{"id":2355241,"date":"2024-10-15T14:18:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T18:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-election-betting-odds-trump-takes-lead-in-nearly-all-swing-states-washington-examiner\/"},"modified":"2024-10-15T14:19:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T18:19:00","slug":"2024-election-betting-odds-trump-takes-lead-in-nearly-all-swing-states-washington-examiner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2024-election-betting-odds-trump-takes-lead-in-nearly-all-swing-states-washington-examiner\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 election betting odds: Trump takes lead in nearly all swing states- Washington Examiner"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2F2024-election-betting-odds-trump-takes-lead-in-nearly-all-swing-states-washington-examiner%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2355241&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Former President Donald Trump is currently the betting \u2064favorite in \u200bnearly all swing states for \u2062the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/desantis-appears-to-be-a-popular-lead-for-2024-straw-poll-shows\/\" title=\"DeSantis Appears To Be A Popular Lead For 2024, Straw Poll Shows\">upcoming 2024 presidential election<\/a>, according to the latest odds\u200b from\u200b online betting platform Polymarket. He has gained significant leads over Vice President Kamala Harris \u200din key states \u2064such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, while Harris holds\u200d a narrow advantage in Nevada.\u2063 Nationally, Trump leads Harris by a margin of 10.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Recent\u200c data indicates that Republicans\u2063 are favored to win the \u2064Senate with \u200ba wider margin compared to earlier in the month, \u2064while Democrats \u2064still\u200c hold an\u200b advantage in the House. Betting odds align with polls in most swing states, although there are some discrepancies in others. If the betting odds match the election results, Trump would secure 306 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed for victory.<\/p>\n<p>As\u200b the election \u2064date \u2063approaches, both candidates \u2063are scheduled for major \u2064interviews, which could impact\u200b the shifting dynamics in betting odds and public \u200bperception. Public appearances have historically correlated with significant \u2064changes in election betting\u2063 odds.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"readmore\">\n    <button onclick=\"showReadMore()\" id=\"readmorebtn\">Read more&#8230;<\/button>\n<\/p>\n<hr id=\"line\">\n<span id=\"more\"><\/p>\n<p><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><\/p>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-button\"><i class=\"tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile\"><\/i><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search\" aria-labelledby=\"td-header-search-button\">\n<div class=\"tdb-drop-down-search-inner\">\n<form method=\"get\" class=\"tdb-search-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"tdb-aj-search\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/#\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Search\" class=\"tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle\" data-toggle=\"dropdown\"><i class=\"tdb-search-icon td-icon-search\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Trump takes betting odds lead in nearly all swing states<\/h1>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-title-line\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div id=\"Brid_1835886\" class=\"tpd-featured-video bridtv\"><\/div>\n<p>Former President <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonexaminer.com\/tag\/donald-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Donald Trump<\/a> is now the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3187209\/trump-largest-election-betting-odds-lead-july\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>betting favorite<\/a> in all but one swing state just over a week after he surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3125072\/election-wagers-insight-into-results-face-regulatory-threat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>election betting odds<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-paywall\">\n<p>According to online betting platform Polymarket, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>is leading<\/a> in Pennsylvania (+9%), Michigan (+6%), Wisconsin (+4%), Georgia (+27%), Arizona (+36%), and North Carolina (+25%). The bettors gave Harris a narrow 1% advantage over Trump in Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>Trump is leading Harris in the national odds by a greater margin (+10.8%) than any candidate has led since July, further <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3183476\/trump-surges-ahead-harris-election-betting-odds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>expanding on his lead<\/a> over the last week. Current 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/presidential-election-betting-odds-have-donald-trump-as-clear-favorite-in-2024\/\" title=\"Presidential Election Betting Odds Have Donald Trump as Clear Favorite in 2024\">presidential election betting odds<\/a> give Trump a 54.9% chance and Harris a 44.1% chance to win.<\/p>\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"67dc4018-a982-439d-b8b8-6e9a45a7a188\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"trump\"><\/div>\n<p><script data-cfasync=\"false\" src=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/cdn-cgi\/scripts\/5c5dd728\/cloudflare-static\/email-decode.min.js\"><\/script><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script> <\/p>\n<p>According to Maxim Lott and John Stossel&rsquo;s Election Betting Odds tracker, Republicans are favored to win the <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/SenateWithMap2024.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>Senate<\/a> by a widening margin, while Democrats are favored to win the <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/House-Control-2024.html#chart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>House<\/a>. The GOP has a 56-point advantage in the Senate betting odds, up from 37 points on Oct. 4, while Democrats have a 10.5-point advantage in the House betting odds, down from the 25-point lead they boasted on Oct. 4.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Do 2024 election betting odds match the polls?<\/h2>\n<p>The betting odds agreed with the polls in five of the seven battleground states, as RealClearPolling shows Trump leading in Pennsylvania (+0.3%), Michigan (+0.9%), Georgia (+0.5%), Arizona (+1.1%), and North Carolina (+0.5%).