{"id":2361320,"date":"2024-10-29T23:14:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T03:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/key-swing-state-moves-from-toss-up-to-lean-republican-other-states-shifting-too\/"},"modified":"2024-10-29T23:20:29","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T03:20:29","slug":"key-swing-state-moves-from-toss-up-to-lean-republican-other-states-shifting-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/key-swing-state-moves-from-toss-up-to-lean-republican-other-states-shifting-too\/","title":{"rendered":"Key Swing State Moves from Toss-Up to Lean Republican, Other States Shifting, Too"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fkey-swing-state-moves-from-toss-up-to-lean-republican-other-states-shifting-too%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2361320&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Fox News has updated \u2062its Power Rankings, shifting Arizona from a &#8220;toss-up&#8221; to &#8220;lean Republican&#8221; ahead\u200c of the \u2063November 5 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This change \u2064coincided with a \u2064new \u200cpoll by Data Orbital showing Trump leading \u2062Harris\u200d among likely voters in \u200cArizona, 49.7% to 41.9%. \u200dAdditionally, the \u200cpoll indicates Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake \u2064is narrowly ahead of Democrat Rep. Ruben \u200cGallego, 45.2% to 44.5%.<\/p>\n<p>The poll, conducted from October 26-28, surveyed \u200c550 likely voters and has a \u200cmargin of\u200c error of +\/- 4.26%. Trump has consistently led Harris in\u200d various polls conducted in Arizona since August. Relevant issues \u200csuch as \u2062immigration\u200b appear\u2064 to play a significant role in \u200dvoters&#8217; decisions, with Trump\u200d holding a 10-point advantage over Harris on this topic in the \u200cstate.<\/p>\n<p>The report also highlights that Arizona is still \u2062a\u200c competitive race, \u200cbut <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">ongoing polling trends suggest<\/a> a Republican lean. The latest poll reflects \u2063a trend across several other states, with Trump also recently gaining\u2062 ground \u2064in New\u2062 Hampshire and narrowing the gap in states like New Mexico \u200cand Virginia. Trump&#8217;s campaign\u2063 director noted that voter registration trends are \u2064favorable for\u2062 Republicans in Arizona, suggesting a significant shift in\u2064 the\u2063 electorate\u2062 since the\u200d last election.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_1)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Fox News moved Arizona from toss-up to lean Republican on Tuesday in its last Power Rankings before the Nov. 5 election between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n<p>The change came the same day a new <a href=\"https:\/\/dataorbital.com\/2024\/10\/new-data-orbital-arizona-2024-general-election-statewide-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> released by Data Orbital showed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/donald-trump-cant-lose-incredible-early-voting-trend-continues-political-expert-mark-halperin-says\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Trump<\/a> ahead of Harris among likely voters in the Grand Canyon State 49.7 percent to 41.9 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The Orbital survey also showed Republican U.S. Senate candidate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/bill-clinton-comments-kari-lakes-looks-mind-wanders-off-pro-kamala-rally\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kari Lake<\/a> taking the lead over Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a closer 45.2 to 44.5 percent.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">&#128202; ARIZONA POLL: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Data_Orbital?\">@Data_Orbital<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#128997; Trump: 49.7% (+7.8)<br \/> &#128998; Harris: 41.9%<br \/> &#129002; Other: 2.0%<br \/> &mdash;&mdash;<br \/> AZ Senate<br \/> &#128997; Lake: 45.2% (+0.7)<br \/> &#128998; Gallego: 44.5%<br \/> &#129002; Other: 1.6%<\/p>\n<p>#8 (2.8\/3.0) | 10\/26-28 | 550 LV | &plusmn;4.26<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/f0qlS4G1kE\">https:\/\/t.co\/f0qlS4G1kE<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WGwtGrFNNX\">pic.twitter.com\/WGwtGrFNNX<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1851321905493561409?\">October 29, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>The poll was conducted from Oct. 26-28 with 550 voters, with a margin of error of +\/- 4.26 percent.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;In eight high-quality polls conducted in this state since August, Trump has been ahead in seven. His edge has been between 1-6 points,&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/power-rankings-arizona-trumps-lose-election-anyones-win\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fox News<\/a> reported.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;That advantage does not exist for Harris or Trump in any other battleground state.&nbsp;Immigration continues to be a highly important issue in Arizona, which s a border with Mexico,&rdquo; the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/islamist-kadyrov-ready-to-unleash-thousands-of-chechen-fighters-on-ukraine-for-putin\/\" title=\"Islamist Kadyrov Ready to Unleash Thousands of Chechen Fighters on Ukraine for Putin\">news outlet added<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A Wall Street Journal swing states <a href=\"https:\/\/prod-i.a.dj.com\/public\/resources\/documents\/WSJ_Swing_State_Poll_Oct_2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survey<\/a> conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 8 found that 25 percent of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/judge-sides-arizona-ranchers-biden-harris-admin-rules-border-wall-reversal-broke-federal-law\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arizona<\/a> voters listed immigration as their top issue in the presidential race.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has a 10 percentage point lead over Harris on the issue with Arizonans. The poll was conducted among 600 registered voters in the state.<\/p>\n<p>Fox concluded while Arizona is still a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dems-in-tough-elections-ignore-pelosis-push-to-tout-bbb\/\" title=\"Dems In Tough Elections Ignore Pelosi\u2019s Push To Tout BBB\">highly competitive race<\/a>, &ldquo;statewide polling has been directionally consistent and immigration reigns supreme.