{"id":2364072,"date":"2024-11-04T20:52:01","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T01:52:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-political-analyst-says-pollsters-are-missing-a-massive-shift\/"},"modified":"2024-11-04T20:53:58","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T01:53:58","slug":"top-political-analyst-says-pollsters-are-missing-a-massive-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-political-analyst-says-pollsters-are-missing-a-massive-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Top Political Analyst Says Pollsters Are Missing &#8216;A Massive Shift&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Ftop-political-analyst-says-pollsters-are-missing-a-massive-shift%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2364072&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In a \u200brecent discussion \u200dregarding polling accuracy in presidential races, political analyst Alex Castellanos criticized \u200bcurrent poll methodologies, suggesting that \u200bpollsters are not capturing the\u2063 significant\u2063 shift in \u200d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/fridays-fun-fraud-fact-mysterious-spike-in-incomplete-nv-voter-registrations-13372-with-invalid-birthdates-and-casinos-and-temporary-rv-parks-as-a-home-address\/\" title=\"FRIDAY&#039;S FUN FRAUD FACT: Mysterious Spike in Incomplete NV Voter Registrations - 13,372 with Invalid Birthdates and Casinos and Temporary RV Parks as a Home Address\">voter registration<\/a>\u2062 trends favoring Republicans. Castellanos noted that \u200dwhile many polls present tight races, particularly \u200csuggesting a tie, these results\u200b often lack statistical variation and fail to reflect the growing Republican enthusiasm.<\/p>\n<p>Nate Silver, a well-known pollster, echoed these sentiments, asserting that late polls may be\u200b misleading\u2062 and alleging that\u2063 pollsters are &#8220;herding,&#8221; which means that polling firms \u2064adjust their results based on the findings of others to avoid being\u2064 outliers. Silver&#8217;s commentary\u200c indicates that this practice can lead to a collective \u200cbias that does not accurately represent \u2064voter sentiments.<\/p>\n<p>Both Castellanos and Silver highlight a potential concerning trend in polling, suggesting that the overwhelming depiction of electoral tie scenarios does not align\u2062 with the actual shifts in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dallas-lawrence-those-who-embraced-new-strategies-for-reaching-voters-prevailed-in-the-2022-elections\/\" title=\"Dallas Lawrence: Those Who Embraced New Strategies for Reaching Voters Prevailed in the 2022 Elections\">voter behavior<\/a>, particularly among Republicans, which \u200bcould point to \u200ca more favorable landscape for the\u200b GOP than reflected in mainstream polling data.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>The polls are offering a fuzzy snapshot of the presidential race because they have not focused on a growing Republican base across the nation, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">top political analyst<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Alex Castellanos, who worked on campaigns for GOP candidates such as Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, said Sunday that changing fundamentals have been overlooked.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I think the pollsters are getting this wrong,&rdquo; he said in a clip posted to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iwoqMjUQBAg&amp;t=180s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re all missing something, because they&rsquo;re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn&rsquo;t even statistical variation,&rdquo; Castellanos said.<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-embed\"> <iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/iwoqMjUQBAg?si=R5_Wj4GM-FRlhw_M\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s like they&rsquo;re telling us we&rsquo;re watching a basketball game where every play&rsquo;s a jump ball,&rdquo; he said.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Somebody&rsquo;s missing something.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;What I think they&rsquo;re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,&rdquo; he continnued.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I think there&rsquo;s, I&rsquo;m not going to call it a wave, but I think there&rsquo;s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;If I register to vote Republican, whether I&rsquo;m switching or new, what am I going to do?&rdquo; he said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4891637-democratic-lawmakers-worry-pollsters\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Hill<\/a> quoted a GOP pollster it did not name as suggesting a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/political-expert-mark-halperin-reveals-private-polls-looking-quite-different-numbers-shown-media\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">less charitable<\/a> motive.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it&rsquo;s part of the strategy,&rdquo; the pollster said.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;They&rsquo;re trying to drive down enthusiasm. Why are you going to vote for somebody if you think they&rsquo;re going to lose? And they&rsquo;re trying to drive down fundraising and donations,&rdquo; the pollster said.<\/p>\n<p>Pollster Nate Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/polling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recently<\/a> said Trump has been well ahead of Harris, regardless of what late polls say.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s basically 55-45 Trump or 54-45, with a small chance of a tie,&rdquo; Silver explained with regards to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/2024-election-end-electoral-college-blowout-cnn-analyst-says-likely\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Electoral College <\/a>vote.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s been a little weird. I mean look, it&rsquo;s gradually drifted to Trump over a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/longtime-republican-lawmaker-jim-inhofe-dies\/\" title=\"Longtime Republican Lawmaker Jim Inhofe Dies\">fairly long period<\/a> now. Two out of every three days Harris has lost ground in the forecast since roughly early October,&rdquo; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Silver said late polls are often fake results.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;They all, every time a pollster [says], &lsquo;Oh, every state is just +1, every <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-other-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy\/\" title=\"Polling Guru Nate Silver Says Trump 10-Point Advantage, Other Pollsters Cheating Like Crazy\">single state&#038;rsquo<\/a>;s a tie,&rsquo; No! You&rsquo;re f***ing herding! You&rsquo;re cheating,&rdquo; he argued.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Herding involves polling firms adjusting their results to other pollsters&rsquo; findings so as to not be too much of an outlier, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Herding-508.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">American Association for Public Opinion Research<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The danger is that all the firms then end up collectively biasing their results in a way that does not match reality among the voting public.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> \t     \t\t\t\t\t\t     \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> \t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\"> \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> \t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\"> \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> \t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polls are providing an unclear view of the presidential race, as they fail to account for a rising Republican base nationwide, according to political analyst Alex Castellanos. He noted that significant changes in voter registration trends have been ignored. Castellanos expressed concern that pollsters are repeatedly presenting the same data without variation, suggesting a lack of understanding of the current political landscape. He highlighted that 30 out of 31 states with party-based voter registration have seen an increase in Republican registrations over the past four years, indicating growing enthusiasm among GOP voters. A GOP pollster speculated that this might be a deliberate strategy to dampen enthusiasm and fundraising efforts for candidates perceived as losing. Pollster Nate Silver also pointed out that Trump has consistently led Harris in forecasts despite late polls suggesting otherwise, criticizing these polls as potentially misleading due to &#8220;herding&#8221; practices among polling firms<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2364073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Trump-v-Kamala.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[7428,5894,15698],"class_list":["post-2364072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-analysis","tag-politics","tag-polling"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Trump-v-Kamala.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2364072"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364072\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2364076,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2364072\/revisions\/2364076"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2364073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2364072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2364072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2364072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}