{"id":2356292,"date":"2024-10-17T16:23:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T20:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/harris-losing-the-edge-polling-guru-hands-kamala-devastating-update-as-election-gets-even-closer\/"},"modified":"2024-10-17T16:24:37","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T20:24:37","slug":"harris-losing-the-edge-polling-guru-hands-kamala-devastating-update-as-election-gets-even-closer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/harris-losing-the-edge-polling-guru-hands-kamala-devastating-update-as-election-gets-even-closer\/","title":{"rendered":"Harris Losing the Edge? Polling Guru Hands Kamala Devastating Update as Election Gets Even Closer"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fharris-losing-the-edge-polling-guru-hands-kamala-devastating-update-as-election-gets-even-closer%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2356292&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The upcoming election is projected\u200b to be a tight\u200c race, with both candidates reportedly facing an evenly matched scenario. Statistician Nate \u2064Silver has \u2063indicated that Vice \u2062President Kamala Harris has a 50% chance of\u2062 winning the\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/its-happening-trump-up-7-points-in-final-selzer-iowa-poll-latest-states-poll-has-trump-up-322-to-216-for-biden-in-national-electoral-college\/\" title=\"IT&#039;S HAPPENING: Trump Up 7 Points in Final Selzer Iowa Poll -- Latest States Poll Has Trump Up 322 to 216 for Biden in National Electoral College\">electoral college<\/a>, showing a close contest with former\u2064 President \u2064Donald Trump. This toss-up situation \u200dis further complicated by Harris&#8217;s recent interview with Fox News, where her \u200dresponses\u200c on critical issues, particularly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-tells-packed-house-leaving-easy-life-was-worth-it\/\" title=\"Trump: Leaving &#039;Easy&#039; Life Worth It, Tells Packed House\">illegal \u2062immigration<\/a>, were\u200d criticized\u200b as \u2062unconvincing. \u200bMeanwhile, presidential \u200dbetting odds\u200c have shifted in\u200c favor\u2064 of Trump, giving him a 58% chance of winning compared to \u200dHarris&#8217;s 41%. Various\u2063 unconventional prediction\u2062 methods, like a\u200c cookie tally from a Pennsylvania bakery, \u200balso\u200d suggest Trump \u2062is leading. Despite having\u2062 some historical figures predicting a Harris victory, the \u2063general sentiment indicates \u2063that neither candidate should feel secure as the election approaches in less than three weeks.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<section> <script>console.log(\"ad slot (AC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC1)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC2)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC3)\")<\/script><script>console.log(\"ad slot (IC4)\")<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Election Day is less than three weeks away and the predictions are looking closer than either side would like to admit.<\/p>\n<p>The latest from statistician and pollster Nate Silver sees <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/battleground-state-supreme-court-shakes-2024-election-tosses-mail-ballot-decision\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this race<\/a> as dead even.<\/p>\n<p>On his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">official website<\/a>, Silver posted that Vice President Kamala Harris, &ldquo;has a 50 percent chance of winning the electoral college. We&rsquo;re in pure tossup terratory [sic], and Harris&rsquo; slight lead last week has disappeared.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/special-thanks-to-the-new-york-times-for-accidentally-providing-the-data-that-will-bring-down-biden-and-crack-the-biggest-vote-fraud-in-history\/\" title=\"SPECIAL THANKS to The New York Times for Accidentally Providing the Data that Will Bring Down Biden and CRACK THE BIGGEST VOTE FRAUD IN HISTORY\">real news<\/a> here is that Silver released his prediction on Wednesday afternoon&nbsp;<em>before<\/em> the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/bret-baier-4-kamala-harris-staffers-frantically-waving-hands-forced-dismount-end-interview\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris interview<\/a> with Fox News anchor Brett Baier had aired on the network.<\/p>\n<p>While <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/kamala-harris-donald-trumpl-polls-nate-silver-1969829\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Newsweek reports<\/a> this is the first time Silver&rsquo;s model has given Harris and former President Donald Trump an equal chance of winning, her Fox News interview may show a now even race swing more towards Trump in the weeks before Nov. 5.<\/p>\n<p> <script type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\tif ( getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"stnvideo\").remove() \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>Just consider how abysmal her performance was.<\/p>\n<p>Both Harris and her running mate<span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">, Minnesota Gov.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/tim-walz-makes-mistake-may-come-back-bite-firing-shot-jd-vances-life-growing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tim Walz,<\/a> decided to make<\/span>&nbsp;more media appearances in the face of mounting criticism that the campaign was keeping her out of the public eye.