{"id":2359763,"date":"2024-10-25T17:23:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-25T21:23:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/cnn-analyst-thinks-tight-polls-could-give-way-to-an-electoral-college-blowout\/"},"modified":"2024-10-25T17:25:26","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T21:25:26","slug":"cnn-analyst-thinks-tight-polls-could-give-way-to-an-electoral-college-blowout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/cnn-analyst-thinks-tight-polls-could-give-way-to-an-electoral-college-blowout\/","title":{"rendered":"CNN Analyst Thinks Tight Polls Could Give Way to an Electoral College \u2018Blowout\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcnn-analyst-thinks-tight-polls-could-give-way-to-an-electoral-college-blowout%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2359763&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In a recent discussion on CNN, data expert Harry Enten examined the potential outcomes of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sen-rand-paul-offers-dr-rachel-levine-as-example-of-radical-agenda-riding-bidens-coattails\/\" title=\"Sen. Rand Paul Offers Dr. Rachel Levine As Example Of Radical Agenda Riding Biden\u2019s Coattails\">upcoming presidential election<\/a> between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. He suggested \u2064that, despite perceptions of a tight race, there&#8217;s a possibility that one candidate could achieve a significant Electoral College victory\u2014or &#8220;relative blowout.&#8221;\u200c Enten cited polling data indicating the race is currently very close, with Trump leading in key battleground states and the overall national average showing a tie. However, he warned that polling can be inaccurate and historically, \u200dpolling errors \u200din swing states can lead to\u2063 substantial shifts in electoral outcomes. He noted that trends from previous\u200b elections suggest that errors tend to skew in one candidate&#8217;s favor, implying a higher\u200d chance of a decisive win.<\/p>\n<p>Enten provided statistical analysis, estimating a 60% likelihood that the \u200deventual winner would secure over 300 electoral votes. Both \u2062Enten and CNN host\u200b John Berman emphasized that while\u200d the election appears competitive, small changes\u2063 in\u2062 voter sentiment could drastically alter the perceived closeness of the\u2063 race.\u200d Additionally, Enten argued\u200d that Trump has a viable chance of winning the\u200c popular vote, referencing recent polls that show him performing better than in previous elections. Ultimately, he concluded that despite the current close margins,\u200c the winner could emerge with a significant margin in the Electoral College based on\u200d historical \u200cpatterns and polling trends.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> \t\t\t\t<script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (REP_0)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>CNN data expert Harry Enten argued Thursday, based on the history of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/series-of-recent-national-polls-released-its-big-for-trump-but-biden-wont-like-it\/\" title=\"New Polls Favor Trump, Biden Displeased\">swing state polling<\/a>, that either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could be heading for an Electoral College &ldquo;relative blowout.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>And if recent election cycle trends hold, that candidate would be Trump.<\/p>\n<p>CNN host John Berman introduced the segment with Enten, noting the reporting on this year&rsquo;s race has been focused on it being &ldquo;historically close.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;What if it&rsquo;s not?&rdquo; he asked.<\/p>\n<p>The Real Clear Polling national average shows the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">race tied<\/a>, while Trump leads in all seven <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/democrats-already-scrambling-blue-wall-collapses-slipping-behind-another-key-state\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">battleground states<\/a> on average by<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/elections\/president\/2024\/battleground-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> less than one percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;As close as it is, and we do believe it&lsquo;s super close right now, that also means that if things change, even just a little bit, it&rsquo;s not really close,&rdquo; Berman said.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It isn&rsquo;t,&rdquo; Enten agreed. &ldquo;So we have been talking about the idea that there&lsquo;s going to be a historically close election. I think I might have said it on this particular program, but in fact &mdash; will the winner get at least 300 electoral votes? The answer is, majority [chance] yes,&rdquo; according to an aggregate of forecast models.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/5FpZbtzFI2g?si=6WFxb5a8ptPTEQxu\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;There is a &hellip; 60 percent chance that the winner of this election gets at least 300 electoral votes versus just a 40 percent chance that the winner ends up getting less than 300 electoral votes,&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/cnn-analyst-deeper-look-polls-shows-kamala-harris-win-historically-unprecedented\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enten<\/a> added.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;So for all the talk that we&rsquo;ve had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College,&rdquo; he contended.<\/p>\n<p>Enten explained that in recent elections, the swing states have tended to swing together in terms of <a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3YuVZYV\">polling versus actual election results<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;If you look across the seven key swing states, the seven closest states, in all of them the margin right now is under 2 points &mdash; under 2 points &mdash; but keep in mind, polling ain&lsquo;t perfect, my dear friends,&rdquo; he cautioned.