a>. His odds to win plummeted earlier in the week, making him a narrow favorite, but have since bounced back to give him a more comfortable margin.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>Trump had a 28.9-point lead among bettors on Oct. 29, and that dropped to 9.9 points by Sunday. As his odds fell, DJT Media stock tanked about 47% from $54.64 to $28.81. His lead is now back up to 20.8 points, and DJT Media has shot up over 41% to over $39 per share. It jumped 17% on Election Day alone at one point, resulting in trading of the stock being halted twice due to volatility.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the volatility, Trump finished the 2024 election cycle by leading in the betting odds for 30 consecutive days. Before he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3183476\/trump-surges-ahead-harris-election-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">surged ahead<\/a>, Vice President Kamala Harris led for 26 consecutive days.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/live-blog\/2024-election-campaign-live-updates-harris-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><strong>2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why the drastic shift?<\/h2>\n<p>Founder of <em>ElectionBettingOdds.com<\/em>, Maxim Lott, shared his analysis of why the odds shifted so drastically days before the election with the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;s early voting data,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;Which, if anything, has been favorable to Trump, and which I think is partly responsible for his betting leads in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, where more than half of voters have already voted.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>He explained that bettors seem to be pulling back in the northern swing states where there is less early voting and where &ldquo;there have been a flood of polls&rdquo; that &ldquo;hint at very slight momentum towards Harris.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Two weeks ago, Trump was favored to win <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3189809\/trump-harris-betting-odds-2024-swing-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">all seven<\/a> swing states in the polls and the betting odds: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. As of election morning, Harris is now favored to win the latter two battlegrounds and has significantly tightened the odds in Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s hard to detect the exact cause of that, but one possibility is that the narrative around the Madison Square Garden comments&rdquo; where a comedian joked that Puerto Rico is a &ldquo;floating pile of garbage,&rdquo; as well as when President Joe Biden called Trump supporters &ldquo;garbage&rdquo; are distractions &ldquo;from the issues Trump does best on, like the economy and migration.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>One other explanation for the odds shift, as Lott <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maximumtruth.org\/p\/election-betting-updates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">explained<\/a> on <em>MaximumTruth.org<\/em>, is the Selzer poll released this week, which showed Trump down by 3 percentage points in solid-red Iowa.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>While Harris&rsquo;s betting odds momentum was short-lived, Democrats took and kept the betting odds lead to win majority control of the <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/House-Control-2024.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">House<\/a>. On Halloween, Republicans were given a 56.1% chance to win the House and Democrats had a 43.9% chance. By Monday, Democrats flipped that around, with a 55.9% chance to win. On Election Day, Democrats are given a 52% chance.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">volatile betting odds shifts<\/a> in the presidential and House races, there has not been a major change in the <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/SenateWithMap2024.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Senate<\/a> odds. Republicans remain favored to win a 52-48 majority, however four GOP underdogs who were mounting last-minute comebacks have seen their momentum cool off.<\/p>\n<p>According to Polymarket, Republican Senate underdogs in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada have all seen their odds decrease over the last week. Pennsylvania&rsquo;s Dave McCormick went from a 31% chance to 23.7%, Michigan&rsquo;s Mike Rogers went from 33% to 21.3%, Wisconsin&rsquo;s Eric Hovde went from 35% to 26.6%, and Nevada&rsquo;s Sam Brown went from 26% to 13.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Arizona&rsquo;s Kari Lake, on the other hand, went from a 26% chance last week to 27.7% on Election Day after an Atlas Intel poll put her ahead by a point earlier in the week.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How predictive are election betting odds?<\/h2>\n<p>Historical data shows that betting odds are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3202747\/who-will-win-election-2024-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">extremely efficient<\/a> at predicting a candidate&rsquo;s chance of winning an election. Candidates given a 75% chance to win will win approximately 75% of the time, data show.<\/p>\n<p>Between 2016 and 2022, <em>ElectionBettingOdds<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/TrackRecord.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">tracked<\/a> 807 different candidates&rsquo; chances across a number of elections. They found that if bettors gave a candidate between a 90% and 100% chance to win, that candidate won 99.4% of the time. Candidates given between an 80% and 90% chance won 93.8% of the time.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(Image courtesy of Maxim Lott)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Between 70% and 80%, that falls to 74.4%. Between 60% and 70%, it&rsquo;s 68.8%. Between 50% and 60%, it&rsquo;s 56%. Between 40% and 50%, it&rsquo;s 44%. Between 30% and 40%, it&rsquo;s 34.9%. Between 20% and 30%, it&rsquo;s 23.8%. Between 10% and 20%, it&rsquo;s 4.5%, and between 0% and 10%, it&rsquo;s 1%.<\/p>\n<p>There is, however, an &ldquo;underdog bias&rdquo; present in races where one candidate is heavily favored over the other. This bias produces a higher predicted chance of upset in races where the outcome is essentially a forgone conclusion. This would not apply to the 2024 presidential race since it is predicted to be very tight.<\/p>\n<p>Lott&rsquo;s research has also found that election betting odds have a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maximumtruth.org\/p\/deep-dive-on-predicting-elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">slight lean<\/a> toward Democratic candidates but less so than <em>FiveThirtyEight&rsquo;s<\/em> model does. Both tend to be more &ldquo;surprised&rdquo; when a Republican wins.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In total, 88.9% of candidates favored in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/who-is-winning-the-election-expert-reveals-why-betting-odds-are-so-telling\/\" title=\"Who is winning the election? Expert reveals why betting odds are so telling\">election betting odds won<\/a> their election out of the 807 tracked. Only three betting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsoddshistory.com\/other\/potus-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">underdogs<\/a> have won the presidential election since the 1940s, and two were only slight underdogs. John F. Kennedy won at +110, Jimmy Carter won at +100, but Trump won in 2016 despite +375 odds.<\/p>\n<p>Even in 2016, bettors gave Trump greater than a 20% chance to win, while many of the top predictive models had him in single-digit territory. Lott told the <em>Washington Examiner<\/em> that bettors may have discounted the chance &ldquo;outsiders, nonpoliticians, and populists&rdquo; could win major elections in 2016, but &ldquo;this time around, they are certainly not discounting [Trump&rsquo;s] chances.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1845754\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1845754\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump&#8217;s betting odds improve after a dip in the 2024 race<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2670,"featured_media":2364516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/trump-harris-final-update.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[33151,3728,3634],"class_list":["post-2364515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-betting-odds","tag-election","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/trump-harris-final-update.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2670"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2364515"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364515\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2364519,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364515\/revisions\/2364519"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2364516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2364515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2364515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2364515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}