{"id":2363238,"date":"2024-11-02T15:39:02","date_gmt":"2024-11-02T19:39:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/betting-odds-take-radical-shift-in-favor-of-harris-trump-still-leads-by-slight-margin\/"},"modified":"2024-11-02T15:40:28","modified_gmt":"2024-11-02T19:40:28","slug":"betting-odds-take-radical-shift-in-favor-of-harris-trump-still-leads-by-slight-margin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/betting-odds-take-radical-shift-in-favor-of-harris-trump-still-leads-by-slight-margin\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting Odds Take Radical Shift in Favor of Harris, Trump Still Leads by Slight Margin"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fbetting-odds-take-radical-shift-in-favor-of-harris-trump-still-leads-by-slight-margin%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2363238&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In early \u2064November, the prediction\u200d market for the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">presidential election witnessed notable fluctuations<\/a>, particularly concerning Vice President Kamala Harris\u2063 and \u200dformer \u200cPresident Donald Trump. Leading up to mid-October, both candidates had similar\u200c odds, but Trump&#8217;s chances surged significantly by \u2064the end of October, reaching approximately 64.2%, while Harris fell to around 35.8%. However, a brief surge for Harris saw her\u200b odds improve to 47%, only to drop again shortly after as Trump&#8217;s likelihood of winning climbed to 56%. <\/p>\n<p>Key battleground states showed\u2063 varying predictions, with Harris being favored in Michigan, while Trump&#8217;s chances appeared stronger in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Despite these state-specific disparities, overall predictions indicated \u200ca 59.4% chance of a Trump victory across the election. Various platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, provided these odds, which were distinct from traditional <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/psaki-doesnt-deny-bidens-approval-has-declined-sharply-blames-part-of-the-american-public\/\" title=\"Psaki Doesn\u2019t Deny Biden\u2019s Approval Has \u2018Declined Sharply,\u2019 Blames Part Of The American Public\">public opinion polls<\/a>, highlighting \u200cthe complexities and rapid\u2063 changes in the electoral landscape as \u200bthe campaign progressed.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>November opened with a sudden shift in the prediction market for the U.S. presidential election, but a surge by Vice President Kamala Harris lasted less than a day.<\/p>\n<p>The odds of who will win the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump have fluctuated throughout the campaign.<\/p>\n<p>For example, at <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kalshi.com<\/a>, up until about Oct. 10, Harris and Trump were about even, with the odds of one winning going up a point or so here, down a point or so there.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Live Odds Update for Battleground States on Kalshi<\/p>\n<p>AZ<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 71%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 29%<\/p>\n<p>PA<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 52%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 48%<\/p>\n<p>MI<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 38%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 62%<\/p>\n<p>GA<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 68%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 32%<\/p>\n<p>WI<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 46%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 54%<\/p>\n<p>NC<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 69%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 31%<\/p>\n<p>NV<br \/> &#128308;Trump: 61%<br \/> &#128309;Harris: 39% <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JqINc6KQfP\">pic.twitter.com\/JqINc6KQfP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Kalshi (@Kalshi) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Kalshi\/status\/1852404462733688868?\">November 1, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>Trump gained steadily throughout most of October, hitting a high water mark in the odds market on Oct. 28, when the odds of him winning hit 64.2 percent while Harris bottomed out at 35.8 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Then came a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/lebron-james-endorses-kamala-harris-using-wildly-misleading-video\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris<\/a> surge that peaked Friday with the odds of Trump winning going down to 53 percent while Harris was at 47 percent.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">I don&rsquo;t care what the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Polymarket?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Polymarket<\/a> says. My family and I are voting Trump\/Vance like our lives depends on it. Because it does.<\/p>\n<p>Don&rsquo;t get cocky, folks!<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Andres A. Aguilar (@andres_glr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andres_glr\/status\/1851326958384418877?\">October 29, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On Saturday, however, Trump&rsquo;s odds of winning increased, hitting 56 percent while Harris was at 44 percent, with the odds fluctuating hour by hour as new polls and new sound bites emerged.<\/p>\n<p>For example, over at <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/michigan-presidential-election-winner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polymarket<\/a>, Harris was rated as the favorite to capture the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/rhodes-rage\/\" title=\"Rhodes Rage\">important swing state<\/a> of Michigan, with the odds of her winning the state at 58 percent against Trump&rsquo;s 42 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi said Harris had a 63 percent chance of winning the state against only 37 percent for Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the oddsmakers predicting Michigan will not go Trump&rsquo;s way, Polymarket said there is a 59.4 percent chance of Trump winning the election against a 40.7 chance of Harris winning.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket projected that Trump would win the swing states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia, while Harris would take Michigan and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket also gives Republicans an 81 percent chance of taking control of the Senate and Democrats a 51 percent chance of taking over the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/mike-johnson-sets-record-straight-little-secret-trump-says-already-big-impact-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">House<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The prediction odds are what are used by folks who put up money on the contest and are odds as determined by the sites, not public opinion polls.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">This isn&rsquo;t Polymarket, this is an actual national average poll. Trump is winning in all swing states &#10084;&#65039;&zwj;&#128293; but still&hellip;you MUST vote. It&rsquo;s your American right and civil privilege!! If you don&rsquo;t vote I&rsquo;ll have <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StevieStacks84?\">@StevieStacks84<\/a> come to your house and Myrtle will slap the F out of you. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/C2d6YEioqf\">pic.twitter.com\/C2d6YEioqf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Chad&#127810;&#128302;&#128125;&#10084;&#65039;&zwj;&#128293; (@chad_coleman23) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/chad_coleman23\/status\/1852700664738247157?\">November 2, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Over at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/michigan\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RealClearPolling<\/a>, Harris has a .<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ron-desantiss-possible-2024-bid-shapes-up-as-political-headaches-mount\/\" title=\"Ron DeSantis&#039;s possible 2024 bid shapes up as political headaches mount\">3 percentage point lead<\/a> in the average of polls for Michigan. She won the most recent Michigan poll listed by RealClearPolling, which was taken by Marist, with a 3 percentage point lead, which was within the margin of error for the poll.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Real Clear Polling<\/a> gives <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/polling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump<\/a> a national .3 percentage point lead over Harris.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! 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Throughout the campaign, the likelihood of either Harris or former President Donald Trump winning has varied significantly. For instance, on Kalshi.com, up until around October 10, their odds were nearly equal, with slight fluctuations favoring one candidate over the other<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2363239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Picture-85.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[33151,34059,4021,44227,3634],"class_list":["post-2363238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-betting-odds","tag-election-2024","tag-harris","tag-political-forecast","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Picture-85.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2363238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2363238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2363238\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2363239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2363238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2363238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2363238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}