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;On average since 1972, in the battleground states, in the key swing states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points,&rdquo; Enten said.<\/p>\n<p>The data guru then illustrated that if the same holds true this year and all the battleground states go in one direction or the other, it could mean either a 312 to 226 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/census-shift-electoral-college-map-make-difference-trump-24\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Electoral College<\/a> win for Trump over Harris, or a 319 to 219 win for the vice president.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;History tells us that it is more likely than not that all of the swing state polling errors would move in one direction,&rdquo; Enten said. &ldquo;So in 2012, 92 percent of the states moved in Obama&lsquo;s direction.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>However, &ldquo;In 2016, 83 percent of the swing states move together because the polls underdid Donald Trump, of course we all remember that. And how about in 2020? 100 percent of the swing state poll averages underestimated Donald Trump, and so he did better than a lot of folks thought,&rdquo; the CNN analyst said.<\/p>\n<p>He concluded, &ldquo;So this time around, don&rsquo;t be surprised at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-snaps-after-peter-doocy-confronts-him-why-do-you-think-ill-always-take-your-questions\/\" title=\"Biden Snaps After Peter Doocy Confronts Him: &#039;Why Do You Think I&#039;ll Always Take Your Questions?&#039;\">swing-state polls<\/a> when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states, and that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout with of one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>In a post on X on Friday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/watch-cnn-analyst-drops-hammer-kamala-shows-tim-walz-useless-calling-mistake-may-cost\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enten<\/a> argued that Trump has a shot to win the popular vote, based on current polling.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;You don&rsquo;t have to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally,&rdquo; he said, citing Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls published this week.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;[Trump] could win the popular vote, which is something he would absolutely love to do,&rdquo; Enten said, noting the last Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004, and before that, it was his father George H.W. Bush in 1988.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">There&rsquo;s a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.<\/p>\n<p>He&rsquo;d be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years &amp; only 2nd in 36 years. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Pp4LJPwUZe\">pic.twitter.com\/Pp4LJPwUZe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ForecasterEnten\/status\/1849806868266287350?\">October 25, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In 2020, the RCP average had Biden up nationally in the popular vote by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2020\/trump-vs-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">7.2 percent<\/a> over Trump, but the Democrat won by 4.5 percent, so 2.7 percent less.<\/p>\n<p>And in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2016\/trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson-vs-stein\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">3.3 percent<\/a> nationally, but carried the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/campaign-damage-control-tim-walz-says-wants-radically-change-election-rules\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">popular vote<\/a> by just 2.1 percent.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\"> \t\t\t \t<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* Name<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> \t\t\t\t\t\t<label>* <\/label> \t\t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> \t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<label>* Message<\/label> \t\t\t\t\t<br \/> \t\t\t\t\t<textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> \t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\"> \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> \t\t<script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! 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If current trends continue, Trump is likely to be the candidate who benefits. CNN host John Berman opened the discussion by highlighting that this year&#8217;s race has been characterized as &#8220;historically close,&#8221; prompting him to ask, &#8220;What if it\u2019s not?&#8221; The Real Clear Polling national average indicates a tie in the race, with Trump leading in all seven battleground states by less than one percent on average<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2359764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Harry-Enton.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[7428,9373,41166,15638],"class_list":["post-2359763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-analysis","tag-cnn","tag-electoral-college","tag-polls"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Harry-Enton.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2359763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2359763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2359763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2359764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2359763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2359763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2359763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}