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>However, polls showed Trump leading in Nevada (+0.2%) while bettors are leaning toward Harris in the Silver State, and polls show Harris leading Trump in Wisconsin (+0.3%) even though bettors are leaning toward Trump in the Badger State.<\/p>\n<p>If the November results match the 2024 election betting odds, Trump would win 306 electoral votes while needing just 270 to win the presidency. If the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-big-biden-panic-the-president-is-trailing-but-perhaps-the-guilty-verdict-against-trump-will-save-him\/\" title=\"Biden&#039;s Challenge: Trailing President Hopes Trump Verdict Will Turn the Tide\">current polls reflect<\/a> the actual outcome, on the other hand, he would win 302 electoral votes. Both the polls and the odds predict a Trump victory four weeks out.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, a newly-inaugurated Trump would have to work with a Democratic-led House and a Republican-led Senate with a 52-48 GOP majority.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bettors only predicted two incumbents would lose in November, giving Montana Republican Tim Sheehy an 80.5% chance to defeat Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Ohio Republican challenger Bernie Moreno a 50.5% chance to beat incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).<\/p>\n<p>The Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Senate races are the only three others where bettors gave the incumbent party a notable chance to lose. Bettors gave Republican Dave McCormick a 23.4% chance to upset Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Republican Mike Rogers a 26.5% chance to beat Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Republican Eric Hovde a 23.5% chance of ousting Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).<\/p>\n<p>The polls and bettors agree on every race except Ohio, as Brown is leading Moreno by 2.6% on average. Otherwise, Casey is leading McCormick by 3.2%, Slotkin is up on Rogers by 2%, Baldwin is leading Hovde by 3%, and Sheehy is leading Tester by 7%.<\/p>\n<p>In the national polls, more predictive of the popular vote, Harris <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-harris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>leads<\/a> Trump by an average of 1.7%. This past week, a Harvard\/Harris poll had Trump trailing by 2 points, NBC News showed a tie, ABC News\/Ipsos had Harris up by 2, CBS News had Harris up by 3, and Rasmussen Reports had Trump up by 2.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The key to an &lsquo;October surprise&rsquo;<\/h2>\n<p>Public appearances have coincided with some of the largest shifts in election betting odds this cycle, and both candidates have major interviews lined up in the final stretch of the campaign.<\/p>\n<p>Harris will go on Fox News for the first time to be interviewed Wednesday by Brett Baier in what pundits call a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/opinion\/the-fox-news-interview-is-kamala-harriss-riskiest-media-play-yet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>risky<\/a> move, while Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/live-blog-posts\/trump-confirms-hes-going-on-joe-rogans-podcast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>confirmed<\/a> he would go on Joe Rogan&rsquo;s podcast for the first time, despite previously <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/112933460513899494\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>slamming<\/a> Rogan for supporting former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.&rsquo;s third-party campaign. Trump will also be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/presidential\/3186134\/fox-news-women-only-trump-town-hall\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title>holding<\/a> a woman-only town hall Wednesday on Fox News.<\/p>\n<p>Trump&rsquo;s odds reached their all-time high on July 13, when he survived an assassination attempt at a Butler, Pennsylvania, rally, and after the July 27 debate with President Joe Biden, the president dropped in the odds by 16.6 relative points.<\/p>\n<p>The former president lost 5.8 relative points to Harris after his July 31 Chicago interview with the National Association of Black Journalists, and his Sept. 10 presidential debate performance cost him 6.6%, resulting in Harris leading for 26 consecutive days.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Oct. 7, Harris&rsquo;s <em>60 Minutes<\/em> interview was released, and she drew criticism for not <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/green-hypocrisy-bbc-took-300k-from-saudi-arabia-national-oil-corp-last-year\/\" title=\"Green Hypocrisy: BBC Took 300K from Saudi Arabia National Oil Corp Last Year\">giving direct answers<\/a> to critical questions and instead offering a &ldquo;word salad.&rdquo; Harris dropped 3.4 relative points the day of that interview, and Trump has only gained momentum since then.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has led in the presidential election betting odds for nine consecutive days, which is the longest he has led since Harris took her first betting odds lead in August. If there will be any &ldquo;October surprise&rdquo; to swing the race at the last minute, it may coincide with a notable public appearance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> <script>!function(){var g=window;g.googletag=g.googletag||{},g.googletag.cmd=g.googletag.cmd||[],g.googletag.cmd.push(function(){g.googletag.pubads().setTargeting(\"has-featured-video\",\"true\")})}();<\/script><script>var _bp=_bp||[];_bp.push({\"div\":\"Brid_1835886\",\"obj\":{\"id\":\"27789\",\"width\":\"1280\",\"height\":\"720\",\"stickyDirection\":\"below\",\"video\":\"1835886\"}});<\/script><script defer src=\"https:\/\/services.brid.tv\/player\/build\/brid.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump leads betting odds in most swing states<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2670,"featured_media":2355242,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/donald-trump-election-2024.webp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[32431,33151,3634],"class_list":["post-2355241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2024-election","tag-betting-odds","tag-trump"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/donald-trump-election-2024.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2355241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2670"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2355241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2355241\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2355242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2355241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2355241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2355241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}