{"id":2361233,"date":"2024-10-29T18:53:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T22:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/djt-stock-surges-as-election-betting-odds-show-trump-as-clear-favorite\/"},"modified":"2024-10-29T18:57:41","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T22:57:41","slug":"djt-stock-surges-as-election-betting-odds-show-trump-as-clear-favorite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/djt-stock-surges-as-election-betting-odds-show-trump-as-clear-favorite\/","title":{"rendered":"DJT stock surges as election betting odds show Trump as clear favorite"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdjt-stock-surges-as-election-betting-odds-show-trump-as-clear-favorite%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2361233&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>As Election Day approaches, \u200dTrump Media &#038; Technology (DJT) stock has seen a \u2064significant rise,\u200c attributed to former President Donald Trump&#8217;s\u200b growing lead in the \u200bbetting odds for the 2024 election against Vice President Kamala Harris. The stock surged nearly 250% over the past month, with a 10% increase on the day of reporting, bringing its valuation above that of Elon Musk&#8217;s X platform. Trump&#8217;s current betting \u2063odds\u2064 lead marks a stark turnaround, as he trails no longer, leading by an average of 26.8 points against\u2064 Harris\u2014a significant change\u200d from earlier in the election \u2063cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Recent polling indicates Trump is favored in vital swing states, outperforming\u2063 his previous standing\u2063 in the last two elections, although Harris retains an edge in the popular vote. The stock surge\u2063 parallels optimism \u200camong Republicans due to positive early voting turnout and registration numbers in traditionally Democratic strongholds and swing states. Betting odds also shift favorably for Republicans \u2063in House and Senate races.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">article discusses underlying voter sentiment<\/a>, with\u2063 a majority believing the country is heading in the wrong direction, which could play a crucial role in the election&#8217;s outcome. \u2062Despite the favorable odds for Trump,\u200c the uncertainty remains,\u200c as the election could\u200b still yield unexpected results.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">DJT stock surges as betting odds show Trump as clear favorite days before election<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1845754\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Trump Media &amp; Technology (DJT) stock is soaring one week from Election Day as former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3202747\/who-will-win-election-2024-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">election betting odds<\/a> to win the 2024 election.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>DJT stock is up about 10% on the day, bringing its total valuation higher than Elon Musk&rsquo;s X. It&rsquo;s up nearly 250% in the last month, and the stock&rsquo;s surge coincides with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3183476\/trump-surges-ahead-harris-election-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">major shift<\/a> in the election betting odds.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has held the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3199247\/2024-election-betting-odds-trump-gop-swing-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">betting odds lead<\/a> for 24 consecutive days after trailing for 26 days straight. He now leads Vice President Kamala Harris in the odds by a greater margin than he has all cycle, boasting a 26.8-point <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/betting-odds\/2024\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">average lead<\/a>. This timing lines up with when his DJT stock began to shoot up in value.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/live-blog\/2024-election-campaign-live-updates-harris-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump pulls ahead nationally, polling better than 2016 and 2020<\/h2>\n<p>Most betting odds and polls have Trump ahead in almost every swing state. He also pulled ahead by 0.4 points in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">national polling<\/a>, which is more predictive of the popular vote. While Trump didn&rsquo;t win the popular vote in 2016 or 2020, he outperformed national polling by 1.1 and 2.7 points in the last two elections, respectively. Harris is still the betting favorite to win the popular vote, however.<\/p>\n<p>There are generally considered to be seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona. Trump is favored in the odds to win all seven states and is only trailing in the polls in Michigan, where Harris recently retook a 0.5 percentage point lead.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has also made four Democratic-leaning states somewhat competitive: Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Minnesota. Bettors give him a 16.5%, 20.5%, 12%, and 13% chance to win those states, respectively, while Harris leads in the polls by 5.8, 6.3, 7.7, and 4.3 points. Harris has not made any Republican-leaning states competitive, with her best chances to expand the electoral map coming in Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, where bettors give her between a 5% and 7% chance to win.<\/p>\n<p>If the bettors are correct, Trump will win the election with 312 Electoral College votes. Picking up just one competitive Democratic-leaning state could add between 4 and 13 electoral votes to his count, and winning all four would add 35.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats were favored to win the House majority from July until last week when the GOP pulled 1 point ahead in the betting odds. Republicans have since expanded this lead to 3 points.<\/p>\n<p>In the Senate, betting odds favor Republicans to win a 52-seat majority. However, there are five races where the GOP underdog has mounted a comeback, and according to the founder of <em>ElectionBettingOdds.com<\/em>, Maxim Lott, it is likely Republicans win <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3202747\/who-will-win-election-2024-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">at least one<\/a> of them.<\/p>\n<p>According to Polymarket, the once-longshot Republican challengers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada now all have greater than a 20% <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">chance of winning<\/a>. Pennsylvania&rsquo;s Dave McCormick has a 31% chance, Michigan&rsquo;s Mike Rogers has a 33% chance, Wisconsin&rsquo;s Eric Hovde has a 35% chance, Nevada&rsquo;s Sam Brown has a 26% chance, and Arizona&rsquo;s Kari Lake has a 26%% chance.<\/p>\n<p>At their lowest points this cycle, McCormick was given a 13% chance, Rogers had a 18% chance, Hovde had a 13% chance, Brown had a 12% chance, and Lake had an 11% chance.<\/p>\n<p>Trump gained 2.1 points on Friday, the day of his podcast interview with Joe Rogan, and another 0.5 the following day. He gained 0.3 points on Sunday, the day of his highly anticipated rally at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan, and another 1.6 the day after. Harris will have a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3206975\/harris-campaign-builds-anticipation-crowd-speech-ellipse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">&ldquo;major&rdquo; event<\/a> at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, where she will argue to voters that the 2024 election is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3205719\/harris-to-frame-campaign-referendum-trump-not-her-or-biden-in-ellipse-speech\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">referendum<\/a> on Trump.