{"id":2362785,"date":"2024-11-01T13:01:57","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T17:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-outperform-the-polls-in-presidential-elections-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-11-01T13:03:36","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T17:03:36","slug":"republicans-outperform-the-polls-in-presidential-elections-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-outperform-the-polls-in-presidential-elections-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"Republicans outperform the polls in presidential elections- Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Frepublicans-outperform-the-polls-in-presidential-elections-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2362785&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The article discusses the trend of Republican presidential candidates outperforming polling \u200cexpectations \u2063since 2004, with the exception of\u200d Mitt Romney. As the 2024 elections approach, Donald Trump\u2064 leads in \u2063national \u200dpolls for the \u2063first time in his \u2062three presidential runs, having previously outperformed polling by small margins in both \u20642016 and 2020. Historical polling data reveals\u200c that while polls\u200b predicted \u2063a \u2062win for Barack Obama in \u200c2008, John McCain still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/tim-tebow-retiring-from-professional-baseball-i-feel-called-in-other-directions\/\" title=\"Tim Tebow Retiring From Professional Baseball: \u2018I Feel Called In Other Directions\u2019\">exceeded expectations<\/a>, and in 2012, Obama\u2019s predictions\u2064 were more\u200d accurate. Democrat-aligned pollster David Shor suggests that polling tends \u200bto skew towards Democrats due \u2063to non-response from certain Republican demographics. Trump has speculated\u200c that some\u2062 pollsters might manipulate figures to discourage\u200d Republican voter turnout. Current \u2062betting markets indicate a\u200d 60.6% \u200bchance for Trump to beat Vice\u200c President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Republicans outperform the polls in every <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/are-covid-case-surges-more-fake-news\/\" title=\"Are COVID Case Surges More Fake News?\">presidential election<\/a> since 2004 &mdash; except one<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1845754\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Republicans have often claimed that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">polls<\/a> lean left. To their point, every GOP presidential candidate since 2004, minus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/mitt-romney\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Mitt Romney<\/a>, has outperformed national polling come <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/2024-elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Election Day<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>With the 2024 elections just four days away, former President Donald Trump is leading in the national polls for the first time in his three bids for the White House. While Trump lost the popular vote twice, he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3208077\/djt-stock-surges-election-betting-odds-trump-media\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">outperformed the polls<\/a> in 2016 by 1.1 points and 2.7 points in 2020.<\/p>\n<p><em>RealClearPolitics<\/em>&rsquo;s polling archive goes back as far as 2004, when former President George W. Bush won reelection against John Kerry. The national polling average had Bush leading by 1.5 points, but he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2004\/bush-vs-kerry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">outperformed<\/a> by 0.9 points to win the popular vote by 2.4 points.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/live-blog\/2024-election-campaign-live-updates-harris-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><strong>2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Former President Barack Obama was predicted in the national polls to crush John McCain by 7.6 points in 2008, and while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2008\/mccain-vs-obama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">popular vote<\/a> wasn&rsquo;t particularly close, McCain did outperform the polls by 0.3 points. In 2012, however, the polls predicted Obama would beat Romney by just 0.7 points &mdash; he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2012\/obama-vs-romney\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">won<\/a> by 3.9 points.<\/p>\n<p>Democrat-aligned Blue Rose Research pollster David Shor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/policy-and-politics\/2020\/11\/10\/21551766\/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">suggested<\/a> that the polls tend to favor Democrats due to a &ldquo;partisan nonresponse&rdquo; phenomenon where certain groups of Republicans are less likely to respond to surveys compared to their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-using-tax-dollars-to-boost-democrat-registration-and-turnout\/\" title=\"Biden Using Tax Dollars to Boost Democrat Registration and Turnout\">left-leaning counterparts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Shor pointed to 2020 early voting figures, which showed that &ldquo;early voters were considerably less Democratic than people thought.&rdquo; As 2024 early voting data are coming out ahead of the elections, Democrats are once again turning out at a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3196476\/republicans-early-voting-edge-turnaround-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">lower rate<\/a> than expected.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has speculated that nefarious motives are at play. He <a href=\"https:\/\/singjupost.com\/full-transcript-trump-on-joe-rogan-experience-podcast\/?singlepage=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">claimed<\/a> on the <em>Joe Rogan Experience<\/em> podcast that pollsters might be fudging the numbers in some states to make them look less competitive so Republicans stay home on Election Day, believing resistance is futile.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/election-wagers-provide-insight-into-results-but-face-big-threat-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Election wagers provide insight into results, but face big threat - Washington Examiner\">election betting markets<\/a>, which have historically been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3202747\/who-will-win-election-2024-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">extremely effective<\/a> predictors of elections, give Trump a 60.6% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/betting-odds\/2024\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">chance<\/a> to beat Vice President Kamala Harris on average. The most <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">popular election betting platform<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024?tid=1730467319779\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Polymarket<\/a>, gives Harris a 62% chance to win the popular vote, while Trump&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">national polling lead<\/a> stands at 0.3 points.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>According to ElectionBettingOdds.com founder Maxim Lott&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maximumtruth.org\/p\/deep-dive-on-predicting-elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">research<\/a>, election betting odds also have a slight lean toward Democratic candidates, but less so than election models like <em>FiveThirtyEight<\/em> do. Both tend to be more &ldquo;surprised&rdquo; when a Republican wins.<\/p>\n<p>The former president is currently favored to win five out of the seven 2024 battleground states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona. Harris is favored to win Michigan and Wisconsin. The swing state <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/elections\/president\/2024\/battleground-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">polling averages<\/a> show the same results.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1845754\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1845754\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Republicans have outperformed polls in every election since 2004, except one<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2670,"featured_media":2362786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/donald-trump-beats-polls.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[43465,33668,3756,32076],"class_list":["post-2362785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-polling-analysis","tag-presidential-elections","tag-republicans","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/donald-trump-beats-polls.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2362785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2670"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2362785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2362785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2362786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2362785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2362785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2362785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}