{"id":2362998,"date":"2024-11-01T21:25:07","date_gmt":"2024-11-02T01:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-other-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy\/"},"modified":"2024-11-01T21:31:51","modified_gmt":"2024-11-02T01:31:51","slug":"polling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-other-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-other-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy\/","title":{"rendered":"Polling Guru Nate Silver Says Trump 10-Point Advantage, Other Pollsters Cheating Like Crazy"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fpolling-guru-nate-silver-says-trump-10-point-advantage-other-pollsters-cheating-like-crazy%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2362998&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The text discusses a political analysis by Nate Silver regarding the upcoming electoral race, \u2064particularly focusing on the chances of Republican candidate Donald Trump compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Silver\u2064 estimates that Trump has a 10% higher likelihood of winning the Electoral College, suggesting a slight lead \u2064for Trump in the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">current polling data<\/a>, with a rough estimation of a\u200c 55-45 split\u2063 in Trump&#8217;s favor. He expresses skepticism about the reliability of last-minute polls, claiming that many pollsters manipulate their results to appear in line with their\u2064 expectations, a practice known as &#8220;herding.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Silver emphasizes that despite the \u200dseeming edge\u2062 for Trump, the overall race remains\u200c very close, positing it as\u200d a \u200dnearly 50-50 contest. He offers\u200c detailed predictions\u2063 for various swing states, noting that while Trump may have a\u200b stronger lead in \u200bstates like Arizona and Georgia, the overall dynamics suggest a tied race in most places. He mentions the importance of voters participating in the election and reflects on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/behold-the-massive-change-from-2020-polling-trump-never-led-at-any-time\/\" title=\"In 2020 polling, Trump never held a lead. A significant shift indeed\">evolving \u2062political landscape<\/a> over time. This election, unlike previous ones, has a very\u2063 tight competition according to his modeling, contrasting with \u2063forecasts from prior years that\u2062 significantly favored one candidate\u2064 over another.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_1)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Polling data expert Nate Silver predicted that Republican Donald Trump has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/having-this-may-help-you-live-past-90\/\" title=\"Having This May Help You Live Past 90\">10 percent greater chance<\/a> than Democrat Kamala Harris of winning the Electoral College vote in Tuesday&rsquo;s election.<\/p>\n<p>On his &ldquo;Risky Business&rdquo; podcast with co-host Maria Konnikova posted Wednesday, he revealed that he does not put too much weight in polls coming out during the last week of the campaign, alleging many pollsters cheat to obtain their desired numbers.<\/p>\n<p>He prefaced his overall forecast saying, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s still approximately a 50-50 race.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s basically 55-45 Trump or 54-45, with a small chance of a tie,&rdquo; Silver explained with regards to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/2024-election-end-electoral-college-blowout-cnn-analyst-says-likely\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Electoral College<\/a> vote.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s been a little weird. I mean look, it&rsquo;s gradually drifted to Trump over a fairly long period now. Two out of every three days Harris has lost ground in the forecast since roughly early October,&rdquo; he said.<\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>WARNING: The following video contains vulgar language that may offend some readers.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ijoDvXIkOEs?si=ri6aDrftVuJN_D9-&amp;start=2252\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>In his online <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast<\/a> update published on Friday, Silver wrote that the race had tightened in his model, slightly.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Good update for Harris with some strong polling for her in the Blue Wall states. Not much sign of a last-minute swing in the race,&rdquo; he wrote, predicting Trump has a 53.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris&rsquo; 45.8 percent, according to his modeling.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/NEW?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">NEW<\/a> Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update<\/p>\n<p>&#128308; Trump: 53.8%<br \/> &#128309; Harris: 45.8%<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Good update for Harris with some strong polling for her in the Blue Wall states. Not much sign of a last-minute swing in the race. We are likely locked into something roughly in the toss-up range.&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8jFmbsngJE\">pic.twitter.com\/8jFmbsngJE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EricLDaugh\/status\/1852356167114129901?\">November 1, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>During his podcast, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/prominent-polling-analyst-nate-silver-lists-24-factors-pointing-trump-victory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Silver<\/a> said, &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think we&rsquo;re going to learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;They all, every time a pollster [says], &lsquo;Oh, every state is just +1, every single state&rsquo;s a tie,&rsquo; No! You&rsquo;re f***ing herding! You&rsquo;re cheating,&rdquo; he argued.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Herding involves polling firms adjusting their results to other pollsters&rsquo; findings so as to not be too much of an outlier, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Herding-508.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">American Association for Public Opinion Research<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The danger is that all the firms then end up collectively biasing their results in a way that does not match reality among the voting public.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there&rsquo;s only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race. &#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017;&#128017; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/X131aHveRR\">pic.twitter.com\/X131aHveRR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1852476681958666270?\">November 1, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/hollywood-reportedly-ready-to-kick-tesla-to-the-curb-as-elon-musk-becomes-more-conservative\/\" title=\"Hollywood Reportedly Ready to Kick Tesla to the Curb as Elon Musk Becomes More Conservative\">numbers aren&#038;rsquo<\/a>;t all going to come out at exactly 1-point leads when you&rsquo;re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You&rsquo;re putting your f***ing finger on the scale!&rdquo; Silver asserted. &ldquo;I will not name names, but some pollsters are really bad about this.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;If a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprise you, then it has no value,&rdquo; Silver contended.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With that preface, he noted that the presidential candidates appear to be within one percentage point or less of each other in the swing states, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/key-swing-state-moves-toss-lean-republican-states-shifting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arizona<\/a> being an outlier, where Trump has taken an over 2-point lead.<\/p>\n<p>Trump also appears to have a similarly stronger lead in Georgia, where the Real Clear Polling average has him up 2.6 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Overall Silver reiterated that the race is essentially a tie and encouraged everyone to get out and vote.<\/p>\n<p>In 2020, Silver&rsquo;s model <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2020-election-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">strongly favored<\/a> Joe Biden to defeat Trump giving the Democrat an 89 percent chance.<\/p>\n<p>However, in 2016 he also predicted Hillary Clinton <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2016-election-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">would beat<\/a> Trump, giving her a 71.4 percent chance to his 28.6 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Silver did not think the Republican would likely win the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/democrats-already-scrambling-blue-wall-collapses-slipping-behind-another-key-state\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Blue Wall states<\/a> of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, nor North Carolina or Florida.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! 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During his &#8220;Risky Business&#8221; podcast with Maria Konnikova, he expressed skepticism about polls released in the final week of campaigns, suggesting that many pollsters manipulate results to achieve desired outcomes. He characterized the race as roughly even, estimating it at about 55-45 or 54-45 in favor of Trump, with a slight chance of a tie. Silver noted that Harris has been losing ground over time and mentioned recent polling improvements for her in key states but indicated little evidence of significant last-minute changes. He criticized pollsters for producing similar results across various surveys, implying they may be biased and not reflective of actual voter sentiment. Overall, he emphasized that while Trump appears to have leads in some states like Arizona and Georgia, the race remains very close overall and urged voters to participate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2363000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Silver-on-Trump.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[34059,32904,33017,15698,3634],"class_list":["post-2362998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-election-2024","tag-nate-silver","tag-political-analysis","tag-polling","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Silver-on-Trump.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2362998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2362998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2362998\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2363000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2362998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2362998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2362998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}