<\/p>\n<p>Although Harris appeared under friendly circumstances on shows like &ldquo;The View&rdquo; and &ldquo;The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,&rdquo; Wednesday&rsquo;s interview with Baier was arguably the first time she put herself in an adversarial setting.<\/p>\n<p>Baier did not come off as hostile or aggressive towards Harris, but he did push her on the issues.<\/p>\n<p>Despite getting the most predictable questions about her campaign &mdash; notably ones about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/border-patrol-union-declares-one-man-can-fix-immigration-crisis-endorses-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">illegal immigration<\/a> &mdash; Harris still stumbled and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/whistleblower-democrats-stole-votes-for-joe-biden-from-every-developmentally-disabled-person-in-milwaukee-homes-she-spoke-with\/\" title=\"Whistleblower: Democrats Stole Votes for Joe Biden from Every Developmentally Disabled Person in Milwaukee Homes She Spoke With\">couldn&#038;rsquo<\/a>;t produce anything coherent that viewers could discern as a policy position.<\/p>\n<p>The Harris campaign hoped more public exposure would allow her to take a more confident lead over Trump, but for anyone who puts weight in Silver&rsquo;s model, he&rsquo;s got bad news.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, presidential betting odds swung dramatically in Trump&rsquo;s favor as RealClearPolling&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/betting-odds\/2024\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting odds data<\/a> put him at a 58.1 percent chance of winning to Harris&rsquo; 40.9.<\/p>\n<p>Historian Alan Lichtman, known for his &ldquo;13 Keys to the White House&rdquo; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/video\/2024\/09\/05\/allan_lichtmans_13_keys_to_the_white_house_predicts_kamala_harris_victory.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">predicts a Harris victory<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman is known for his accuracy in predicting every election correctly since 1984, with the exception of 2000.<\/p>\n<p>More unorthodox methods exist for determining who the next president will be. Lochel&rsquo;s Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, does a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/bakery-behind-presidential-candidate-cookie-tally-reveals-one-side-crushing-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">presidential &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/bakery-selling-presidential-candidate-cookies-reveals-trump-is-crushing-harris-in-the-cookie-tally\/\" title=\"Bakery Selling Presidential Candidate Cookies Reveals Trump Is Crushing Harris in the \u2018Cookie Tally&#039;\">cookie tally&#038;rdquo<\/a>;<\/a> that began in 2012 where customers can purchase cookies with either candidate&rsquo;s name on them as the bakery keeps count of who sells more.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/donald-trump-is-winning-this-hatboro-bakery-s-presidential-cookie-poll\/ar-AA1rUmLV?ocid=BingNewsSerp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Philadelphia Enquirer reported<\/a> 19,000 cookies had been sold with more than 18,000 being for Trump.<\/p>\n<p>With Silver putting this election as a toss-up, the money going for Trump, Lichtman giving the nod to Harris and the cookies putting Trump in landslide territory, the thinking person trying to predict this election has some factors to weigh.<\/p>\n<p>While the Harris campaign might not be thrilled with Silver&rsquo;s model and the fallout from Wednesday&rsquo;s interview, no candidate should be sitting comfortably.<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative;\">\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-submit-correction inner-content\">\n<div class=\"correction-form\">\n<form style=\"display: none;\">\n<div class=\"sc-name-field\"> <label>* Name<\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"name\" required> <\/div>\n<div class=\"sc--field\"> <label>* <\/label> <br \/> <input type=\"text\" name=\"\" required> <\/div>\n<p> <label>* Message<\/label> <br \/> <textarea name=\"message\" required><\/textarea>  <\/p>\n<div class=\"required-message\" style=\"display: none; padding-bottom: 15px;\">* All fields are required.<\/div>\n<p> <input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); firefly_sc();\">  <\/p>\n<div class=\"firefly-sc-confirm\" style=\"display: none;\">Success!<\/div>\n<\/p><\/form>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <script> \t\t\tfunction firefly_sc() { \t\t\t\tif( typeof window.captchaPublicKey==typeof undefined ){ \t\t\t\t\tconsole.error('window.captchaPublicKey is not defined'); \t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\tgrecaptcha.execute( window.captchaPublicKey, { action: 'submit_correction' } ).then( function( token ) { \t\t\t\t\tvar opts={ \t\t\t\t\t\taction:    'firefly_sc_submit', \t\t\t\t\t\tname:      document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"name\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\t:     document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tmessage:   document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"message\"]' ).value, \t\t\t\t\t\tpost_id:   firefly_post_id, \t\t\t\t\t\tcap_token: token \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tvar inputs=[ 'name', '', 'message' ];  \t\t\t\t\tfor( var i=0; i <inputs.length; i++ ) if( ! ( opts[inputs[i]]=document.