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is DJT stock surging a week before the election?<\/h2>\n<p>While some people are betting on the election through platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi, others see an opportunity to profit off of the election by investing in Trump Media &amp; Technology.<\/p>\n<p>While DJT stock plummeted from $79.38 in March to $11.75 at the end of September, Trump&rsquo;s early October rise in the election betting odds coincided with the stock&rsquo;s surge to approximately $52 a week away from the election.<\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&amp;P 500, and the NASDAQ indices began uptrends of their own at the same time that Trump took the betting odds lead and DJT stock began to sore. The S&amp;P rose over 3%, as did the DJI before correcting down, and NASDAQ rose by about 4% since Oct. 7.<\/p>\n<p>The staggering Tuesday DJT stock price rise comes as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/polls-close-for-several-high-profile-primary-races-in-texas\/\" title=\"Polls Close for Several High-Profile Primary Races in Texas\">early voting figures<\/a> have shown overwhelmingly optimistic turnout numbers for Republicans. The GOP is outperforming previous elections and outright leading in states such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3207236\/republicans-boost-nevada-early-voting-lead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Nevada<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kold.com\/2024\/10\/29\/republicans-lead-early-vote-numbers-arizona-even-though-democrats-turnout-is-higher\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Arizona<\/a>, and even Democratic stronghold <a href=\"https:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/news\/politics-government\/article294650339.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Miami-Dade county<\/a> in Florida.<\/p>\n<p>Before the early voting figures started coming in, Republicans pointed to voter registration numbers as an early omen of success. Swing-state registration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/09\/29\/voter-registrations-surge-swing-states\/75090346007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">spiked<\/a> this cycle, and Democrats <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7071878\/harris-democrats-swing-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">lost<\/a> ground on the voter rolls in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has also never polled better than he is polling in the final stretch of the 2024 election. He leads nationally by 0.4 points, but he trailed President Joe Biden by 7.4 points on Oct. 29, 2020, and he trailed Hillary Clinton by 4.6 points on Oct. 29, 2016. In 2020, Trump wasn&rsquo;t even favored to win Florida &mdash; he polled just under 3 points <a href=\"https:\/\/www-270towin-com.webpkgcache.com\/doc\/-\/s\/www.270towin.com\/2020-polls-biden-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">behind<\/a> yet won by 3.4 points.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bettor&rsquo;s case for Trump<\/h2>\n<p>Even though Trump is favored to win the presidency and is given a 62.8% chance to do so on average, the election is not a foregone conclusion. Trump only had a 20% chance to win in 2016 but still pulled it off.<\/p>\n<p>Bettors favoring Trump are putting weight into the polling data, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/new-arizona-voter-registration-numbers-and-theyre-fantastic-for-maga\/\" title=\"New Arizona voter registration figures are in \u2014 great news for MAGA supporters\">voter registration figures<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/primary-election-counting-process-in-texas-largest-county-a-disaster-says-lt-governor\/\" title=\"Primary Election Counting Process in Texas&#039; Largest County a &#039;Disaster,&#039; Says Lt. Governor\">early voting results<\/a>, which don&rsquo;t paint a complete picture but do look optimistic for Republicans in November. With bettors giving all seven swing states to Trump and even giving him a decent chance in four more states, Harris is not favored in any swing states, and there are no additional states bettors think she can win.<\/p>\n<p>While Harris is not the incumbent president, she is part of the incumbent administration, and Biden currently has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/approval\/joe-biden\/approval-rating\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">job approval<\/a> rating of 40.9. Trump had a rating of 44.4 on Oct. 29, 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic derailing the last year of his presidency. Most people, 64%, believe the country is on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/state-of-the-union\/direction-of-country\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">wrong track<\/a> today, while 60.5% felt this way four years ago.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bettor&rsquo;s case for Harris<\/h2>\n<p>While Harris is the betting underdog, if the election were simulated 100 times, she would likely win in 36 of those runs. Bettors favoring Harris are looking at value first and foremost. On Polymarket, a $100 bet on Harris would win $297.62. The same bet on Trump would only win $150.15.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Experts are calling the 2024 election a &ldquo;toss-up&rdquo; and the &ldquo;closest election in history,&rdquo; with every swing state polling within the margin of error.&nbsp; If she is going to win, she&rsquo;ll need to outperform the polls, which is something historian Allan Lichtman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3193339\/2024-election-polls-underestimating-turnout-kamala-harris-allan-lichtman\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">predicts<\/a> she will do.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Those predicting a Harris victory may be betting on early-voting Republicans to cannibalize the Election Day Trump vote and produce an underwhelming overall turnout compared to projections. Harris bettors may also predict Republicans will get complacent on Election Day, thinking they have the election in the bag because of the polls, betting odds, and other metrics. If these two things happen, Harris will outperform the polls.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1845754\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1845754\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DJT stock rises as Trump leads in election betting odds<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2670,"featured_media":2361234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/donald-trump-betting-odds.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[43977,43979,36838,43978,43980],"class_list":["post-2361233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner","tag-djt","tag-election-betting","tag-market-trends","tag-stock-surge","tag-trump-favorite"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/donald-trump-betting-odds.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2361233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2670"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2361233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2361233\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2361234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2361233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2361233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2361233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}