{"id":2362224,"date":"2024-10-31T13:16:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T17:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/with-poll-accuracy-uncertain-voters-start-looking-to-the-stock-market-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T13:19:06","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T17:19:06","slug":"with-poll-accuracy-uncertain-voters-start-looking-to-the-stock-market-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/with-poll-accuracy-uncertain-voters-start-looking-to-the-stock-market-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"With poll accuracy uncertain, voters start looking to the stock market &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwith-poll-accuracy-uncertain-voters-start-looking-to-the-stock-market-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2362224&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>As voters express anxiety over poll \u200caccuracy ahead of\u2062 the presidential election, many are increasingly turning to the stock market \u2063as an \u2062indicator of potential outcomes. \u2063Currently,\u2064 the stock\u200d market, particularly the S&#038;P 500 index, is showing a positive trend, which some analysts interpret as a sign that Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win. In contrast, some market participants, including cryptocurrency enthusiasts and\u2064 Wall \u2063Street \u2062executives, are betting\u2063 on a victory for former\u2064 President Donald Trump. Historically, the performance\u2064 of the S&#038;P 500 in the\u2064 lead-up to elections has been viewed as a reliable predictor of whether the\u200d incumbent party&#8217;s \u2062candidate will remain in power. Experts suggest that a rising S&#038;P 500 indicates investor confidence in the \u200dcurrent administration&#8217;s continuity, while a declining index signals uncertainty \u200babout potential\u200d changes. With most national polls showing Harris with a slight lead, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-split-on-whether-colorado-ballot-ruling-will-hurt-biden-in-2024\/\" title=\"Democrats divided on impact of Colorado ballot ruling on Biden in 2024\">swing state polls show<\/a> a\u200c tighter race,\u200d <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">indicating ongoing political\u200d tension<\/a> \u200das Election Day approaches.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">With poll accuracy uncertain, voters start looking to the stock market<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1867770\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>With polls more or less showing a dead heat in the presidential race, some anxious voters are turning to the stock market to visualize who could win the race ahead of Election Day.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>While cryptocurrency connoisseurs, tech moguls, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/wall-street\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Wall Street<\/a> executives have been betting on a win for former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Donald Trump<\/a>, the stock market is rising, notably the S&amp;P 500 index, which could indicate a win for Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Kamala Harris<\/a>. While the stock market is not entirely representative of the whole economy, the S&amp;P 500&rsquo;s performance in the weeks leading up to Election Day has typically been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party&rsquo;s candidate will retain control of the Executive Branch, according to a <em>Politico<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/10\/31\/stock-market-betting-kamala-harris-win-00185818\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">report<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The market&rsquo;s making a call for Harris to win,&rdquo; Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at the financial services company LPL Financial, told the outlet. &ldquo;When there&rsquo;s more certainty about the incumbent party winning the White House, we know for the most part the policies they&rsquo;ve [installed]. There&rsquo;s just a level of comfort that the market has with that certainty.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The theory goes that if the index is falling, then investors are bracing for more uncertainty from a new administration. A rising S&amp;P 500, however, signals that the market is expecting the current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">president<\/a>&rsquo;s party to win.<\/p>\n<p>Most nationwide polls have had Harris with a lead over Trump, but polls in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/update-corrupted-software-that-stole-6000-votes-from-trump-in-michigan-county-shut-down-for-two-hours-in-red-counties-in-georgia-on-election-day\/\" title=\"Update: Corrupted Software that Stole 6,000 Votes From Trump in Michigan County -- Shut Down for TWO HOURS in Red Counties in Georgia on Election Day\">swing states<\/a> have had the candidates neck-and-neck for months now. Most results have been within the polls&rsquo; margin of error.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Some anxious election watchers have also looked to betting markets, with one of the most popular, the Polymarket betting average, currently showing Trump with a 65% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Polls have always been a murky business, but after underestimating Trump&rsquo;s strength in 2016, many poll strategists changed their methodology in an attempt to ensure accurate estimations. This could result in an overcorrection, leading to an underestimation of Harris&rsquo;s support, but it could also just be more accurate polling.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>According to a recent <em>New York Times<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/31\/us\/politics\/trump-harris-partisan-polls.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">report<\/a>, partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election, which could wind up being useful evidence for their case of cheating if Trump does not win.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,&rdquo; Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, told the outlet. &ldquo;Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1867770\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1867770\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voters uncertain about polls turn to the stock market for insights<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2910,"featured_media":2362225,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/wall-street-stock-market.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[44098,35133,4223,32076],"class_list":["post-2362224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-poll-accuracy","tag-stock-market","tag-voters","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/wall-street-stock-market.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2362224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2910"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2362224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2362224\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2362225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2362224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2362224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2362224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}