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction [name=\"' + inputs[i] + '\"]' ).value ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .required-message' ).style.display='block'; \t\t\t\t\t\treturn; \t\t\t\t\t}  \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction input[type=\"submit\"]' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).src=firefly_loading_gif_url; \t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='inline-block';  \t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( 'ma subbing' );  \t\t\t\t\tif( firefly_post_id ) opts['post_id']=firefly_post_id;  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Send the data using post with element id name and name2*\/ \t\t\t\t\tvar posting=jQuery.post( firefly_ajax_url, opts );  \t\t\t\t\t\/* Alerts the results *\/ \t\t\t\t\tposting.done( function( response ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tif( response.success ) { \t\t\t\t\t\t\tconsole.log( response.data ); \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-submitting-img' ).style.display='none'; \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.querySelector( '.entry-submit-correction .firefly-sc-confirm' ).style.display='block';  \t\t\t\t\t\t\tdataLayer.push( { 'event': 'submit-correction' } ); \t\t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t\t}); \t\t\t} \t\t<\/script>  <\/div>\n<p style=\"border: 1px solid #f5f5f5; padding: 16px;\">Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/advertise-us\/?wj_source=article\">Advertise Today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><script>console.log(\"ad slot (BA1)\")<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"ff-fancy-header-container\">  <\/div>\n<style> \t\t\t \t\t\t.insticator-unit.type-commenting{margin: 0 10px 25px 10px}@media screen and (max-width:1060px){#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{margin: 0 auto 25px auto !important;}}#div-insticator-ad-cmt-1, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-2, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-3, #div-insticator-ad-cmt-4{height: 280px !important; width: 336px !important} \t\t<\/style>\n<div class=\"insticator-unit type-commenting\">\n<div class=\"insticator-ads\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-1\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-2\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<div class=\"insticator-ads additional\">   <script data-cfasync=\"false\" type=\"text\/javascript\"> \t\t\t\t\tif ( ! getCookie( \"ff_subbed\" ) ) { \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\"); \t\t\t\t\t\tInsticator.ad.loadAd(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\"); \t\t\t\t\t} else { \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-3\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t\tdocument.getElementById(\"div-insticator-ad-cmt-4\").remove() \t\t\t\t\t} \t\t\t\t<\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Election Day is approaching in less than three weeks, and the forecasts are tighter than either party would prefer. According to statistician Nate Silver, the race is currently a dead heat. He stated on his website that Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50% chance of winning the electoral college, indicating that we are in a true toss-up situation and her previous slight lead has vanished. Notably, Silver made this prediction before Harris&#8217;s interview with Fox News anchor Brett Baier aired. While this marks the first instance where Silver&#8217;s model gives both Harris and former President Donald Trump equal odds of victory, her interview could potentially shift momentum toward Trump as November 5 approaches.<\/p>\n<p>Harris\u2019s recent media appearances were an attempt to counter criticism about her visibility during the campaign. Although she participated in friendly interviews on shows like &#8220;The View&#8221; and &#8220;The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,&#8221; her conversation with Baier was more challenging. While he wasn&#8217;t overtly aggressive, he did press her on key issues. Despite facing expected questions regarding illegal immigration, Harris struggled to articulate clear policy positions.<\/p>\n<p>The Harris campaign aimed for increased public exposure to gain an advantage over Trump; however, according to Silver\u2019s model and betting odds from RealClearPolling\u2014which now favor Trump at 58.1% compared to Harris&#8217;s 40.9%\u2014the outlook appears grim for them.<\/p>\n<p>Historian Alan Lichtman predicts a victory for Harris based on his successful track record since 1984 (excluding 2000). Additionally, unconventional methods like Lochel\u2019s Bakery in Pennsylvania have been tracking presidential preferences through cookie sales since 2012; recently reported figures show over 18,000 cookies sold for Trump versus just around 1,000 for Harris.<\/p>\n<p>With predictions indicating a toss-up from Silver while betting trends lean towards Trump and cookie sales suggest a landslide for him as well, it seems no candidate should feel secure as Election Day nears<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2356293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Harris-Doesnt-Look-Happy-1-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[33651],"tags":[36253,4021,4018,15698,6181],"class_list":["post-2356292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-western-journal","tag-election2024","tag-harris","tag-kamala","tag-polling","tag-updates"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Harris-Doesnt-Look-Happy-1-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2356292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2356292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2356292\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2356293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2356292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2356292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2356292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}