{"id":2356286,"date":"2024-10-17T16:09:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T20:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-election-polls-underestimating-turnout-for-harris-historian-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-10-17T16:10:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T20:10:07","slug":"2024-election-polls-underestimating-turnout-for-harris-historian-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-election-polls-underestimating-turnout-for-harris-historian-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 election polls \u2018underestimating\u2019 turnout for Harris: Historian &#8211; Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2F2024-election-polls-underestimating-turnout-for-harris-historian-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2356286&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>In a recent discussion, presidential historian Allan Lichtman critiqued current polls indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris is falling behind former President Donald Trump. Lichtman\u2062 argues that these \u2062polls are &#8220;underestimating&#8221; Democratic\u200b voting strength. He highlighted a positive trend \u200cin\u200d mail-in voting for Democrats\u2064 and cited a special election in New York \u200bwhere\u2064 a Democrat outperformed polls by seven points. Despite Harris leading nationally\u2063 by 1.5%, Trump is ahead \u200bin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/meet-the-republicans-trying-to-beat-tester-manchin-and-other-vulnerable-senate-democrats\/\" title=\"Introducing GOP contenders aiming to defeat Tester, Manchin, and other at-risk Senate Dems.\">crucial swing \u2062states<\/a>, raising concerns about\u200c Harris&#8217;s \u200celectoral\u2064 prospects. Lichtman believes if \u200cthe polls are slightly inaccurate, \u2063Democrats could perform better, \u2062especially in key states like Pennsylvania. However, \u2063betting odds suggest Trump currently \u2062has\u2064 a significant advantage, with a 57.6% \u2064chance of\u2063 winning compared to\u2064 Harris&#8217;s 41.3%.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Polls are &lsquo;underestimating&rsquo; turnout for Kamala Harris, Allan Lichtman argues<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1836543\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Presidential historian Allan Lichtman believes the current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/polls\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>polls<\/a> showing Vice President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/kamala-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Kamala Harris<\/a> sliding against former President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> are &ldquo;underestimating Democratic voting strength.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>During a Wednesday YouTube <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=oS_tglm9-Os\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>livestream<\/a>, the American University professor, who has predicted Harris would beat Trump in November, suggested that reports of Democrats pulling ahead in mail-in voting in certain states bode well for them. However, Democrats already made up the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2023\/07\/12\/voter-turnout-2018-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>majority<\/a> of mail-in voters, and Republicans have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.louderwithcrowder.com\/sources-october-17-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>reportedly<\/a> increased their relative shares in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength,&rdquo; Lichtman said. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman pointed to the special election to replace disgraced former House Republican <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/george-santos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>George Santos<\/a> in New York, noting &ldquo;the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Santos <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/justice\/3126079\/george-santos-pleads-guilty-to-campaign-fraud-felonies-and-faces-years-in-jail\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>pled guilty<\/a> to charges related to campaign fraud in August.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls &mdash; they will sweep Pennsylvania,&rdquo; Lichtman declared.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where things stand three weeks out<\/h2>\n<p>Harris currently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>leads<\/a> in national polling by 1.5%, but Trump has the polling lead in all seven of the swing states set to decide the 2024 election. He&rsquo;s up in Pennsylvania by 0.5%, North Carolina by 1.0%, Georgia by 0.9%, Arizona by 1.1%, Michigan by 0.9%, Nevada by 0.5%, and Wisconsin by 0.1%.<\/p>\n<p>If the polls do accurately predict the election outcome, Trump will win 312 electoral votes while only needing 270 to win the election. However, as experts such as Maxim Lott and John Stossel <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maximumtruth.org\/p\/can-polling-bias-help-predict-the\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>argued<\/a>, election <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3183476\/trump-surges-ahead-harris-election-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>betting odds<\/a> are an even better predictor of election outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3189809\/trump-harris-betting-odds-2024-swing-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>considerable lead<\/a> in the 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/presidential-election-betting-odds-have-donald-trump-as-clear-favorite-in-2024\/\" title=\"Presidential Election Betting Odds Have Donald Trump as Clear Favorite in 2024\">election betting odds<\/a>, with bettors <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/betting-odds\/2024\/president\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>signaling<\/a> he has a 57.6% chance to win, while Harris has a 41.3% chance. Trump&rsquo;s 16.3% advantage is his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-election-betting-odds-trump-takes-largest-lead-since-july-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"2024 election betting odds: Trump takes largest lead since July - Washington Examiner\">largest betting odds lead<\/a> since July, and he has now led for 11 consecutive days. Fresh off her &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3192119\/harris-fox-interview-immigration-biden-health\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>risky<\/a>&rdquo; Fox News interview with Bret Baier, Harris is nearly as big a betting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/washington-secrets\/3192872\/election-win-odds-sour-further-harris-fox-interview\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>longs hot<\/a> as Trump was on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/elections\/betting_odds\/2020_president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Election Day<\/a> 2020.<\/p>\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"67dc4018-a982-439d-b8b8-6e9a45a7a188\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"trump\"><\/div>\n<p><script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>According to Polymarket, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>leads<\/a> in all seven swing states. If <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-needs-an-unusually-likable-running-mate-like-doug-burgum\/\" title=\"Trump Requires a Remarkably Popular VP Choice such as Doug Burgum\">betting odds reflect<\/a> the outcome of the election, Trump would win 312 electoral votes in a swing state sweep.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title><strong><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Lichtman&rsquo;s prediction that Democratic candidates will outperform the polls this cycle comes as Republicans are <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7071878\/harris-democrats-swing-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>out-gaining<\/a> Democrats in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/trump-surges-ahead-of-harris-in-election-betting-odds-washington-examiner\/\" title=\"Trump surges ahead of Harris in election betting odds - Washington Examiner\">swing state voter registration<\/a>, particularly in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>Swing state voter registration has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/09\/29\/voter-registrations-surge-swing-states\/75090346007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>spiked<\/a> in 2024, and more names are being added to the rolls than the margin of victory in the last presidential election in these battleground states. With Republicans closing ground on Democrats in critical states, this may instead signify greater Republican turnout than the polls suggest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1836543\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1836543\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polls may be undervaluing Kamala Harris&#8217;s support, says historian Allan Lichtman<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2670,"featured_media":2356287,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Kamala-Harris-polls-turnout.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[32431,32438,15638,20009,32076],"class_list":["post-2356286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2024-election","tag-kamala-harris","tag-polls","tag-turnout","tag-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Kamala-Harris-polls-turnout.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2356286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2670"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2356286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2356286\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2356287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2356286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2356286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2356286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}