&nbsp;Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean R.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">New FOX NEWS PRESIDENTIAL POWER RACE RATINGS FORECAST: Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Rating Change gives former President Trump a slight 230-226 Electoral College Vote lead although the Overall Race remains still a TOSS UP.<br \/> &#128071; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jeqqszMQM1\">pic.twitter.com\/jeqqszMQM1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Daniel Gruhn (@dg_sailingfan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/dg_sailingfan\/status\/1851255256778182743?\">October 29, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In addition to Arizona, the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/democratic-stronghold-suddenly-becomes-battleground-state-trump-takes-lead-poll-shocker\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Hampshire<\/a> Journal\/Praecones Analytica <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/donald-trump-takes-shock-lead-over-kamala-harris-new-hampshire-poll-1975833\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> released Sunday found Trump with a slight edge over Harris, 50.2 to 49.8 percent in the Granite State. The survey was conducted from Oct. 24 to 26 with 622 registered voters. It has a margin of error of &nbsp;+\/- 5.12 percent, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/donald-trump-takes-shock-lead-over-kamala-harris-new-hampshire-poll-1975833\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Newsweek<\/a> reported.<\/p>\n<p>The Five-Thirty-Eight <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/new-hampshire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">average of polls<\/a> in New Hampshire shows Trump narrowing Harris&rsquo; lead from 7 percent on Oct. 1 to 5.2 percent on Oct. 29.<\/p>\n<p>Other non-swing state potential pickups for Trump include New Mexico and Virginia.<\/p>\n<p>In New Mexico, the race has narrowed slightly, according to the Five-Thirty-Eight <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/new-mexico\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">average<\/a> from Oct. 1, when Harris held an 8.4 percent edge, to a 7.1 percent now. Trump plans to hold a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.koat.com\/article\/trump-coming-to-albuquerque-to-hold-rally-on-thursday\/62728138\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rally<\/a> in Albuquerque on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican is also slated for a <a href=\"https:\/\/event.donaldjtrump.com\/events\/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rally<\/a> in Virginia on Saturday, again where Harris&rsquo; lead has narrowed slightly to 49.9 to 43.6 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Republican National Committee political director James Blair <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/power-rankings-arizona-trumps-lose-election-anyones-win\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told<\/a> Fox News on Tuesday that the network is right that the polling is looking good for Trump overall in the swing states and particularly in Arizona.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Trump Political Director <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JamesBlairUSA?\">@JamesBlairUSA<\/a> lays out the race with a week to go:<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We are turning out more of our low- and mid-propensity voters than she is across the board. We have more new registered voters than she does &hellip; we&rsquo;re seeing those people activate and turn out early.&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nJjsjdV2Yd\">pic.twitter.com\/nJjsjdV2Yd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TrumpWarRoom\/status\/1851254120868426015?\">October 29, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Further, he said it is also worth noting that the polling doesn&rsquo;t necessarily pick up &ldquo;the voter registration gains for Republicans in Arizona, specifically, which is also a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-same-party-that-stole-military-votes-in-michigan-and-georgia-is-now-forcing-military-men-and-women-to-sleep-on-the-floor-in-a-dc-parking-garage\/\" title=\"The Same Party that Stole Military Votes in Michigan and Georgia \u2014 Is Now Forcing Military Men and Women to Sleep on the Floor in a DC Parking Garage\">national trend<\/a>.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Blair explained that Republicans had about a 130,000 registered voter advantage over Democrats in Arizona in 2020. Now it is over 280,000.<\/p>\n<p>The state went for Democrat <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/democratic-insider-says-gotta-lock-joe-bidens-latest-miscue-threatens-hurt-harris-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joe Biden<\/a> in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes, the narrowest win for the president in any of the swing states.<\/p>\n<p>Blair went on to argue that pollsters tend to set their samples using the 2020 party electorate breakdown as a guide, but since that election, Arizona and other battleground states have moved three to five percent to the right.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! 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This adjustment coincided with a Data Orbital poll indicating Trump leading Harris among likely voters in Arizona, 49.7% to 41.9%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2361321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Donald-Trump-12.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[42893,33017,43987,32115],"class_list":["post-2361320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-elections-2024","tag-political-analysis","tag-republican-shift","tag-swing-states"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Donald-Trump-12.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2361320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2361320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2361320\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2361321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2361320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2361320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2361320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}